Going to the dogs last week turned out to be dog doodoo. I picked All Dogs against the spread last week and it looked good early on, but then it fell apart late with five straight losses, including both primetime games Sunday and Monday night.
Nice try.
I was 8-6 in a row last week and 6-7-1 against the spread. Hey, the spread record has improved, which shows you how bad I’ve been this season. My ATS record this year is 43-61-3, which is nowhere near .500. My direct record is 62-44-1.
So this week we return to the game selection. Forget all the dogs. Trying to get to .500 makes me borrow a coaching cliché they all use.
One game at a time. One week at a time.
Turnaround time.
All lines via DraftKings; All times ET
Carolina Panthers vs. Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime
These two both just lost. Carolina’s loss saw the Bucs crush them for 258 yards rushing. This has been a problem all year. But the Packers aren’t handling it very well, so something has to give. Carolina gave Jordan Love fits last year, but that will change here. Carolina gives up 27.7 points per game. Love lights them up and Josh Jacobs starts the running game.
Take: Packers 31, Panthers 24
Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills (-3.5)
Lamar Jackson could be back for the Ravens, but how much will his injured ankle impact his ability to move? The Bills just came out, so they will be rested. Baltimore’s defense was bad in last week’s loss to the Bengals, but Buffalo’s was terrible. Look for a shootout here with Josh Allen making the most of it.
Take: Bills 35, Crows 30
Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-10.5)
The Titans are having big problems on offense, while the Bengals lit up the Ravens last week. Joe Burrow was special in the second half of this game and I think that will continue here. Look for an offensive explosion from the Bengals as Burrow begins to get into the MVP talk.
Take: Bengals 36, Titans 10
Arizona Cardinals vs. Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The Cowboys’ offense came alive against the Eagles on Monday night, especially on the ground, which is not a good thing for an Arizona defense that is last in the league in scoring. Dallas’ offense should roll and Arizona’s offense won’t be able to keep up. Dallas is big, even on a short week.
Take: Cowboys 37, Cardinals 21
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions (-3)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The undefeated Vikings face a tough road game against Detroit. The Lions offense against the Minnesota defense will be a treat to watch. Jared Goff is currently playing at a high level, but Minnesota’s defense is the best in the league in scoring. The Vikings’ offense is limited, but Detroit’s defense has had major issues. But they were better last week, and I think that continues. The Lions take it.
Take: Lions 23, Vikings 13
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New York Jets (-1.5)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
Kirk Cousins remains a starter for the Raiders, but teams have bombarded him over the past two weeks. This could be a problem here since the Jets are in the top 10 in blitz percentage. The Raiders have struggled to stop opposing offenses, allowing 28.1 points per game, so expect Geno Smith to succeed. The Jets win.
Take: Jets 27, Raiders 16
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
This is a big game for the AFC North division leader. The Browns beat the Steelers earlier this year, but this will be a bigger challenge down the road. They also play back-to-back games on the road, which will be a challenge. Look for Aaron Rodgers to play well like the Steelers think he will.
Take: Steelers 24, Browns 20
Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
It’s suddenly a big game in the NFC South with the Bucs upsetting Carolina last week and the Falcons upsetting the 49ers. Tampa Bay’s running game has come back to life, but Atlanta is stingy on the ground, giving up 3.8 per carry. This will mean it’s a Baker Mayfield play. Tampa Bay gives up 3.5 per carry, which could make things difficult for Bijan Robinson. This is a problem for Atlanta’s offense. Tampa Bay wins it.
Take: Bucs 23, Falcons 17
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5)
The Colts are a mess; they play back-to-back road games and they haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014, when Andrew Luck was the quarterback. Oh, and they traded away their best offensive lineman, Quentin Nelson. The Jaguars have just rested, so they will be rested. This one will get ugly as the Jaguars bounce back from the loss to the Texans in London.
Take: Jaguars 30, Colts 16
Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. on Fox (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The Battle of Los Angeles isn’t quite the matchup many expected before the season. The just-released Chargers haven’t won yet and the Rams have been a disappointment. But the Rams won last week in Las Vegas with seemingly good things. They’ll win here, but the rested Chargers will stay close.
Take: Rams 23, chargers 20
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) vs. Denver Broncos
The Chiefs offense was lifeless in Seattle on Sunday night and now faces a stout Denver defense. They need to find ways to get the running game going again with Kenneth Walker. Bo Nix showed some life last week in the win over Arizona, but this Chiefs defense will be a challenge. Look for a low-scoring game to be won by Kansas City, with Walker going up against Denver’s defense, which is giving up 4.6 yards per carry.
Take: Chiefs 19, Broncos 14
New England Patriots (-7) vs. Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins won their first game last week and have suffered numerous losses. But this New England team will be a challenge, even at home. The Patriots are coming off a bad road loss to the Bears, and they will be rested after playing Thursday. The defense limits the Dolphins offense and Drake Maye will play well. New England wins.
Take: Pats 28, Dolphins 14
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders (-5.5)
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
This could be a sort of elimination game for these two. Both need a win in the worst possible way – even in their horrible division. The Eagles are crippled by injuries, but Washington has plenty. With the Eagles on a short bye week for a Monday night game and the Commanders off, Washington will win it.
Take: Commanders 28, Eagles 16
Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3)
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN, ABC (Broadcast: Fubo — try for free)
The Bears have a head start behind Caleb Williams and an improved defense. But this is a tough road trip against a Seattle team that showed what it can do on defense by shutting down the Chiefs on Sunday night. Seattle also got the running game going. Seattle’s defense will slow down Chicago’s offense and the Seahawks will win it.
Take: Seahawks 24, Bears 17
Gn sports
