Emmanuel Macron will engage in a difficult exercise this Thursday during his interview on TF1 and France 2 by “zooming out” from the gas pump to broaden the focus to global crises. The president will address the French, seeking to explain to them why the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have direct consequences on their daily lives with fuel prices breaking records at gas stations. Aid for heavy commuters has been extended to more than five million French people but some consider this measure insufficient while the government refuses a reduction in taxes which would worsen the already abysmal deficit of the State. In the entourage of the Head of State, we recognize that the check for 100 euros is not enough for motorists who fill up two tanks per week to go to work.
Emmanuel Macron should remind us that he did not sit idly by. The French president has stepped up diplomatic initiatives to ease pressure on oil prices and to secure supplies next winter. In August he received Mohamed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince. The two leaders not only talked about the Saudi investment of six billion euros for three theme park projects in Île-de-France, including one dedicated to Dragon Ball. They mainly addressed the question of securing oil pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, which provides access to the Suez Canal and allows bypassing the Strait of Hormuz controlled by Iran.
A situation frozen until the presidential election?
At the UN, Emmanuel Macron called for a “double moratorium” on strikes against energy sites and civilian infrastructure in Russia and Ukraine. This call echoes that of Donald Trump, who called on kyiv to stop its attacks against Russian refineries and oil installations, accused of being responsible for a shortage of diesel at the global level, but that of France is also addressed to Vladimir Putin. Concerns also relate to gas supplies this winter.
The president’s message to the French will echo the one he addressed last Friday to party leaders and presidential candidates gathered in the situation room of the Élysée. Emmanuel Macron warned them that they risk being faced with the same international crises in Ukraine and the Middle East in seven months at the time of the presidential election. Fuel prices are unlikely to return to their level before the outbreak of war in the Persian Gulf, even if diplomatic action could help bring them back below two euros per liter.
The risk of Russian hybrid attacks
At the same time, France is preparing for a risk of an increase in hybrid attacks from Russia against France. Emmanuel Macron informed political leaders last Friday. Initially, Marine Le Pen, who was represented by the president of the RN Jordan Bardella, had minimized the Russian threats. The candidate did an about-face, criticizing Russia like never before.
Vladimir Putin emerged strengthened from the legislative elections tailor-made to give him a large victory and carte blanche to continue the war of invasion in Ukraine. The Russian president risks continuing to test European countries to see how far he can go in his shadow war. The explosive drone attack on August 4 on Leipzig airport in Germany gave security services in Europe a cold sweat. The device which did not work could have caused deaths on European soil. The Baltic countries are on maximum vigilance and France recently adopted a new alert and national security regime, one step below the state of emergency.
By speaking out on the fuel crisis, Emmanuel Macron exposes himself to the risk of finding himself on the front line facing the anger of the French. The Élysée is, however, betting that the call to relaunch the yellow vest movement in October will not be followed up because the context is different. Pump prices are the consequence of external shocks unlike in 2018 and the French will have the opportunity to express themselves next year by voting in the presidential election.
