New Zealand voters sent a clear message to both major parties last night. They expect more.
In a resounding rejection of the incrementalist political managerialism that has characterized governments led by the major parties in recent decades, seven in ten voters ignored the Labor Party, and the same number ignored the National Party. Between them, the two parties obtained a little more than half of the votes, or 58% on election night. This was the lowest combined vote ever recorded by a major party.
Instead, much of the electorate shifted its vote to the more transformationist minor parties, those with a clearer vision of purpose and country. Both Act and the Greens recorded their best results ever. New Zealand First had its best performance since 2002. Te Pāti Māori took more seats than expected. Opportunity crossed the 5% threshold to win seats in Parliament for the first time and could become kingmaker on November 27, when the count is finalized.
This was never going to be a definitive result or a government decided on election night. For months, polls predicted a razor-thin result that would ultimately depend on the tally of “special votes” cast primarily by people outside their electorate or abroad. This prediction was correct. As was the prediction that the two major parties would be neck and neck. Labor received 29.3% of the party vote and National 29.2%.
The major parties have no one to blame for this stagnation but themselves. Not only have their vision and policy proposals failed, but over the past four years two middle-aged men named Chris (Luxon, leader of National and Hipkins for Labor) have struggled to enthuse the electorate.
The campaign strategies of both parties have been bombed. Luxon and Hipkins spent much of the campaign attacking each other, while the real damage to their parties came from minor parties on their own side of the political spectrum. Like the Tiger family coming to Judith Kerr’s tea party, Luxon and Hipkins held the door open and passively watched their guests raid the pantry.
None of the major parties will be reassured by the result. Labor improved by 2.2 points and two seats from 2023, but this was not enough to govern with the left bloc into the night. National lost 8.3 points and the cost was brutal. Because National gained more voters than its party vote allowed, it won no list seats. High-ranking figures who relied on the list are likely to have disappeared, including deputy leader and finance minister Nicola Willis, justice minister Paul Goldsmith, Speaker of the House Gerry Brownlee and senior MP Chris Bishop.
They may have been let down by the National party vote, but in a quirk of the MMP voting system, National still managed to retain more electorate seats than its share of the party vote, causing a surplus and giving the party more seats overall. Parliament normally has 120 seats and the majority is 61. By election night the size of the House had increased to 131, with six excess seats for National and five for Te Pāti Māori. That puts the bar at 66. On election night, the Coalition cleared it with one seat to spare: 42 for National, plus 25 for ACT and NZ First.
Several hundred thousand special votes remain to be counted. In 2017 and 2023, promotions cost National two seats. This time, with the National overhanging, the specials are unlikely to directly cost seats at the National. But if Act or New Zealand First lose the party’s vote share to the left or if National loses a tight electorate – like Wairarapa where its majority on election night was just 139 – its one-seat margin disappears.
Luxon seemed to know this. When he finally appeared to address the nation at midnight, he gave no victory speech, admitting that although National was still the largest party in Parliament and had a path to forming the next government, the election was too close to call. Serious negotiations and compromises would await the final tally on November 27. In the meantime, the government remains in interim mode.
If the count holds, Luxon’s early decision to rule out any collaboration with Opportunity will have paid off, by just one seat. Whether by design or luck, he avoided eating his words and calling Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong. But if the specials move even one seat, that call is back on the table.
A one-seat majority won’t make governing any easier either. In a tight parliament, each government MP is a kingmaker. A backbencher with a grievance or grudge against the leadership can demand a ransom from the government. The defection of a single member could bring it down. The same goes for a by-election, if an MP dies, resigns or is caught up in a scandal.
Luxon ruled out a kingmaker. Last night’s result may have given him 67.
Gn world
