The Chicago Bears hype is about to get very loud.
This NFL season seems wide open. There is not yet a single great team and few reliable contenders have emerged. The Bears apparently saw things the same way when they traded two first-round picks for defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons.
Advertisement
And through just one play, it feels like a transformative exchange. The Bears had a fantastic performance on the national stage, knocking off the Seahawks in a 34-17 victory. Chicago’s Super Bowl chances have taken a leap, as have Caleb Williams’ MVP chances. In a season that awaits the emergence of a dominant team, perhaps it’s Chicago.
The Bears offense is no question. He scored 30 points in every game Williams started and finished (he only scored three points against the Vikings and Williams played three and a half quarters, but that says something about Minnesota’s defense). If Simmons is as big of an impact on defense as he was Monday night, Chicago will look really good. No one who paid attention to the NFL saw how dominant Simmons was, but it was still impressive to see how quickly he fit in and played.
Chicago makes another prime time big this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night. Surprisingly, the Buccaneers are much better analytically than their 3-5 record suggests. They are fifth in DVOA, eight spots ahead of the Bears and eight in net EPA (expected points added) per game. The Bears are strong in net EPA, coming in third.
The Buccaneers will be completely overshadowed in this game. The Bears will be the center of attention Sunday night as they have become one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL. This is why they are favorites with 6.5 points. That’s a lot of points, and the Buccaneers might secretly be pretty good. This is why Buccaneers +6.5 is the choice. And if the Bears knock off Tampa Bay in a big prime-time window, they’ll become the talk of the NFL, if they haven’t already.
The Bears are 4-0 in games started and finished by Caleb Williams this season.
(AP Photo/Mark J. Terrill)
Here are the rest of the picks against the spread for Week 9 of the NFL season:
Advertisement
Jaguars (-10) against the Ravens
Even at -10, the line seems too low. The Jaguars have three wins by 24 points or more and two against the Browns 5-3 and the Patriots 5-3. They are good. There could be a disappointment with Baltimore’s undrafted rookie quarterback Joe Fagnano, and it’s possible the Ravens rally around Fagnano for a game-saving performance with Jacoby Brissett on the way next week. But that seems like a huge ask for the Ravens, who have scored 13 points or fewer in three straight games.
Bengals (-3) against the Falcons
The Bengals and Falcons travel to Madrid, Spain for this one. The Falcons are almost impossible to understand. They followed a win over the undefeated 49ers by losing to a Buccaneers team that didn’t complete a pass. That sums up Atlanta’s season. We should trust Joe Burrow, who is hot, even if there are more questions about Cincinnati’s defense after it gave up 36 points to the Titans at home last week.
Advertisement
Giants (-3) against the Eagles
Maybe Joe Milton III gives Philadelphia a boost and the Eagles get their first win since Week 2. But since Jalen Hurts went on IR, the Eagles have lost all three games by double digits. This is not a good team by any means, and Milton is far from a safe bet. The Giants are on a bye and should feel good heading into this one.
Panthers (+2.5) vs. Broncos
The Broncos are the better team. Several things work against them in this spot: it’s an early start on the East Coast, and the Panthers have three days of rest advantage. The Broncos are also coming off an emotional win over the Chiefs and there could be some disappointment. Denver has been much better at home this season. Carolina faded after a good start but this is a good opportunity for a victory.
Advertisement
Dolphins (+7) over Lions
Give Miami credit for playing hard. Maybe at some point that effort starts to fade, but the last time they were truly eliminated was in Week 2. They lost by 14 points to the Chiefs, but Kansas City only led by seven points with three minutes remaining. It’s possible the Lions score enough to cover, but remember they’re usually a different team away.
Chiefs (-10) over the Jets
Kansas City will enjoy a break after facing Seattle and Denver defenses on the road the past two weeks. This seems like the type of game in which the Chiefs could vent their frustrations against an opponent who has talent but has only won once since Week 1.
Advertisement
Saints (-3) against the Browns
The Browns are likely going with Shedeur Sanders at quarterback because Deshaun Watson has been in the concussion protocol. It’s not like Watson is playing so well that he’s irreplaceable, but Sanders has only thrown three passes all season. The Saints are well rested after a bye. The Saints aren’t a great team this season, but this could be an opportunity for them to succeed.
Rams (-5.5) on commanders
Is it time to trust the Rams? They covered two games in a row without breaking a sweat. These wins came against mediocre (Raiders) or bad (Chargers) teams, but they managed business. And the commanders are mediocre at best and maybe just plain bad. Let’s see if the Rams are really back.
Advertisement
Cowboys (-5.5) vs. Colts
The Cowboys are incredibly difficult to trust, especially as road favorites. But what we saw from the Colts last week in a 42-7 loss was troubling. There was no fight left on this team, which lost key players to trade and knows its season is over. This could be a big mistake, trusting a defense that can’t stop anyone from nearly covering a touchdown on the road. Taking the Colts at this point is even tougher.
Texans (-4.5) over the Chargers
It’s a lot for Houston to be favored by so many things on the road, however, home field advantage has been largely eliminated this NFL season and the Chargers have no home field advantage – even though it was always a thing. Houston just pulled out and is still hoping to restart its season. The Texans still have a 34.4% chance of making the playoffs according to DVOA. The Chargers are 0.0% on this list. They will cover a gap at some point, but it is difficult to predict when that will happen.
Advertisement
Raiders (+10) over 49ers
The Raiders have four losses and they have faced four of the best teams in the NFL: the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams. The bad news is that this week they get the Super Bowl favorites. The 49ers are expected to get many players back after their leave. But the Raiders can move the ball and they get a lot of points.
Seahawks (-8.5) vs. Cardinals
With all the quarterback chaos this week, we have two teams that had a different quarterback in Week 8. Brissett was benched and traded, and Gardner Minshew II takes over. Sam Darnold has a quad injury and will be out, with Drew Lock taking over. Lock is a reasonable replacement and Minshew won’t face the Cowboys defense this week.
Advertisement
Packers (+3) over the Patriots
The Patriots have a lot of injuries and the Packers have a few extra days off. In a game that seems balanced, the small edges add up. Green Bay started the season very slowly, but looked much better over the last four games, winning three and barely losing to Detroit. New England also emerged from an early season slump to win four of five. It’s a really fun match, and even enough to feel good about taking the points.
Vikings (+3.5) over Bills
It’s an interesting game because the teams have opposing strengths. The Bills have a great offense and a bad defense, and the Vikings have a bad offense and a great defense. Minnesota’s defense ultimately held the Bears to three points; Chicago has scored 30 points in all of Caleb Williams’ other starts. This will be a great test against Josh Allen, who is having another fantastic season. It’s never nice to face Allen, but getting 3.5 points with a defense this good seems fair… as long as the offense does it at least a little bit.
Last week: 7-7
Season to date: 53-65-2
Gn sports
