WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — With more than 95% of votes counted, New Zealand election No definitive victory for either the right or the left was obtained on Saturday, but the conservative government in place was on the verge of a very slim majority which could allow it to obtain a precarious return to power.
That of Christophe Luxon The National Party and its minor coalition partners, the libertarian ACT and the populist NZ First, were closing in on the slimmest possible return – with just one seat. He suggested that securing a second term could require lengthy negotiations and would depend on vote counts after Election Day, which have historically been skewed to the left.
The left bloc, led by Labor and Chris Hipkins, does not appear to have won a majority. However, when the New Zealand Electoral Commission released the tallies, it became clear the night would end with no certainty over who would form the next government, a process that could take weeks.
Luxon did not claim victory in a speech to supporters at National headquarters in Auckland after midnight.
“National is once again the largest party in Parliament and we have the opportunity to form the next government,” Luxon said. “But I have to tell you right now that he’s too close to follow.”
Earlier, at Labor headquarters in Upper Hutt, outside Wellington, a smiling Hipkins did not concede defeat.
“Tonight, New Zealand has spoken,” Hipkins told his supporters. “It might take us a little longer to figure out exactly what you said.”
Yet the uncertain outcome was punishing for both National and Labor, the main political parties that have long dominated New Zealand politics. Both received less than 30% of the vote, highlighting opinion polls leading up to Election Day that showed little public enthusiasm for either party.
Political newcomer who has gained popularity prepares to enter Parliament
Voters instead strengthened the power of minor parties on the ideological flanks and propelled to power a centrist political newcomer, Qiulae Wong of the Opportunity Party, who promised a nonpartisan, pragmatic agenda that draws on socially liberal, technocratic, and pro-environmental ideals.
It was too early to know whether the support of Wong, 38, whose party appeared poised to enter parliament for the first time, would be necessary for any leader seeking to form a government majority.
New Zealanders do not elect prime ministers. Instead, they voted twice, once for their preferred party and once to select a local representative.
Parties must either win a constituency seat or win 5% of the preferred party’s vote to enter Parliament. New party entrants are rare and Opportunity, based on current results, would be the first in over a decade.
The extent of Wong’s success was still undecided, with Saturday’s tally showing that Opportunity had just crossed the 5% threshold, giving the party seven seats.
Wong said that while she held the tie-breaking power, she was open to negotiating with a conservative government or a left-wing government and would deal first with the major party that won the most votes.
The right-wing bloc may not need her, and Luxon has ruled out governing with Opportunity. Analysts, however, say both major party leaders would likely answer the phone if Wong held the only path to power.
The first results show that the conservatives have a very small majority
To govern, a coalition of parties must hold more than half of the seats in Parliament. The total number of seats is determined by official calculations on election night, based on the particularities of the country’s voting.
Saturday’s figures showed there could be a Parliament of 130 seats, of which 66 would be needed to achieve a majority. However, parties negotiating shared governance arrangements would prefer a more comfortable margin. The results suggested a coalition of National, ACT and NZ First would hold 67 seats, a number that fluctuated throughout the night.
The 67 included 42 for National, 13 for ACT and 12 for NZ First – a drop for National and a gain for both minor parties. The outcome will likely cause headaches for Luxon, whose critics have criticized his political inexperience during his tenure in a power-sharing deal with two seasoned and savvy politicians, ACT’s David Seymour and NZ First’s Winston Peters.
Both will want greater influence in any coalition over Saturday’s results, and Luxon’s woes won’t end there.
Conservative party lawmakers who spoke to the media Saturday evening avoided declaring victory. So-called special votes cast by New Zealanders who live overseas or travel on polling day are counted later and historically favor the left.
In the last four elections, National lost one or two seats when the special votes were counted, while left-wing parties gained between one and three additional seats.
Saturday’s results also suggest a shock exit from Parliament for some of the national government’s most senior figures, including the outgoing government’s Finance Minister, Nicola Willis, Speaker of the House of Representatives, Gerry Brownlee, Defense and Justice Minister, Paul Goldsmith, and Attorney General and Transport Minister, Chris Bishop.
The left bloc has not succeeded so far
Meanwhile, the left bloc, led by Hipkins and the Labor Party, held a total of 56 seats, although their numbers also fluctuated. The environmentally conscious Greens were celebrating their best ever result with 16 seats in Parliament, with Labor taking 35 and Te Pāti Māori, an indigenous rights group, taking five.
The disparity between Labour’s 35 seats and National’s 42 – despite similar vote percentages – comes from the way seat allocation is calculated in New Zealand’s electoral system.
Hipkins was seeking a second chance at power after a resounding defeat three years agobut he had not benefited much from Luxon’s declining popularity in pre-election opinion polls.
The results showed that minor parties on the left and right won more seats than in the 2023 elections, which propelled Luxon to power.
Analysts had suggested that economic difficulties including inflation, the cost of living and unemployment – and apathy towards the mandates of Luxon or Hipkins – would see smaller parties grow in popularity, granting them greater bargaining power to form a governing coalition and forcing the main parties to implement more of their programs.
Voting began on October 26 and ended on Saturday, with nearly 3.8 million people eligible to participate. New Zealand is a country in the South Pacific with a population of 5.6 million.
The results of 95% of the votes cast are expected by the end of Saturday evening. A final, verified tally is expected on Nov. 27, including special votes.
After the final count, coalition negotiations between the presumed ruling parties often take weeks, even when their majority is clear.
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