More Democrats than Republicans vote in advance.
Pollster Nate Silver revealed the glaring red sign that the Republican Party is headed for disaster this Election Day.
Silver, who became famous as one of the few pollsters to predict a Donald Trump victory in 2016, said early voting trends show Democrats turning out in far greater numbers than Republicans.
“And so far in the early voting data, you’ve seen irregular Democratic voters turn out, but not Republicans,” Silver explained on the website. Podcast Shane Smith Has Questions. “So they have to get their voters to the polls to take advantage of the red territory on the map.”
Nate Silver, 48, says there are warning signs for Republicans.
Shane Smith has questions Podcast/YouTube
He added: “I don’t think anyone expects them to save the House unless there’s a gigantic polling error and everyone’s polling error, and the instrumentation is totally wrong.”
However, he said “Democrats can’t take anything for granted in the Senate.”
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Silver, 48, also explained that polls have previously missed Trump voters because they are considered low-propensity voters who turn out only for Trump, and are therefore difficult to measure as a voting bloc.
“So white working-class voters, some Hispanic voters…much like young Hispanic men, young black men, young Asian men, voted for Trump in ’24,” he explained. “They may have been missed by the pollsters.”
“Are they going to vote for a Ken Paxton in Texas or a Roger Marshall in Kansas? History might say not,” he added.
“A lot of it depends on turnout, particularly Republican turnout,” Silver continued. “I think we have a good sense of the history of Democratic enthusiasm over these midterms, when they even had a satisfactory midterm in 2022.”
Early voting data shows Americans are turning out in droves ahead of next week’s midterm elections.
So far, more than 43 million voters have cast ballots, according to data from the University of Florida Election Lab. For comparison, during the 2022 midterm cycle, approximately 46 million Americans voted during the entire early voting period.
Black and Hispanic voters turned out at high levels, blocks that were generally reliably Democratic but who came out for Trump in previous elections.
Trump asked his supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot.
Looking at the data broken down by party affiliation, Democrats have already come forward, particularly in key states that they plan to keep or turn blue.
Democratic enthusiasm has been particularly strong in Texas and Georgia, where Democratic voters have slightly higher turnout among infrequent voters.
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