The race for a Senate seat in Texas may be about to be won by Democrats for the first time since 1988.
Two closing polls show James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by similar margins in the race — a huge change for a candidate who until recently was a relatively unknown Democrat at the state level.
James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton: What the latest polls show
Talarico scored 51.3 percent to Paxton’s 45.4 percent in an AtlasIntel poll, giving Talarico a 5.9-point lead heading into this week’s vote.
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The survey surveyed 1,678 respondents from October 28 to November 1 using AtlasIntel’s online random digital recruitment method. It reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.
Meanwhile, a New York Times/Siena College the poll gives Talarico a 7-point advantage with 50 percent to Paxton’s 43.
The Texas side surveyed 5,708 likely voters from October 23 to November 1. With a reported margin of error of about plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, Talarico’s lead is about double that figure. The result therefore indicates an advantage rather than a statistical tie, but uncertainty remains as to the exact magnitude of the advance.
The last two polls put Talarico in the lead, by six points in AtlasIntel and by seven points in New York Times/Siena. The similarity between the results strengthens the evidence that the Democrat held a late advantage in the polls, but neither poll predicted the outcome of the election.
Both polls show some of Talarico’s strongest margins in the final stages of the race, although other recent surveys have shown a closer fight.
YouGov had Talarico four points ahead, Texas Southern University had a two-point lead and CNN/SSRS put its advantage at six points. A Quantus Insights poll gave Paxton a one-point lead. A Trafalgar Group survey conducted from October 31 to November 1 found the candidates were tied at 48 percent.
Talarico, 37, is a former public school teacher who currently represents part of the Austin area in the Texas House. Described as an economic populist, the Democrat has announced political proposals. These include repealing tax cuts for the top 1% of earners, establishing universal child care, and capping credit card interest rates.
Talarico supports a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, health care reform, and institutional reforms, including term limits for members of Congress and a ban on stock trading in Congress.
Ken Paxton, 63, is the Republican candidate and attorney general of Texas; it’s a position he’s held since 2015 after serving in the Texas Legislature. Paxton reached the general election after defeating Republican Senator John Cornyn for the GOP nomination.
A staunch ally of President Donald Trump, Paxton has pledged to advance the president’s America First agenda in the Senate. This would be done by cutting taxes, strengthening immigration controls and completing construction of the border wall. He opposes abortion, supports gun rights and has called for cuts in federal spending and regulation.
On the economic front, Paxton proposed new tax deductions for housing, health care and family expenses.
Issues for control of the Senate
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, counting the two independents who unite with Democrats on the Democratic side.
Since Republican Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie, Democrats need to reach 51 seats to gain control, meaning they need to produce a net gain of four seats.
The simplest path would be to keep all 13 seats on the ballot, including competitive races like Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire, while flipping at least four Republican-held seats.
Talarico’s victory would give Democrats one of the four Republican seats they need, forcing the party to need three more net seats if it succeeds in defending all of its existing seats. While a victory for Ken Paxton would preserve the Texas seat for Republicans, forcing Democrats to find the four gains needed elsewhere.
Why the Texas Race Matters
Democrats have not won a statewide office in Texas since 1994, and the last Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate in Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988.
Republicans continued to comfortably win recent Senate elections. In 2024, Republican Ted Cruz defeated Democrat Colin Allred 53.1% to 44.5%, a margin of 8.6 points. The state also supported Trump by about 14 points in the 2024 presidential election.
Turnout has already surpassed the last midterm election, with more than 7.6 million early votes already cast, or more than 94% of the total 2022 turnout.
At a rally in Lubbock on October 27, Talarico addressed about 4,000 attendees and declared that “Texans are ready for change.”
“We are done with extremism and corruption. We are done with divisive politics and we are ready for something new,” he told the crowd.
At another rally, also in Lubbock the same evening, President Trump spoke to a crowd gathered for Paxton.
“If you go out and vote, we’ll have a huge victory in Texas,” Trump told his supporters, adding, “We can’t lose the votes. It’s very close and they can change things.”
Trump’s apparent concern about the Democrat’s ability to take Texas was echoed by other Texas Republicans.
“Texas is excruciatingly close,” Sen. Ted Cruz said on an episode of his podcast last week. “We could lose Texas.”
“Now some conservatives are saying, ‘I don’t trust the polls. They’re all wrong,'” Cruz said. “Well, let me tell you, there is a bias in the polls. They do lean left, but I can tell you, after running many campaigns and looking at many numbers, that this data is not wrong. The Democrats are overwhelmingly outperforming the Republicans.”
Texas Comptroller Don Huffines, running for state CFO, also issued a warning about X this week. “We are losing Texas,” he warned. “Texas is the foundation of the Republican Party in America. When the foundations crumble, EVERYTHING crumbles. When we lose Texas, we lose the United States.”
Newsweek Reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors about this story: Daniel Orton And James Debens
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