I continue to flirt with a weekend of sub-.500 game picks. Which reminds us once again that it is impossible to bet and win systematically in football.
I don’t bet. I won’t bet. I appreciate football for what it is. I don’t need the rush of dopamine that comes from the period of hopeful anticipation between locking in the bet and waiting for the final score. This is no different from the fact that the practice of bastardizing games into a “fantasy football” team adds nothing at all, for me, to the enjoyment of staying within the bounds of reality when following the sport.
Of course, I take my shot every week guessing who will win each game. But when the games start, I always look for an entertaining game, whether my choice is good or bad.
And it’s a lot easier to be pragmatic about the experience of watching football when I’m doing a crappy job of picking games. Last week I was 7-7 years old. That puts me at 52-40-1 for the season. In the past, I’ve flirted with a 66.6 percent success rate over the entire season. This year I have a lot of work to do to get there.
Here’s the next chance to get better (or worse), with the latest lineup of games.
Patriots at Bears (Thursday night)
It would be fitting for the first Super Bowl played after Mike Ditka’s passing to feature a rematch of the Super Bowl that capped the Bears’ magical 1985 season. There’s plenty of room for a Super Bowl XX reunion in February. For now, we will have the rematch as the first match of week 7.
The Patriots have turned things around, but they may be a little too banged up to continue against a healthy Caleb Williams and a defense that knows how to get off the field.
Bears 24, Patriots 20.
Steelers vs Saints (Paris)
There’s still no guarantee this one won’t be moved to London, which would introduce a curveball for both teams. The Steelers have been more consistent on both sides of the ball and they need to win the games they should in order to keep pace with the other teams in the NFC North.
Steelers 23, Saints 20.
49ers at the Falcons
The 49ers continue to improve, despite a long list of injuries. The Falcons continue to behave differently in broad daylight.
49ers 27, Falcons 20.
Bengals vs. Ravens
The Ravens need Lamar Jackson back. If he does, it will become much easier for Trey Hendrickson to wreak havoc on his former team.
Ravens 28, Bengals 24.
Buccaneers at Panthers
The Bucs find themselves in another one-score game. And the Panthers hope to run away with the NFC South.
Panthers 20, Buccaneers 17.
Giants among the Texans
Can JJ McCarthy pull it off against a strong Houston defense? Even if he does, it will be difficult for the Giants to defeat a Texas team that has found its feet.
Texans 27, Giants 17.
Colts at Vikings
Four years later, the Vikings shouldn’t have to come back from a 33-0 deficit against the Colts.
Vikings 30, Colts 17.
Dolphins at Jets
The Dolphins have a rare chance to avoid creating the NFL’s ultimate bookends: 17-0 and 0-17. Maybe they’ll win the rematch in Miami.
Jets 16, Dolphins 13.
Browns at Titans
The Browns are finally good enough to have trap games. And periodically enter one of them.
Titans 19, Browns 13.
Broncos at the Cardinals
The Cardinals earned their win of the month.
Broncos 24, Cardinals 13.
Lions Packers
Detroit’s defense has to make a stop, at some point, to win this one.
Lions 28, Packers 27.
Rams at Raiders
If the Rams had five losses with 10 games remaining, it could be done.
Rams 26, Raiders 23.
Seahawks leaders
If the Seahawks can play a little cleaner, they can get back to where they were supposed to be.
Seahawks 27, Chiefs 23.
Cowboys at the Eagles
The Eagles have an excuse or two for being 2-4. The Cowboys don’t. It’s desperation time in Dallas. Absent a turnaround, the changes for 2027 could be dramatic.
Cowboys 21, Eagles 13.
Gn sports
