New Zealand voters face weeks of political limbo after a close election that left the country’s conservative coalition government at risk of losing its majority after just one term.
Preliminary results on Saturday show that the national coalition led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has a very slim majority. But the margin is so narrow that a slight gap in the final tally could give the left-wing opposition bloc a chance to form a government.
Luxon told supporters gathered in Auckland that while it appeared his party had a chance of forming the next government, the race remained “too close to call”.
He said the country would have to wait until the Electoral Commission provides final official results on November 27 to be certain. Coalition negotiations could then drag on for weeks before a government is formed.
The government’s struggle in its first term to achieve an emphatic victory testifies to the level of public opinion dissatisfaction with high gasoline prices and other living costs, unemployment rates, and stubbornly high health care.
In an unusual dynamic, undecided voters abandoned the traditionally dominant players – the center-right National Party and the center-left Labor Party – preferring to support minor parties across the political spectrum.
Preliminary figures show the right-wing coalition has 67 seats in an expanded 131-seat parliament, but almost 400,000 votes cast in special circumstances – including those from New Zealanders living overseas – have yet to be counted.
If the coalition ultimately falls short of a majority, Luxon would likely have to turn to the progressive centrist Opportunity party for support.
The party, which positions itself as both pro-business and pro-climate, made history on Saturday and is set to become the first completely foreign party to enter the country’s parliament in three decades.
Before the election, Luxon had ruled out working with the party led by millennial political newcomer Qiulae Wong. But he kept a more conciliatory tone Sunday morning.
“Actually, I want to build a relationship with her as a leader and also with her party, and try to find common ground,” he said, congratulating the party on its success.
The opposition group of Labor, the left-leaning Greens and the Te Pati Māori Indigenous Party is expected to win 57 seats. But the bloc could have a path to power if it wins a few more seats in the final count and gains support from Opportunity.
Labor leader Chris Hipkins made light of Saturday’s inconclusive results as he addressed supporters in Wellington, saying: “Tonight New Zealand has spoken. We may need a little more time to understand exactly what you said.”
Hipkins, who briefly served as prime minister in 2023, did not back down, telling the crowd that “every vote counts. And every vote must be counted.”
Labor received the highest share of the popular vote under the country’s mixed-member proportional voting system, by a tiny margin, but a better performance from individual electorates allowed National to gain more seats in parliament.
The national coalition – the country’s most right-wing in a generation – took power in 2023, capitalizing on an electorate seeking change in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.
His ability to deliver on his pledge to get the country back on track economically has been crippled by global uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive and soaring fuel prices resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
Luxon urged voters to “stick to the plan.” But his party emerged with diminished strength, collapsing to just 29.2% of the popular vote, down from 38.1% in 2023, according to the preliminary tally.
Its coalition partners, the right-wing libertarian ACT Party and the nationalist New Zealand First Party, increased their vote share to 10.9% and 9.8% respectively, putting them both in a stronger position to dictate the terms of the ongoing coalition negotiations.
The stronger-than-expected result from New Zealand First and ACT, as well as National’s weakened position, raises the prospect of the coalition moving further to the right in a second term and a culture war policy.
During the election campaign, the ACT pledged to end affirmative action programs at the country’s medical schools, while New Zealand First promised sweeping immigration changes and expressed support for a review of the ban on gay conversion therapy.
Luxon would also have a complex task filling key cabinet positions in a second term, with a string of senior lawmakers from his national party, including Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Speaker of Parliament Gerry Brownlee, losing their seats.
The two parties that dominated Wellington politics for almost a century fell out of favor with influential voters, with National and Labor each attracting just 29 per cent of the popular vote. These votes instead went to minor parties entrenched further to the right and left, as well as to Opportunity in the center.
Wong, 38, a former sustainable business consultant who applied for the party leadership through a job advert a year ago, told supporters they had voted “to change New Zealand politics for good”.
The party, which received almost 6% of the vote, becomes the first party without established politicians to gain enough support to enter parliament since the country moved to a mixed-member proportional voting system in the mid-1990s.
Depending on the final outcome of the votes, Opportunity could still find itself in the position of kingmaker – with groups on the right and left vying for its support.
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