Here’s to starting the month of October off on the right foot.
My choices were bad last week. I was fine, going 9-7, but the late game shenanigans cost me a chance at a decent week against the spread. I went 4-11-1 ATS last week as a lot of backdoor coverage got me.
My straight record for the season is 38-26-0 and my ATS record is a dismal 25-37-2. How can I be so bad?
No time to sulk. It’s time to turn things around and this week I think I have a chance to get closer to .500 for the season. Then we can build on things from there.
Let’s go.
All lines via DraftKings; All times ET
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime
The Bucs are 0-4 and playing a rookie at quarterback in Jalon Daniels. He will make his first road start. A Thursday evening? It’s hard. The Cowboys are coming off a big win in Houston and the offense was dynamic. Dak Prescott continues the momentum in this one.
Take: Cowboys 34, Bucs 14
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
- London Sunday, 9:30 a.m. on NFL Network (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The Eagles are so banged up and are coming off a tough loss to the Rams. Then, right tackle Lane Johnson retired Tuesday. They have so many key players out, which must help the Jaguars. The Jaguars are second in defense and have stopped the run all year. They will limit the Eagles offense in this one. The Jaguars improve to 4-1.
Take: Jaguars 28, Eagles 16
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (+3)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
These two don’t like each other. The Bears have been excellent with the ball, but this could be the game where playing without Caleb Williams presents itself. Look for Jordan Love to have a big day throwing it to the other side – finally. The Packers win it by surprise.
Take: Packers 27, Bears 24
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans (+7)
Both of these teams are 0-4, which is surprising when it comes to the Texans. The Titans have played a lot of close games, and they will do so again here. But CJ Stroud will play late to win this one.
Take: Texans 23, Titans 17
Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The Bengals are struggling at receiver, with Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase being injured last week against the Jaguars. But there’s a chance they could play. Even if they don’t, the Bengals will move the football. Miami plays hard, but they are undermanned.
Take: Bengals 23, Dolphins 13
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots (-3.5)
It’s a long journey for the Raiders after a tough divisional loss. The Patriots seemed to turn things around against the Bills, which allowed Drake Maye to come back to life. Expect that to continue here as the Patriots reach 3-2.
Take: Patriots 28, Raiders 24
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The Saints looked awful in their loss to the Falcons on Monday night and now face an undefeated Vikings team. This Minnesota defense is special. The Saints are really struggling on defense. Maybe Kyler Murray can get going against them. I think so.
Take: Vikings 24, Saints 17
Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets (-2.5)
The Browns are 3-1 and have won three straight, while the Jets have lost three straight. But they are back home after a two-hour drive. It matters. Look for a better performance here from their offense as they upset the Browns.
Take: Jets 20, Browns 16
Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)
The Colts have won two in a row as they face the Steelers on the road after beating the Commanders in London last week. It’s a tough turnaround, with the Steelers having extra days off. It matters. The Steelers will get back on track with a victory led by Aaron Rodgers.
Take: Steelers 33, Colts 23
New York Giants (+3) at Washington Commanders
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
There is a chance Jayden Daniels plays for the Commanders. That’s the good news. But he will wear an elbow brace. How much will this restrict him? The Giants are 3-1, but this is a big road test. I think they will be up to the task. Give me Jameis Winston playing well as the Giants get to 4-1.
Take: Giants 26, Commanders 24
Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5)
The Broncos are playing back-to-back road games after losing at San Francisco last week. The Chargers didn’t win. They will do it here. Desperation will be in order for the Chargers. The Broncos currently have some offensive issues that will emerge. Look for Los Angeles to silence the critics for a week.
Take: Chargers 23, Broncos 17
Detroit Lions (-4.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The Lions are playing on the road after a loss Sunday night. They can’t stop anyone on defense. But the Cardinals also have defensive problems. Expect the Lions to outplay Arizona in a shootout as Jared Goff puts up big numbers.
Take: Lions 40, Cardinals 31
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
This is a huge divisive game that will be a physical war, as it always is between these two. The 49ers are undefeated, but this is a tough road test. The Seahawks are the healthier team, but the 49ers have played better. The 49ers played well in Seattle, but I think Seattle’s defense will come in very late to win.
Take: Seahawks 28, 49ers 21
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
This could be a Ravens team without Lamar Jackson after he injured his ankle last week. If he can’t go, Tyler Huntley will start. That means it will be a Derrick Henry match. The Falcons impressed Monday night by beating the Saints, but it’s a short week and a better opponent. The Ravens will rally if Jackson doesn’t play and will be thrilled if he does.
Take: Ravens 24, Hawks 17
Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams (-2.5)
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
This is one of the best games of the week. The Bills are coming off a tough loss to the Patriots, while the Rams rallied to beat the Eagles. Look for a lot of points in this one as Josh Allen and Matt Stafford have big games. Ultimately, the Rams will play late to win.
Take: Rams 34, bills 33
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