October 2026: The hottest October ever recorded on Earth » Yale Climate Connections

</p> <h1>October 2026: the hottest October ever recorded on Earth</h1> <p class="byline">by Jeff Masters and Bob Henson, Yale Climate Connections <br />November 12, 2026</p> <p class="has-drop-cap">October 2026 was the warmest October on the planet since modern record keeping began in 1850, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, or NCEI, reported Nov. 12. NASA and Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service also ranked it as the hottest October. The global average temperature from January to October 2026 was the second highest on record, behind only that of 2024.</p> <figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img data-lazyloaded="1" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODdhAQABAPAAAMPDwwAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" decoding="async" data-src="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/11/1126-global-temp-summary-Oct26.jpg" alt="A map showing that most of the planet experienced above-average temperatures in October 2026" class="wp-image-144761" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Figure 1. Temperature departure from average for October 2026, the warmest October in the world since record keeping began in 1850. (Image credit: NOAA/NCEI)</figcaption></figure> <p>Global ocean surface temperatures set their fifth consecutive monthly record in October, and this month produced the largest deviation from the average ocean temperatures for any month in 177 years of analysis. Global land temperatures were the third highest on record in October. This is the third warmest October on record for satellite-estimated global temperatures down to the lowest few kilometers of the atmosphere (the lower troposphere).</p> <p>According to the European Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2026 will most likely be the second hottest year on record (around 80% probability), with around a 20% chance of matching or surpassing 2024 as the hottest year on record. Climatologist Zeke Hausfather and NASA both predict that 2026 will be the first or second warmest year on record, behind 2024, and that 2027 is expected to break that record. (Severe El Niño events normally peak in winter in the north, and global temperature is typically higher in the event’s second calendar year than in the first due to El Niño’s massive release of heat from the ocean to the atmosphere.)</p> <figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-bluesky-social wp-block-embed-bluesky-social"> <div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper"> <blockquote class="bluesky-embed" data-bluesky-uri="at://did:plc:r5ofoghdcbtjqiujqpvja4uh/app.bsky.feed.post/3mze3ytmq342b" data-bluesky-cid="bafyreifnhfxjdb3n7bz5tuaykcrpsmhg3imcfp3s2bhi42fe3d4bqmksce"> <p>With 10 months of the year now in, 2026 as a whole is on track to see the second warmest year on record in ERA5. And with a record-setting El Nino we are very likely to see a record warm 2027: </p> <p>— <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:r5ofoghdcbtjqiujqpvja4uh?ref_src=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Zeke Hausfather (@zekehausfather.com)</a> <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:r5ofoghdcbtjqiujqpvja4uh/post/3mze3ytmq342b?ref_src=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2026-11-02T19:52:49.000Z</a></p></blockquote> <p><script type="litespeed/javascript" data-src="https://embed.bsky.app/static/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </div> </figure> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Fourth warmest October and hottest year in U.S. history</strong></h4> <p>The 48 contiguous United States recorded the fourth warmest average temperature of any October in the United States, based on data dating back to 1895, behind only 1963, 2024 and 1947. The country’s annual average temperature (January-October) was by far the warmest on record (see climate scientist Brian Brettschneider’s Bluesky articles below). Unless Nov.-Dec. period is significantly colder than the average of recent decades, the calendar year 2026 will end up being the warmest in U.S. history (see our November 9 article).</p> <figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-bluesky-social wp-block-embed-bluesky-social"> <div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper"> <blockquote class="bluesky-embed" data-bluesky-uri="at://did:plc:o22eep2qouoaxeoyz2ixglsz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzlylumqps2p" data-bluesky-cid="bafyreibfim7utd3uve7z5n4ihbdj7z6qm7l7fzc53zdewteydaogpmybfu"> <p lang="en">Jan-Oct 2026 temperature classification compared to the 1991-2020 normal for the Contiguous U.S. 0.0% was record cold (since 1940). 0.0% was much below normal. 0.00% was below normal. 4.75% was near normal. 95.25% was above normal. 78.4% was much above normal. 41.9% was record warm (since 1940).</p> <p>— <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:o22eep2qouoaxeoyz2ixglsz?ref_src=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climatologist49 (@climatologist49.bsky.social)</a> <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:o22eep2qouoaxeoyz2ixglsz/post/3mzlylumqps2p?ref_src=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2026-11-05T23:13:11.009Z</a></p></blockquote> <p><script type="litespeed/javascript" data-src="https://embed.bsky.app/static/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </div> </figure> <figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-bluesky-social wp-block-embed-bluesky-social"> <div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper"> <blockquote class="bluesky-embed" data-bluesky-uri="at://did:plc:o22eep2qouoaxeoyz2ixglsz/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzb5bishik2w" data-bluesky-cid="bafyreig35nlb5v4rvmay3uh72m2xnkc3kdioj2q27nxzpmcqls65wf36um"> <p lang="en">Here is the January-October 2026 temperature ranking compared to all January-October periods since 1895 using PRISM data. Nationwide, it is easily the warmest January-October on record. 🔥🔥🔥</p> <p>— <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:o22eep2qouoaxeoyz2ixglsz?ref_src=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Climatologist49 (@climatologist49.bsky.social)</a> <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:o22eep2qouoaxeoyz2ixglsz/post/3mzb5bishik2w?ref_src=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2026-11-01T15:37:34.655Z</a></p></blockquote> <p><script type="litespeed/javascript" data-src="https://embed.bsky.app/static/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </div> </figure> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>The current very strong El Niño is expected to peak in December and break all-time records.</strong></h4> <p>An El Niño advisory continues in the Eastern Pacific, NOAA reported in its Nov. 12 monthly discussion on the status of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 reference region for the August-September-October period (the Niño Ocean Index, or ONI) were 2.5°C above average, the first time the August-October temperature has increased. the value was greater than 2°C. The monthly anomaly for October exceeded 3°C, as shown in the Bluesky chart embedded below.</p> <p>NOAA’s new Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), which adjusts the three-month value based on warmth across the global tropics, was +2.0°C for the August-October period. 2026, slightly below the record of +2.1°C from August to October. 1997. Whether using ONI or RONI, we have already reached the threshold of 2.0°C above average that is used to define “super” (i.e. very strong) El Niño conditions. Check out our November 11 article to learn more about these clues and how this El Niño event could shape the upcoming winter in the U.S. Gulf Coast and East Coast states.</p> <figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-bluesky wp-block-embed-bluesky"> <div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper"> <blockquote class="bluesky-embed" data-bluesky-uri="at://did:plc:2d6kuvaoa7qi6bq5cwq4isee/app.bsky.feed.post/3mzn3pyl3d22x" data-bluesky-cid="bafyreibtnjsbl5oxuevklnnxdr4hkbvlofxxlavyjqj2cdtagrgyiolhoi"> <p>NEW – ‘Simply staggering’: Rapidly developing ‘super El Niño’ on track to peak in December ✍️ Written by @ceciliakeating.carbonbrief.org💬 With comments from @zekehausfather.com Read here ➡️ buff.ly/Iw1PU6H</p> <p>— <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:2d6kuvaoa7qi6bq5cwq4isee?ref_src=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Carbon Brief (@carbonbrief.org)</a> <a href="https://bsky.app/profile/did:plc:2d6kuvaoa7qi6bq5cwq4isee/post/3mzn3pyl3d22x?ref_src=embed" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2026-11-06T09:41:50.327Z</a></p></blockquote> <p><script type="litespeed/javascript" data-src="https://embed.bsky.app/static/embed.js" charset="utf-8"></script> </div> </figure> <p>According to official probabilities from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released October 19 using the RONI index, it is essentially certain (100% chance) that El Niño conditions will continue through January-February-March 2027. By April-May-June, neutral conditions become the most likely outcome (61% chance, with a 38% chance of El Niño and 1% chance of lucky to have La Niña). The odds of neutral conditions are also 61% for June-July-August, but with only a 6% chance of El Niño and a 33% chance of La Niña. It should be noted that a strong El Niño event is often (but not always!) followed by a La Niña event in the following fall and winter, which in this case would be 2027-2028. </p> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Arctic sea ice: 12th lowest October extent on record</strong></h4> <p>According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Arctic sea ice extent in October 2026 was the 12th lowest in 48 years of satellite records. The Arctic experienced its fifth warmest October on record.</p> <p>Antarctic sea ice extent in October 2026 was the second lowest on record, almost tied with 2023 for the lowest amount. The Antarctic region experienced its second warmest October on record.</p> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Notable global heat and cold marks for October 2026</strong></h4> <p>Weather records expert Maximiliano Herrera documented the records listed below in October. Follow him on Bluesky: @extremetemps.bsky.social or X: <a href="https://twitter.com/extremetemps" target="_blank" rel="noopener">@extremetemps</a>. (November’s record is perhaps even more impressive: According to Herrera, in the first six days of November alone, stations in 152 countries reported the warmest daily minimum ever measured in any location in that country.) </p> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 47.2°C (°F) in Swiehan (United Arab Emirates), on October 7;</li> <li>Coldest temperature in the northern hemisphere: -49.3°C (-°F) at summit, Greenland, October 22;</li> <li>Hottest temperature in the southern hemisphere: 45.6°C (°F) in Tete, Mozambique, on October 24; And</li> <li>Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -76.3°C (-°F) in Concordia, Antarctica, on October 4.</li> </ul> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Twenty-two all-time national/territorial heat records broken or tied as of end of October</strong></h4> <p><strong>Chad:</strong> 48.0°C (118.4°F) in Faya, May 19 (tie)<br /><strong>Bahrain:</strong> 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Bahrain airport on May 29<br /><strong>Jersey (British territory)</strong>: 39.3°C (102.6°F) at Maison St. Louis, June 25<br /><strong>Guernsey (British territory)</strong>: 36.4°C (97.5°F) at Guernsey Airport, June 25<br /><strong>Luxembourg</strong>: 40.9°C (105.6°F) in Reckange, June 26<br /><strong>Denmark</strong>: 37.0°C (98.6°F) in Odum and Odense, June 27<br /><strong>Germany</strong>: 41.7°C (107.1°F) in Neissemunde-Coschen, June 28<br /><strong>Czech Republic</strong>: 41.9°C (107.4°F) in Doksany, June 28<br /><strong>Poland</strong>: 40.5°C (104.9°F) in Slubice, June 28<br /><strong>Belarus</strong>: 40.4°C in Brest, June 29<br /><strong>Slovakia</strong>: 41.3°C (106.3°F) in Kamenice nad Hronom, June 30; broken again with 41.4°C (106.5) in Kamenica nad Hronom, August 5; broke again with 42.2°C (108.0°F) at Dolné Plachtincy, August 6<br /><strong>Hungary</strong>: 42.0°C (107.6°F) in Szecseny, June 30<br /><strong>Uzbekistan:</strong> 49.7°C (121.5°F) in Achkuduk, July 18 (tie)<br /><strong>Kyrgyzstan:</strong> 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Jangy Jer, July 19<br /><strong>Swiss:</strong> 39.7°C (103.5°F) in Basel, July 30 (tie)<br /><strong>Liechtenstein: </strong>38.2°C (100.8°F) in Balzers, July 30; broke again with 38.5°C (101.3°F) in Balzers, August 3<br /><strong>South Korea:</strong> 41.4°C (106.5°F) in Yangsan, July 31; broke again with 42.5°C (108.5°F) in Yangsan, August 2<br /><strong>Austria:</strong> 41.0°C (105.8°F) in Vienna Stammersdorf, August 4; broke again with 41.2°C (106.2°F) in Bad Deutsch-Alternburg, August 5<br /><strong>Bahamas:</strong> 36.7°C (98.0°F) in Freeport, August 14<br /><strong>Ecuador:</strong> 39.3°C (102.7°F) at El Coca, September 30<br /><strong>Peru</strong>: 41.8°C (107.2°F) at Tingo de Ponaza, October 7 (tie)<br /><strong>Zambia</strong>: 45.0°C (113°F) in Chirundu, October 22</p> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>An all-time national/territorial cold record broken or equaled at the end of October</strong></h4> <p><strong>Cuba:</strong> 0°C (32.0°F) at Indio Hatuey, February 3</p> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>110 additional national or territorial monthly heat records set in 2026</strong></h4> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>(January 6): US Virgin Islands, Saba, Sao Tome and Principe, Congo Brazzaville, Aruba, Guadeloupe</li> <li>(February 7): French Southern Territories, Armenia, Iran, Turkmenistan, US Virgin Islands, United States, Honduras</li> <li>Mar. (6): US Virgin Islands, Sao Tome and Principe, United States, Guyana, Somalia, French Southern Territories</li> <li>April (1): French Southern Territories</li> <li>May (12): Togo, Sao Tome and Principe, Honduras, Jersey, Guernsey, United Kingdom, Ireland, Luxembourg, Portugal, France, Andorra, Turkmenistan</li> <li>June (17): Costa Rica, Antarctica, Kenya, Sao Tome and Principe, US Virgin Islands, New Zealand, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Isle of Man, Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, Lithuania, Montenegro, Slovenia, Croatia, Slovakia</li> <li>Jul (15): Honduras, US Virgin Islands, Argentina, Uruguay, Malta, Tanzania, Costa Rica, Austria, Cuba, Paraguay, South Korea, Liechtenstein, Italy, Nicaragua, Chad</li> <li>(August 13): Czech Republic, Hungary, Belarus, Qatar, Honduras, Colombia, US Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands, Nicaragua, Chad, Namibia, Cocos Islands, Guadeloupe</li> <li>September (19): Mongolia, Honduras, Djibouti, Andorra, France, Central African Republic, Liechtenstein, Bahrain, Costa Rica, Niger, El Salvador, Egypt, Cocos Islands, Cameroon, Tanzania, Sao Tome and Principe, Angola, Maldives, French Guiana</li> <li>Oct (14): Laos, United Arab Emirates, Ecuador, Congo, Cocos Islands, Maldives, Tanzania, Antigua and Barbuda, Seychelles, Sao Tome and Principe, Taiwan, Ivory Coast, Antarctica, Ghana</li> </ul> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Six countries or territories set unprecedented monthly cold records in 2026</strong></h4> <ul class="wp-block-list"> <li>January (1): Cocos Islands</li> <li>February (2): Bahamas, Belize</li> <li>March (2): Saba, Antarctica</li> <li>April (1): Algeria</li> </ul> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Main weather stations in October: 13 absolute heat records, 0 absolute cold records</strong></h4> <p>Among global stations with records dating back to at least 1980, at least 13 have set, and not just tied, an all-time October heat record. No station has set all-time cold records.</p> <p>Correntina (Brazil) max. 41.6°C, October 1<br />Jaen (Peru) max. 40.0°C, October 7 <br />Banjarmasin (Indonesia) max. 38.3°C, October 20<br />Tanjungpandan (Indonesia) max. 37.3°C, October 22<br />Chirundu (Zambia) max 45.0°C, October 22: <strong>new national record for highest temperature</strong><br />Tete (Mozambique) max. 45.6°C, October 23<br />Iringa (Tanzania) max. 34.1°C, October 23<br />Kasane (Botswana) max. 42.0°C, October 23<br />Mfuwe (Zambia) max. 44.0°C, October 23<br />Livingstone (Zambia) max. 42.0°C, October 23<br />Isoka (Zambia) max. 40.0°C, October 23<br />Mpika (Zambia) max. 40.0°C, October 23<br />Pao de Acucar (Brazil) max. 43.0°C, October 26</p> <h4 class="wp-block-heading"><strong>Hemispheric and continental temperature records for 2026</strong></h4> <p>Lowest March temperature in world history: -76.4°C (-105.5°F) in Vostok, Antarctica, on March 25.<br />Highest June temperature and highest June minimum temperature in Antarctic history: +15.4°C (59.7°F) and +6°C (42.8°F) in Esperanza, June 5.<br />Highest July temperature in European history: 48.4°C (119.1°F) in Orani, Italy on July 19.<br />Highest October temperature in Antarctic history (tie): 17.0°C (62.6°F) in Esperanza, Argentina, on October 25.</p> <p>This article was first published on Yale Climate Connections and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. <img data-lazyloaded="1" src="data:image/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciIHdpZHRoPSIxNiIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxNiIgdmlld0JveD0iMCAwIDE2IDE2Ij48cmVjdCB3aWR0aD0iMTAwJSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxMDAlIiBzdHlsZT0iZmlsbDojY2ZkNGRiO2ZpbGwtb3BhY2l0eTogMC4xOyIvPjwvc3ZnPg==" decoding="async" data-src="https://i0.wp.com/yaleclimateconnections.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/ycc-favicon.png?resize=100%2C100&ssl=1" alt="" width="16" height="16" style="width:1em;height:1em;"></p> <p><img data-lazyloaded="1" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODdhAQABAPAAAMPDwwAAACwAAAAAAQABAAACAkQBADs=" decoding="async" id="republication-tracker-tool-source" data-src="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/?republication-pixel=true&post=144402&ga4=1401ERFF5Q" style="width:1px;height:1px;">