Nate Silver’s predictions for the midterm elections shifted slightly in favor of Republicans after he removed a series of false polls that he said were about 1 point more favorable to Democrats than the broader consensus.
The famed polling analyst said the biggest change occurred in Michigan, where Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed’s lead fell from 3.6 points to 3. Silver noted the move also reflected the addition of a Marist poll to the model that showed El-Sayed 2 points ahead of former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers.
“Overall, our forecasts are little changed, although some of that is because strong generic polls came in this morning for Democrats,” Silver posted on X Wednesday morning.
The fake polls came from Wedgewood Polling, which revealed Tuesday that it had fabricated most of its polls. News week corrected and retracted articles containing data from the Wedgewood polls.
Silver Bulletin Adjustments: What’s Changed?
Silver said Wedgewood was permanently banned from his aggregations going forward, noting that removing polls, which tended to be about 1 point more favorable to Democrats, had shifted the numbers in favor of Republicans in some cases.
The most notable change was Michigan’s Senate race. Some other races saw slight declines from Tuesday, including Republican Sen. Susan Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine. Both saw their support drop slightly by 0.1 and 0.2 percent.
The overall voting average remained largely unchanged, with Democrats falling from 51.7 percent on Tuesday to 51.5 percent on Wednesday, and Republicans falling from 42 percent to 41.9 percent.
In total, between 15 and 17 polls fabricated by Wedgewood were cited by different sites before being deleted on Wednesday.
“Previously, Wedgewood fielded requests from multiple poll aggregators and answered questions about their identity, methods and funding, which is why their polls were then aggregated,” Silver wrote on his site Wednesday.
Wedgewood surveys: what you need to know
On Tuesday, Wedgewood released a statement acknowledging that the vast majority of its polls were not based on real survey data. The group said it wanted to demonstrate how easy it was for a new polling company to gain credibility with media organizations and polling aggregators.
The admission came after FiftyPlusOne researchers examined purported raw data from surveys released by Wedgewood, including a Mississippi Senate poll, and discovered irregularities that raised questions about their authenticity. When confronted, Wedgewood issued a public confession.
Major polling aggregators and media organizations began removing Wedgewood data from their databases and coverage on Wednesday.
Races that had been included in the polls released by Wedgewood included the Michigan Senate seat, the Louisiana Republican Senate primary, and the Mississippi Senate race.
Contact Newsweek editors about this story: Jason Lemon And Dave Siminoff.
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