Punters bet millions midway through, including some unexpected bets.
Bettors have millions of dollars on next week’s midterm elections – and most are optimistic about a Democratic victory.
Bettors on Kalshi give Democrats a 68 percent chance of winning both chambers on Election Day, up sharply from just 30 percent earlier this year. Punters have invested a whopping $73.3 million in the Kalshi market to determine which party will hold the reins of the Congress.
Democrats’ fortunes in prediction markets have risen sharply since early September, when President Donald Trump kicked off his midterm panic tour with rallies across the country and polls began showing Democrats leading in key Senate races.
Polymarket traders are even more optimistic, estimating the chances of a Democratic victory at 70 percent. The House, meanwhile, appears all but settled in the eyes of oddsmakers, with Democrats having a 94 percent chance of reclaiming it from Polymarket.
Just 6 percent of Kalshi bettors expect Republicans to maintain control of both chambers, while 27 percent are betting the party will hold the Senate but give up the House.
No Democrat has been elected to the U.S. Senate in Kansas since 1932.
Democrats’ fortunes in prediction markets have risen sharply since early September, when President Donald Trump kicked off his midterm panic tour with rallies across the country and polls began showing Democrats leading in key Senate races.
While Democrats’ leads in those races have remained well under 10 percent — and within the margin of error in many polls — bettors are showing considerable confidence in a string of victories, including in red states.
Oddsmakers at Polymarket give Democratic candidate James Talarico a 70% chance of defeating Republican Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race, even though no Democrat has won a statewide election since 1994.
In Kansas, where no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race since 1932, Democratic candidate Adam Hamilton this week edged out Sen. Roger Marshall on Kalshi, with oddsmakers now giving him a 53 percent chance of victory to Marshall’s 49 percent. CNN released a poll Thursday showing Hamilton up four points among voters.
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However, bettors are not betting on the Democrats.
In the Iowa Senate race, where polls have pointed to a possible Democratic upset, Kalshi’s oddsmakers still favor Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson over Democratic candidate Josh Turek.
In South Carolina, Republican Senator Darline Graham remains heavily favored, with oddsmakers giving her a 78% chance of defeating Democratic candidate Annie Andrews.
To regain control of the Senate, Democrats must win four seats. Kalshi’s oddsmakers currently have them ahead in six races that could produce those winnings: North Carolina, Ohio, Maine and Alaska, as well as Texas and Kansas.
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