Tuesday’s midterm elections will determine control of Congress for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency. American voters will decide whether Trump maintains his Republican grip on Washington or recedes into lame duck status after a Democratic triumph.
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If Republicans win, Trump could go another two years facing little congressional resistance and pass major policy measures. If Democrats win one or both chambers, the president’s remaining legislative priorities would be seriously tested, and even the basic functions of government could come to an impasse.
Prognosticators and public polling have put Democrats in a favorable position heading into Election Day, particularly regarding Republican control of the House. However, the balance of power will only be decided after the ballots are counted – a process that could take days, or even weeks in some cases. The Senate is expected to be particularly tight, and if the balance of power swings back to Alaska, the nation may have to wait while the state counts.
“The election results could trigger an immediate market reaction, particularly as the Senate outcome becomes clearer,” Stifel’s Washington Policy Strategy Group wrote in an analyst report Sunday, in which it predicted Democrats will win the House while the Senate remains too close to call. “However, the market’s knee-jerk trend may reverse as investors recognize that stalemate remains the most likely political outcome in either case.”
Republicans also control the Senate, with a larger majority than in the House.
If Democrats capture one chamber of Congress, policymaking in Washington would be further stymied. Single-party budget reconciliation bills, the procedural vehicle for most major spending and policy changes to the current status quo from narrow congressional margins, would become impossible. Bipartisanship would be needed to advance legislation, making must-pass bills such as government funding programs, defense spending and the looming debt ceiling increase more important — and more controversial.
In a divided Congress, the party that does not control the White House typically takes advantage of moments such as government funding and raising the debt ceiling to extract concessions from the majority party, a practice that can lead to brinkmanship.
“If Republicans defy conventional wisdom and maintain their majority in the Senate, then we expect recovery in areas that might react negatively to a Democratic victory,” Stifel wrote. “Democrats would continue to govern the House and gridlock would prevail. In this scenario, Senate Republicans would act as a check on both Democrats and many of Trump’s populist impulses.”
Democrats are also widely expected to use their majority in Congress to launch investigations into the White House and companies that worked with the Trump administration. The majority party gains subpoena power in congressional committees.
Polls indicate that a Democratic victory in the House and Senate is possible. In that case, Democrats could more aggressively pursue cross-party reconciliation measures that would not become law but give the party a megaphone ahead of the 2028 presidential election. Trump would still have the option to veto legislation passed by Congress, which would significantly limit the chances of Democratic bills becoming law.
Much-needed legislation would be slightly easier to pass in Congress if Democrats controlled both chambers. But deals would still need to be negotiated with the White House, and the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold could still prove an obstacle that requires bipartisanship. It is very unlikely that the party that wins control of the Senate will get at least 60 seats.
Democratic lawmakers in the House and Senate would jump at the chance to conduct investigations into the White House and the business community if they had the chance.
Whether it’s a divided Congress or a unified Democratic Congress, analysts expect Trump’s use of executive orders to increase due to congressional gridlock.
It is possible that Republicans will retain control of both houses of Congress. In this case, the rest of Trump’s legislative agenda could continue to pass and the status quo would be maintained.
Democrats would still retain some influence, largely thanks to the Senate’s 60-vote filibuster threshold, but would be limited in their investigations of the White House and business affairs.
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