The U.S. Senate count in Alaska is far from over and a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot could decide the outcome of the vote.
As of Sunday, November 8, the state’s count had not changed since November 4. Of the 215,906 ballots counted, Democrat Mary Peltola was in the lead. Republican senator Dan S. Sullivan by 637 first choice votes. Neither candidate reached 50 percent. If either fails to reach that milestone by Nov. 18, voters’ ranked choices will begin to be considered.
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a Petersburger who shares the senator’s name, received 3,600 votes, more than five times Peltola’s lead. State voting data showed more of his voters ranked Peltola after the senator.
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The tally comes amid legal battles over Alaska’s elections. On November 1, a federal judge dismissed a Justice Department lawsuit seeking to block a Peltola victory because of confusion surrounding the two Sullivans. State officials argued in court that they “carefully designed the ballot to minimize voter confusion.” Gov. Mike Dunleavy has ordered an investigation into allegations that Peltola’s allies recruited Sullivan Jr., which both deny. Ranked choice itself is also on the ballot, with a measure to repeal it still being counted.
The state has about 51,000 early and absentee ballots that it has not yet counted, and more mail-in ballots may still arrive. If no one exceeds 50% on each ballot, the state counts the second choices on November 18. Newsweek distribution of what each candidate needs from the ballots still outstanding.
News week The Peltola and Sullivan campaigns reached out to the Peltola and Sullivan campaigns for comment via email on Wednesday. In our request, both campaigns were asked how they would respond if the winning margin was less than Sullivan Jr.’s vote total.
The ballots are still out
The figures received are from the November 4 state voting report. To estimate what is left, News week subtracted early and absentee ballots that already appear in the state’s digitized voting data from the number the state reports receiving. Rejected mail-in ballots are left behind because they will not be counted. The total will increase as more mail arrives.
Another 10,528 absentee ballots were sent but not returned. Domestic mail-in ballots can arrive until November 13, while overseas ballots until November 18.
Mathematics
The state counted 215,906 ballots cast. For 204,530 of them, those read by the scanners, it also published the ranking of the candidates by each voter. The other 11,400 or so, mostly counted manually in rural constituencies, are included in the vote totals, but their ranking is not yet public. News week used the rankings of scanned ballots to estimate the change in second choices, then applied those rates to the full state totals.
Ranked choice works in rounds. The candidate who comes in last place is eliminated and each of their ballots goes to the next choice of that voter still in the race. The state will not carry out this count until November 18. Here is Newsweek estimate:
- Registrations are abandoned first. Around 700 ballots, distributed almost equally, therefore hardly count.
- Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. is next in line, with 3,600 votes. About 1,040 go to Peltola, 590 to Sen. Sullivan and 650 to Gerald Heikes, a Republican from Palmer who finished third with 4,846 first-choice votes. About 1,320 didn’t rank anyone else. Peltola now leads with around 1,090 points.
- Heikes chases him with about 5,500 votes: his own 4,846 plus the 650 he just collected. About 2,380 go to Sen. Sullivan and 960 to Peltola. About 2,160 ranked neither.
- Estimated final round: Senator Sullivan about 105,290, Peltola about 104,960. Sullivan ahead by about 333.
Net effect: Second choices give Senator Sullivan about 970 votes more than Peltola, turning his 637-vote lead into an estimated 333-vote deficit. It is News weekThis is an estimate, not an official result.
Further results are expected in the coming days. Here’s how much of the roughly 51,000 uncounted ballots each candidate would need, based on the state’s tally and News weekThe second choice estimate of:
Winning completely means surpassing 50% of the top picks, so no tally of ranked picks is necessary. After a ranked choice, the action only counts votes for Peltola or Senator Sullivan. If 10,000 more mail-in ballots arrive on time, the outright bars will drop to 57.0% for Peltola and 58.0% for Sullivan, and the ranked choice bars barely move.
Simply put: if the uncounted ballots are evenly distributed, Senator Sullivan remains narrowly ahead in Newsthe estimate of k. Peltola needs to win them by around 0.7 points or more.
As for scale, state voting data showed that early and absentee ballots counted so far gave Peltola about 56.5% first-choice and 58% after ranked choice. Late arriving mail may be different, so this is a reference point and not a forecast.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Steven Frank and Oliver Pritchard.
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