Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico had his best polling result in his race against Republican Ken Paxton, with a new New York Times/Siena College survey giving it a seven-point lead in Texas.
The poll, released Sunday, Nov. 1, finds Talarico leading Paxton 50 to 43 percent among likely voters, giving the Democrat his biggest advantage in the race ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.
The result represents a significant boost for Talarico, who is trying to secure a Democratic Senate victory in a state that has not elected a Democrat to the chamber since 1988.
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The survey is particularly noteworthy given Siena’s reputation as one of the most reputable polling organizations in the country. VoteHub gives the New York Times/Siena voting operation an A grade.
It was Talarico’s best result from a nationally recognized polling organization in the contest, although an April survey by the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project already had him eight points ahead of Paxton, 42 percent to 34 percent. That survey, however, included registered voters rather than likely voters.
The RealClearPolitics polling average also gives Talarico a lead, although by a narrower margin than the latest NYT/Siena survey. The average of polls taken between October 15 and November 1 puts Talarico at 49 percent to Paxton’s 46.5 percent, an advantage of 2.5 points.
News week contacted Talarico and Paxton’s campaigns via email Monday for comment.
Talarico’s chances of winning rise in prediction markets
The latest poll result comes as predictive markets increasingly favor Talarico to win the Senate race.
On Polymarket, the Democrat was trading at about 76 percent to win, compared to Paxton’s 26 percent, according to the latest available market figures.
Kalshi also gave Talarico the edge, estimating his chances of victory at about 74 percent, compared to the Republican’s 26 percent.
Kalshi’s margin forecast suggests Talarico could win by about 3.8 percentage points.
Predictive market figures represent implied probabilities based on trading prices rather than conventional surveys and may change as traders react to new developments.
Nonetheless, markets suggest Talarico has emerged as the front-runner heading into Election Day, although Texas has consistently supported Republican Senate candidates for decades.
At a recent campaign event, Talarico described the election as a battle between “the powers that be and the powers that should be,” accusing powerful interests of having “bought and paid for Ken Paxton.” He said his campaign supports “teachers and nurses, farmers and ranchers” and other everyday Texans, adding: “These Texans are my team, they are the reason I’m in this race.”
Ken Paxton makes his final pitch
Paxton, meanwhile, has continued his campaign across Texas as he attempts to overcome Talarico’s electoral advantage.
Speaking at a rally in San Antonio on Sunday, the Republican highlighted affordability and his proposed “Texas Promise Protection Plan,” which he described as an economic vision intended to put thousands of dollars back in the pockets of Texans.
He also acknowledged the competitiveness of the contest, telling his supporters: “Every poll shows it’s going to go down to the wire.”
Paxton urged Republicans to mobilize before Tuesday’s vote, saying, “Make sure every Republican votes.” ” He concluded with President Trump’s familiar rallying cry: “Fight, fight, fight.”
However, Paxton’s final campaign schedule also attracted attention after his announced election-eve appearance at the Alamo was no longer listed, although the San Antonio landmark was initially billed as the highlight of his two-week “Come and Take It” bus tour.
The campaign’s updated schedule instead listed other appearances in Texas and did not publicly explain the change.
Paxton was also interrupted by a protester during a recent campaign appearance. The heckler was escorted outside in an uncomfortable moment captured on video.
As Election Day approaches, the race remains closely watched as Talarico seeks to translate his recent gains in the polls into votes, while Paxton hopes to retain control of a Senate seat long held by Republicans.
Newsweek reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Robert Greenall And Matthew Canon
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