New Zealand is set for one of the tightest elections in years, with the incumbent conservative coalition facing an uncertain path to power and polls indicating a millennial newcomer will become kingmaker.
Support for two parties that have dominated Wellington politics for almost a century – the center-right National Party and the center-left Labor Party – have fallen below 30% respectively in public polls, with voters turning to players further to the right, to the left and to a centrist party that could enter Parliament for the first time.
Frustrated by the soaring cost of living, stubbornly high unemployment and a stagnant economy in recent years, voters are looking beyond their traditional choices on Saturday.
The centrist Opportunity Party, led by Qiulae Wong, a 38-year-old former sustainable business consultant and mother of two who goes by “Q” for short, is shaking up the race. She entered politics just a year ago when she responded to a job offer for the party leadership position.
His party, which presents itself as both pro-business and pro-climate and promises a property tax as well as a universal basic income to replace welfare payments, appears poised to secure enough votes to cross the 5% threshold required to gain seats in Parliament, according to current polls.
This would make them the first completely foreign party (without involving established politicians) to do so in 30 years – a “hugely significant” feat according to Lara Greaves, associate professor of politics at Victoria University of Wellington.
“There hasn’t really been anything like this, and we’ve seen a number of well-funded attempts,” she told CNN, explaining that the party found appeal among people “frustrated by the status quo.”
If Saturday’s results reflect those of the polls, Opportunity would hold the balance of power – with the incumbent right and opposition left-wing coalition groups needing their support. support to obtain a majority.
In effect, this means Wong could choose his government, and his party is happy to work with both sides.
But Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who leads the National-led right-wing coalition government, has already ruled out a post-election deal with Opportunity. He could still face the difficult choice of going back or losing power.
Neither Luxon, who faced two caucus votes of confidence in his leadership this year, nor his main opponent Chris Hipkins of the Labor Party (himself a former prime minister) have been able to endear themselves to the public like former leaders Jacinda Ardern and John Key.
Their relative unpopularity broke a decades-long trend of battle royale-style campaigns between major party leaders, placing more attention on minor party candidates and putting them in a position to have significant influence over the direction of the next government.
Coalitions are almost constant in the South Pacific nation’s mixed member proportional voting (MMP) system, but minor parties traditionally support players, are granted a tiny proportion of ministerial posts and limited policy concessions.
The strong position minor parties find themselves in this year is “unprecedented territory”, says Greaves. “This will be the first time we see these coalition deals where the smaller parties are actually saying, ‘Hey, we got a lot of the votes. You need to stop treating us like kids.'”
But that makes it “very difficult to know what you’re voting for,” she said, explaining that marginal policies that receive little attention during the campaign can ultimately end up on the government’s agenda after negotiations.
The incumbent National Coalition – New Zealand’s most right-wing government in a generation – could be pushed further to the right by its emboldened partners, who have at times touted deepening culture war policies during the election campaign.
For example, the right-libertarian ACT party has pledged to end affirmative action programs at the country’s medical schools, while the nationalist New Zealand First party has promised sweeping immigration changes and its populist leader Winston Peters has expressed support for a review of the ban on gay conversion therapy.
“With the 2023 government, a lot of people are saying it was already a huge shift to the right, particularly in terms of Māori (indigenous) rights… So that’s potentially worrying for more moderate voters,” Greaves said.
Conversely, right-wing parties have warned that voters would face a raft of new taxes if a left-wing coalition manages to form a government – with Labor promising a capital gains tax, and the left-wing Greens touting taxes on the “super rich” and big tech companies that export the profits New Zealand earns overseas.
“If the left bloc won, they would really be wondering how to get the money to do what they want,” Greaves said.
In recent decades, New Zealand elections have generally been easy to predict, but even experts struggle to predict what voters will have in store on Saturday.
“What’s going to happen? No idea,” Greaves said.
If the Luxon-led coalition were to lose, it would become New Zealand’s first single-term government in more than half a century.
Gn world
