The Pentagon has told US lawmakers that the war against Iran has cost US taxpayers at least $47.1 billion so far.
The estimate, disclosed last week, comes days before Tuesday’s midterm elections, which will determine whether President Donald Trump’s Republican Party retains control of Congress for the next two years.
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In a statement released Wednesday, the Pentagon said it had “successfully committed 97.5 percent” of the funds provided by Trump to the department. In July of last year, Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBA), which sets out tax and spending plans that took effect this year.
We take a close look at the Pentagon’s estimate and what it means for the U.S. economy and the midterm elections.
What did the Pentagon spending report reveal?
The Pentagon told Congress that the cost of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran as of October 16 was at least $47.1 billion.
Congressional officials shared the Pentagon’s cost estimate with The New York Times.
According to the Times and other US media, the Pentagon estimate covers the operational costs of the war and includes a projected cost of $29 billion needed to replace spent munitions such as bombs, bullets and other military equipment deployed so far in the war.
It also reveals that since the war began on February 28, the US Air Force has spent $7.6 billion on fighters and bombers, the US Navy has spent $1.5 billion on two dozen warships and aircraft carriers and the US Army has spent $2.1 billion supporting its troops in the Middle East.
According to U.S. Army Central Command, more than 50,000 U.S. troops are stationed in the Middle East, including personnel deployed to large permanent bases and smaller forward sites across the region.
Officials told the Times that the Pentagon spent $6.1 billion to replace damaged planes and munitions, $645 million for transportation and support of commandos in the region and $24.5 million for “internal medical support” to the U.S. military.
A congressional official added that US Transportation Command also spent $92.2 million moving equipment and US Cyber Command spent $14 million on “cyber support operations.”
The Pentagon’s estimate, however, does not include the amount Washington will have to spend to repair its military bases in the Middle East that were damaged in Iranian attacks, nor does it take into account the cost of fuel to power ships and planes used in the war.
While the Pentagon has publicly acknowledged 18 U.S. service members died in the war, the Washington Post cited six unnamed U.S. officials saying the true toll is at least 22 dead. According to the official Pentagon Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) database, 865 service members were injured in the war with Iran.
Is this the final cost?
It’s not likely.
John Phillips, a British safety, security and risk adviser and former chief military instructor, told Al Jazeera that the Pentagon’s $47.1 billion estimate should be treated as a running total and not the full cost of the war.
“If the war continues without lasting results, the United States risks paying repeatedly to maintain military pressure while simultaneously trying to rebuild the capabilities it has consumed,” he said.
He said replacing advanced weapons also requires industrial capacity and time and that financial and production resources devoted to this conflict could also compete with other defense priorities.
“What concerns me most is the possibility of an open-ended commitment: continuing to spend massively without a clear political end state or a settlement guaranteeing lasting security,” he said.
Currently, the United States must weigh three costs, Phillips said: money spent, military capacity consumed and economic disruption generated.
“A tactical victory is not necessarily a strategic victory. If the conflict leaves U.S. stockpiles depleted, energy markets unstable and regional security unresolved, the question is not simply how much the war will cost, but whether its lasting benefits justify the price,” he said.
What was the response to the Pentagon’s estimate?
According to an October 19 USA Today article, five Democratic Party senators wrote to Admiral Brad Cooper, head of Central Command, demanding that the Pentagon reveal the true cost of the war. Their letter said the Trump administration’s “continued efforts to hide the true cost of this war are outrageous and unacceptable.”
Trump did not comment on the Pentagon’s latest estimate. But the Trump administration’s war against Iran has become increasingly unpopular with U.S. citizens because of its impact on U.S. and global energy costs.
Since early March, shortly after the start of the war, Iran has closed the critical Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf, through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supplies previously passed. This caused the price of oil to skyrocket and caused shortages worldwide. In the United States, the price of diesel, on which farmers and small businesses rely heavily, has almost doubled.
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“Trump and his ego have led us into this war without a plan, without authority and without an exit strategy,” he added.
How does the Pentagon’s estimate compare to previous calculations?
Estimates of the cost of the war in Iran to the United States rose steadily as the war continued.
The Pentagon’s latest estimate is higher than the $38 billion forecast by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in September.
It’s also higher than the $37.5 billion price tag announced by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in July this year. Hegseth confirmed that amount during a hearing before the Senate Appropriations Committee and added that the cost covers some operations and maintenance through the end of September.
Hegseth’s estimate in July was already about $8 billion higher than the previous figure released by the Trump administration in May — $29 billion.
Before the May estimate, Pentagon comptroller Jules Hurst announced in late April that the war would cost $25 billion.
Meanwhile, as the war enters its ninth month and no peace deal is in sight, the CBO said last month that the war with Iran could cost an estimated $2 billion to $3 billion a month as long as it continues.
The Pentagon’s inspector general also said last month that U.S. troops were facing “strategic stockpile shortages” as the war continued.
But the Trump administration has denied that its weapons stocks are running low.
“Cowards and traitors would like to say that the United States is running out of munitions, but that’s not true. We have more munitions than we could ever imagine using. And we’re producing it at levels we’ve never been before,” Trump told the United Nations General Assembly in New York in September.
Trump has also repeatedly stated that the war in Iran will end whenever he wants.
Last week, at a campaign rally in Texas, according to a CNBC report, Trump said, “Someone once asked me, ‘When will the war in Iran end?’ I said, “Every time I want it to end.” »
What does the rising cost of war mean for the midterm elections?
The US-Israeli war against Iran has affected the US economy through direct government spending as well as rising energy and fuel costs.
The average price of a gallon of diesel in the United States reached $6.35 on Wednesday, up from $3.75 last year, according to the American Automobile Association.
Rising fuel costs are also driving up the price of food – with oil and gas shortages affecting almost every step of the food supply chain.
Meanwhile, the country’s national debt surpassed a record $40 trillion, two years ahead of schedule.
As a result, the war became deeply unpopular in the United States, and Trump’s approval ratings fell to just 33 percent – the lowest they had ever been during his two terms as president.
With the midterm elections five days away, analysts say the Pentagon’s confirmation of the high cost of war will likely affect how Americans vote.
Currently, Democrats lead Republicans 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, a gap of 8.2 percentage points, according to the national average of RealClearPolling polls.
Chris Featherstone, a political scientist at the University of York in the United Kingdom, said it’s an issue that touches on two key pillars of Trump’s political rhetoric: his promise to start “no new wars” during his campaign for the presidency in 2024, and his focus on repairing the U.S. economy.
“The growing cost of the conflict to the taxpayer and the lack of a clear objective resemble the criticisms that Trump leveled at the war in Afghanistan during his first presidential election campaign,” he told Al Jazeera.
According to Brown University’s Costs of War Project, the war in Afghanistan, which began in 2001, has cost the United States between $2.26 trillion and $2.3 trillion in total under several presidential administrations, including George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump.
“While many of Trump’s most loyal MAGA voters will likely remain loyal to Trump in the midterms despite the cost of the Iran conflict, the more peripheral supporters appear to be moving away from the president before the midterms, and the significant impact of that conflict on the cost of living appears to be a major factor,” Featherstone said.
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