Midterm races to watch as Americans deliver their verdict on Donald Trump

Is Donald Trump about to lose control of the US Congress?

Polling data points to a “blue wave,” giving Democrats majorities in the 435-seat House of Representatives and the 100-seat Senate. According to the latest New York Times/Siena poll, Democrats are ahead in almost all seven Senate elections, with at least a five-point lead in four of them.

The final days leading up to the midterm vote have been dramatic, including a feud in Michigan between Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed and the woman he beat in the party’s primary, Haley Stevens. Alaska Democrats have also been involved in fielding a candidate aimed at siphoning off votes from their rival in the Republican Senate race.

In the face of voter concern over inflation and affordability, President Trump’s final message focused on non-economic issues – setbacks to his culture war issues – to boost turnout among his base.

Here are the races to watch:

1. Georgia and North Carolina: first clues about the “blue wave”

Important East Coast results will start arriving from 7 p.m. EST in the early states, while the Western states will extend past midnight.

The Senate elections in Georgia and North Carolina will be among the first reported, making them a barometer of how Democrats are performing in competitive Senate races and whether the “blue wave” is real. Both polls were initially considered random results, but now lean heavily in favor of Democrats.

2. New York and Pennsylvania: Republicans distanced from Trump

Only two House Republicans are defending districts that voted for Kamala Harris for president in 2024: Mike Lawler of New York and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania.

These lawmakers could be the first Republican casualties of a Democratic surge — and a test of whether heavy donor spending has helped isolate them.

Lawler entered Congress in 2023 as part of a group of four New York Republicans who were signaling a potential rightward shift in a historically liberal state. The three other Republicans he entered the House with that year — including scandal-ravaged George Santos — left, replaced by Democrats. Lawler and Fitzpatrick have at times tried to distance themselves from the president, with Fitzpatrick voting in the House against Trump-backed bills more than any other Republican.

Campaigns and outside groups spent a combined $52 million to elect Lawler and Fitzpatrick. Each candidate blanketed the airwaves with ads aimed at establishing them as moderates. Their Democratic opponents were bolstered by about $33 million in spending through ads featuring Trump.

3. Kansas and Iowa: A test for heartland Republicans

A big change has occurred in the Midwest, a Republican stronghold in the last election. Trump’s tariffs and his war in Iran have driven up prices of equipment, fertilizer and diesel for farming communities, hurting rural voters.

Kansas voters haven’t chosen a Democratic senator since the 1930s. But the NYT-Siena poll released Sunday gives the party’s candidate, Adam Hamilton, a five-point lead. The Methodist pastor took on the Republican Party’s weakest issues under Trump: affordable energy, food and health care.

In Iowa’s U.S. Senate race, Democrat Josh Turek — a self-described “common-sense prairie populist” — is in a tight race with Ashley Hinson. Trump has rallied behind her in recent days, although the NYT-Siena poll also showed him slightly behind.

If Democrats push into solidly red Kansas and Iowa, it will bode ill for Republicans, showing that kitchen table issues are eroding a core of voters — and their control of the Senate is fading.

4. Texas and Ohio: Can Democrats defy huge Republican spending?

Democrats’ big hopes in the Senate also rest on Ohio and Texas, where a deluge of spending has swept through in recent weeks.

Only one Democrat has won a major race in Ohio in the past decade: Sherrod Brown. He is fighting to reclaim the Senate seat he held for 18 years but lost in 2024.

He faces Jon Husted, a Republican appointed to finish Vice President JD Vance’s term. He served as Ohio’s lieutenant governor, secretary of state and speaker of the Ohio House — but Trump’s campaign for him was notable for the president’s repeated references to his “pile of muscles” behind him.

The race has attracted more than $360 million in outside spending, including significant sums from the crypto industry, which aims to block Brown, whose role on the Senate Banking Committee has already drawn anger.

Texas is the Democrats’ holy grail, as the state has not elected a single party candidate to the Senate since 1988, despite predictions that demographic changes would turn the state blue. Joe Biden lost Texas by 5.5 points in 2020. Harris lost the state to Trump by nearly 14 points.

The Democrats’ hopes are this time reinforced by the weaknesses of the Republican candidate: Ken Paxton, supported by Trump, was impeached in 2023 for corruption, embezzlement of public funds and retaliation against whistleblowers. Trump has continually made fun of his appearance.

Paxton faces James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian and former teacher whom Republicans have called too progressive and not manly enough for Texas. The recent NYT-Siena poll puts him seven points ahead of Paxton.

But the Republican is buoyed by more than $440 million in outside spending, including from Trump’s Maga Inc Super Pac and Elon Musk’s America Pac.

5. Michigan and Minnesota: How popular are left-wing Democrats?

El-Sayed’s race in Michigan attracted international attention, particularly in the final days of the contest, when the progressive Democrat lost the support of a moderate he had defeated in the party’s primary. Stevens accused El-Sayed of siding with anti-Semites and said she would vote for her Republican rival, Mike Rogers.

The race in Michigan and another in Minnesota will show whether the left-wing anti-establishment message that has been popular in deeply Democratic parts of the country, like New York City, can win in swing states.

Both states have elected Democratic senators for decades and should be easy victories if a national “blue wave” is underway.

Yet the U.S. Senate elections are surprisingly close.

RealClearPolitics polling averages put El-Sayed 5.3 points ahead in Michigan and Peggy Flanagan 5.4 points ahead in Minnesota.

El-Sayed, a former public health official and political outsider, combined left-wing economic policies such as expanding Medicare and raising taxes on billionaires with a vocal criticism of U.S. foreign policy toward Israel and Iran. If elected, he would also be the first Muslim member of the U.S. Senate.

Republicans spent $170 million on an ad blitz in Michigan, including $50 million on attack ads against El-Sayed and what they call his “dangerous radicalism.” Trump called him a “jihadist,” while Rogers claimed he was bought by the Muslim Brotherhood.

El-Sayed says his opponents focus more on his name than his policies and has downplayed his feud with Haley.

In Minnesota, Flanagan, who defeated a better-funded centrist rival in the Democratic primary, ran a campaign focused on fighting corruption, expanding access to health care and opposing tariffs imposed on neighboring Canada.

A defeat in either race could threaten Democratic control of Congress. The results in both states, whether won or lost, will also fuel an in-depth debate about the future of the party and the role of its progressive wing.