The survey found Hochul leading Blakeman 54 to 40 percent among likely voters in New York, compared to a 50 to 41 percent advantage noted in Siena’s September poll.
Mamdani’s approval rating among city voters rose to 69%, up from 60% last month, while the share who viewed him unfavorably fell from 31% to 28%. Statewide, the mayor’s approval rating was little changed, at 47% favorable and 43% unfavorable, compared to 46% to 44% in September.
For the first time in a Siena poll in his five years as governor, a majority of likely voters also viewed Hochul favorably. Her favorability rating rose to 51%, up from 48% last month, while 45% viewed her unfavorably. His job approval rating also increased to 51%, up from 48% in September.
“Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is widening rather than narrowing,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said.
Hochul led Blakeman 67% to 23% in New York, while the two were nearly tied in the downstate suburbs, where Hochul held a 49% to 47% advantage, and in the upstate, where she led 49% to 48%.
Siena also found that Hochul was ahead of Blakeman 51% to 40% among independents, compared to Blakeman’s 44% to 39% advantage among independents and others in September.
A separate Marist University poll released Wednesday also found Hochul leading statewide, leading Blakeman 53% to 42% among likely voters. But Marist showed Blakeman leading 49-39 percent among independents, in contrast to Siena’s advantage for Hochul.
An Oct. 21 Quinnipiac University poll also found Blakeman leading among independents, 51% to 44%, while putting Hochul ahead by 14 points statewide.
Blakeman lashed out Wednesday against the Siena and Marist elections, accusing pollsters of trying to discourage Republican participation.
“Today’s polls are nothing more than a voter suppression tactic designed to discourage Republicans and manipulate the outcome of this election,” Blakeman said in a statement.
His campaign pointed to conflicting findings from independent voters and differences in the demographic makeup of the polls, while saying its own internal surveys showed a “neck-and-neck race.” The release does not provide figures from these surveys or evidence that any of these polls were designed to suppress participation.
Marist also painted a less favorable picture of Hochul than Siena, finding that 41 percent of likely voters viewed the governor favorably, compared to 51 percent who viewed her unfavorably.
The Siena survey also found that 68% of likely voters expected Hochul to win re-election, compared to 23% who expected Blakeman to win.
“Even Republicans aren’t confident their candidate will win, as 49% think Blakeman will win, but 40% of Republican voters say Hochul will win re-election,” Greenberg said.
Blakeman’s favorable rating stands at 39% favorable and 40% unfavorable, up from 35% and 34%, respectively, last month. The share of voters who did not form an opinion about him fell from 31% to 21%.
Despite Hochul’s lead, neither candidate convinced a majority of voters that they would make life more affordable for average New Yorkers. When asked which candidate would do it, 30% chose Hochul, 27% chose Blakeman and 35% said neither.
Trump and Mamdani on the campaign trail
Mamdani’s stronger position in New York comes as Blakeman has repeatedly sought to tie Hochul to the Democratic socialist mayor, while the governor’s campaign has focused heavily on Blakeman’s relationship with President Donald Trump, which remains deeply unpopular with New York voters.
As part of its closing argument, Hochul’s campaign on Tuesday began airing three new attack ads as part of a multimillion-dollar statewide campaign, accusing the Republican of supporting Medicaid cuts, rising health insurance costs and aggressive immigration enforcement.
For the second month in a row, a Siena poll finds voters are more likely to view Trump’s support as a liability for Blakeman than Mamdani’s support as a liability for Hochul.
In Wednesday’s survey, 48% said Trump’s support had been negative for Blakeman’s campaign, compared to 28% who viewed it positively. Mamdani’s approval, meanwhile, was seen as positive for Hochul by 45% and negative by 30%.
The questions measured voters’ perceptions of how endorsements affected campaigns, rather than whether either endorsement would change their own vote.
Trump remained unpopular statewide, with 61% viewing him unfavorably and 36% viewing him favorably.
The poll also finds that Democratic incumbents hold double-digit leads in New York’s other statewide elections. Attorney General Letitia James led Republican Saritha Komatireddy 54% to 39%, while State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli led Republican Joseph Hernandez 59% to 32%.
Democrats also led Republicans 54% to 39% in the congressional generic ballot, which asks voters which party they would support in the House of Representatives without naming specific candidates. That compares to a 51% to 40% Democratic advantage in September.
Siena surveyed 807 likely voters in New York from October 19-22. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Marist surveyed 1,448 registered voters Oct. 22-25, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points among likely voters.
This story was updated at 10:30 a.m.
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