Saudi Arabia and its allies dispatched top security officials to Iran for talks on Monday, fearing a new U.S.-Israeli offensive that could plunge the Middle East into greater instability.
Pakistani military chief Asim Munir and Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin joined Saudi Prince Khalid bin Salman in Tehran for meetings with senior Iranian officials, including national security chief Mohsen Rezaei and President Masoud Pezeshkian.
The Tehran meeting comes at a tense time in the Middle East, as speculation grows that President Donald Trump may order new strikes against Iran after next week’s midterm elections. It is also the first high-level contact between Iran and Saudi Arabia since Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis stepped up attacks on Saudi targets last month.
The meeting will discuss “de-escalation” between parties involved in the “ongoing crisis”, said a Saudi Foreign Ministry official, Rayed Krimly. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told reporters that the talks could serve as a prelude to “establishing a regional security framework.”
“We have always emphasized that regional security can only be ensured by relying on the will and security considerations of countries in the region,” Baghaei added.
Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan represent the Mecca Alliance – a newly formed coalition of three of the region’s largest powers. The deal, under which an attack on one is considered an attack on all, has focused attention on the need to unite nuclear-armed Pakistan, Turkey’s military might and Saudi Arabia’s financial resources.
Pakistan has been a key intermediary between Washington and Tehran since the war began in February.
“The importance of the meeting lies mainly in its timing and the officials involved,” Hamidreza Azizi, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG) think tank, told CNN. “This comes at a time when the risk of a new round of wars between Iran and the United States is increasing, and all three members of the Mecca Pact have direct security interests at stake.”
The visit by Khalid bin Salman – a Saudi royal and brother of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the kingdom’s de facto ruler – surprised observers. Iran and Saudi Arabia represent competing religious ideologies and have been locked in a regional rivalry for decades, culminating in outright confrontation earlier this year after the United States and Israel launched a war against the Islamic Republic.
Iran hit Washington’s regional allies, including Saudi Arabia, after the United States and Israel killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as well as many of its military and top nuclear scientists in February. Iran’s allies and proxies, including those in Iraq and Yemen, have also struck Saudi oil installations and civilian infrastructure, putting unprecedented pressure on the kingdom.
Middle Eastern countries fear a new U.S. offensive against Iran could invite further Iranian retaliation after eight months of instability in the Middle East.
Sufficient US forces are now deployed in the region to carry out potential attacks, two US officials told CNN. The scope of new U.S. military operations would likely go beyond efforts to simply “mow the lawn” or maintain the status quo by striking Iranian radars, launchers and other assets that can be quickly replenished – as has been the case since Trump ended full combat operations earlier this year, the sources added.
After months of Iranian retaliation with missiles and drones against its U.S.-allied neighbors, Tehran has reduced the intensity of the strikes, instead focusing its strategy on creating economic uncertainty by trying to block the only waterway used by ships carrying a fifth of the world’s oil and gas daily.
Tehran has called on countries in the region to withdraw their American bases and stop depending on Washington for their defense. Most of Iran’s regional neighbors have militaries armed by the United States, but have slowly begun to diversify their arsenals and formalize new military alliances, amid concerns about Washington’s commitment to defending its allies.
The Mecca Alliance is part of a “broader effort” to develop a “more independent regional security architecture,” Danny Citrinowicz, former head of the Iranian branch of Israeli military intelligence, wrote on X.
“The decision to engage directly with Tehran is equally significant,” Citrinowicz added. “This reflects not only recognition of the Iranian regime, but also the understanding that Iran remains a central regional actor whose influence cannot simply be ignored. »
Iranian officials have welcomed the initiative, and some, including former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, see it as an opportunity to move toward a broader security framework between the region and away from dependence on the United States. Yet these developments do not yet signal an immediate diplomatic breakthrough, said Crisis Group’s Azizi.
“Tehran wants credible guarantees that any agreement would prevent another military attack, and it is difficult to see how Saudi Arabia, Turkey or Pakistan could provide such guarantees or exert sufficient influence over Trump to obtain them,” he said.
“Unless these countries bring something new that could change Tehran or Washington’s calculations, the meeting is unlikely to result in significant progress,” Azizi added. “For now, this looks more like a last-minute attempt to prevent a resumption of war than the start of a new diplomatic process.”
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