For several months, not a single poll had given the candidate of the ultraconservative right at the top of the ballot, in the first round of the presidential election in Brazil. Flavio Bolsonaro took the lead this Sunday, October 5 with a score of just over 47% while the latest polls put him behind the outgoing president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, by at least four points.
For the veteran of the Brazilian left, the landing was brutal. While he was up to 15 points ahead of Jair Bolsonaro’s eldest son, he finds himself in the position of challenger, two points behind his rival, for the second round which will be held on Sunday October 25.
With just over 45% of the vote, he nevertheless achieved the score that the polls predicted. But the undecided and a weak mobilization of the electorate ultimately benefited the senator from Rio de Janeiro who took the advantage in this duel which turned out to be even closer than expected.
If Bolsonaro’s son wins in the second round, Brazil will join the conservative wave which, encouraged by American President Donald Trump, has reaped victories in the region, in Argentina, Colombia and Peru.
Flavio Bolsonaro welcomes “a vote of confidence for change”
For a first attempt, Flavio Bolsonaro did not go very far from the masterstroke. He said on Sunday evening that he was “very satisfied” with the result and confident of a victory. He thanked his voters for giving him “a vote of confidence for change”, judging that “Brazil can’t take it anymore”. He presents himself as a “more moderate” version of his father, who nominated him as a candidate after being sentenced to 27 years in prison for an attempted coup against Lula in 2022.
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At almost 81 years old, the historic champion of the left is seeking a fourth and final non-consecutive term. He raised the banner of sovereignty during the campaign, and called on his American counterpart not to “meddle” in the Brazilian elections. Sunday evening, he recognized an “unexpected” result. “The match is about to begin. We are in overtime, and that is where we are going to convince the Brazilian people,” he nevertheless assured.
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Cover image: © France 24
Bolsonaro’s son has not lost his footing, after the revelation that he was the target of an investigation for corruption and money laundering over the financing of a film to the glory of his father.
Flavio Bolsonaro leaves with an advantage for the second round
For the second round, Senator Bolsonaro a priori leaves with an advantage: he could benefit from the votes of the handful of small candidates who participated in the first round, most of them from the right.
Brazil also witnessed a veritable conservative tidal wave in the legislative elections, particularly in the Senate, where the former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro was elected handily, as was Carlos Bolsonaro, brother of Flavio.
Some 160 million voters were called to the polls. Abstention, in a country where voting is compulsory, rose to 21%, practically the same figure as in 2022.
Donald Trump did not support Flavio Bolsonaro, but his influence weighed on the campaign. He has drawn customs duties and sanctions against Brazil since the 2025 trial against his ally Jair Bolsonaro.
Returning to power in 2023, Lula is recognized for his social programs, which lifted millions of people out of poverty in the 2000s. But voters complain about the cost of living and rampant crime. His opponent promised tough action against crime and budgetary austerity.
With AFP
