With most votes counted, Israel’s elections produced no clear winner, creating weeks – if not months – of political uncertainty. Several outcomes and scenarios can come into play.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc has lost the majority it held in the outgoing parliament. With about 53 seats projected, it is far from the 61-seat threshold needed to form a government out of the 120-seat Knesset.
Netanyahu could try to recruit one of the opposition parties to join his government, but they have all ruled out cooperating with him during the campaign. Politicians who have joined in recent years have often found themselves significantly weakened and with little substantial influence on policy. Netanyahu could also try to pursue individual defectors from the opposition, but that would require several defections to close the gap.
The opposition, on the other hand, has won a majority in Parliament, but its path to power is strewn with ideological, national and personal divisions.
Netanyahu’s main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, is expected to win 21 seats, but he will not be able to reach the 61-seat majority without the two Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, which are expected to win a record 19 seats. On Wednesday, Yair Golan, the leader of the left-wing Democrats, called on his partners to include Arab parties in the bloc, rejecting what he called Netanyahu’s “racist division between Jewish and Arab votes.”
But two right-wing allies of Eisenkot oppose the formation of a government including the Arab parties or a minority government relying on their external support.
Given the apparent impasse, another scenario would be a national unity government involving Netanyahu’s Likud and one or more opposition parties, an option that would replace his current hard-line government. Netanyahu and opposition leaders ruled out the possibility during the campaign, but it could be one of the only ways to avoid new elections.
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