We’re about a quarter of the way through the NFL season and we’ve learned a lot about every team in the league. The teams have plenty of time to continue as they have been or to surprise us by reversing course. But we have enough information to start making educated guesses about who is good and who isn’t, and who is probably just average.
This is why we are here today. We rank the NFL’s 32 teams into the following tiers: the dregs of the league, teams that probably aren’t very good, teams that are probably average, teams that are probably pretty good, and teams that look like inner-circle contenders. Let’s take a look.
Note: Teams at each level are listed in alphabetical order.
Level 5: The dregs
These two teams are really, really bad. They’re not the only teams at 0-4, but they’re clearly the ones with the least hope.
Level 4: probably not That GOOD
- Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Commanders
These teams go from 0-4 to 1-3 to 2-2 to even 3-1, but the underlying performance and/or schedule they’ve faced indicates they likely won’t be legitimate contenders. Some of them might make the playoffs, but they probably won’t make much, if any, noise.
Arizona pulled off a then-surprising win over the Chargers in Week 1, but has since gone 0-3, including a loss to the Jameis Winston-led Giants last week. Cleveland is 3-1, but every victory has required a game-winning score in the final five minutes, and the Browns have beaten their opponents only once. Green Bay’s defense without Micah Parsons is eminently beatable, and its offensive line looks like a disaster. That’s probably untenable unless Parsons drastically changes the Packers’ defensive fortunes upon his return.
Houston is 0-4 and their defense doesn’t look as good as expected. The passing offense has been good when Nico Collins has been active, but the Texans can’t pass the ball at all. The Colts have won back-to-backs, but their offense is nothing like last year’s as Daniel Jones recovers from an injury and the defense remains too friendly for them to be considered a good team yet. The Chargers are the most disappointing team in the NFL, and the less said about it, the better.
New Orleans seemingly can only move the ball in timeouts, and the Saints defense has been unable to generate stops consistently. The Giants are 3-1, but their last two wins with Winston at the helm came against the Titans and Cardinals, so we don’t really buy that they’re that good. The Jets looked much more competent offensively until last week against the Bears, and they gave up 381 and 492 yards to their last two opponents.
Pittsburgh has only really looked good for one game so far. Tampa hasn’t looked good or even acceptable at all this season and faces a backup quarterback situation for the next few weeks. The Bucs might already be out of the picture by the time Baker Mayfield returns – even in the NFC South. And the Commanders’ defense is once again not good enough for them to play any real role.
Level 3: probably average
The Falcons have been surprisingly good defensively thanks to the league’s most surprising pass rush, and the offense has looked really good over the past two weeks since Michael Penix returned. The only remaining questions are how real this offensive improvement is and whether they can actually maintain this peak productivity. Carolina looks pretty good behind a resurgent Bryce Young, but defensive injuries could plague the Panthers until their top two cornerbacks return.
Denver’s offense has looked miserable so far except in the second half against the Jaguars, and now the Broncos will be without key players like Patrick Surtain II and Pat Bryant for a while. However, there is potential with the defense of Sean Payton and then Vance Joseph. The Lions have an explosive offense and a decrepit defense. It’s hard to know what to do with them because they just can’t make consistent stops, but most teams can’t stop them either.
The Raiders’ only loss is to the Chiefs, and by only three points…but their three wins are against the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints, so we don’t necessarily know how good they are yet. We’re waiting to see a little more before bringing them up. The Pats haven’t really set the world on fire yet, but they just beat the Bills and looked good doing it. The Eagles have looked as dull as ever in their wins and losses, and they are hemorrhaging offensive linemen and high-end players. However, the team still has a lot of talent on defense, so if they can get things going on that end, they still have a chance to win the NFC East.
Level 2: probably pretty good
The Ravens have looked incredible every time Zay Flowers has been on the field. As long as Lamar Jackson’s injury doesn’t last long and hamper his return, we’re pretty comfortable declaring them a good team. The same goes for the Bears, who have been able to get the ball to everyone except the Vikings and should get Caleb Williams back fairly soon. Their defense has also been surprisingly effective thus far, although a lot of that has to do with their performance on third down.
We have to monitor injuries to Ja’Marr Chase (concussion) and Tee Higgins (adductor), but we know how good Cincinnati’s offense can be when all the cores are healthy, and the defense looks better than last year. Dallas’ defense still looks bad, but the Cowboys have been scoring at a rate that would be the best in the NFL since 2000 (3.39 points per drive). When your offense is this good, you can beat a bad defense – at least during the regular season. Minnesota is the opposite of Dallas. The defense is so good that it can overcome an attack that doesn’t seem ordinary.
Level 1: the inner circle (for now)
Buffalo had a problem in its game last week against the Patriots, but it otherwise looked pretty excellent. While we have to keep an eye on Jim Leonhard’s defense, the offense should bounce back from what it looked like a week ago. Aside from the second half against Denver, Jacksonville looks like one of the elite teams in the league. We are willing to consider this an exception to the rule and keep them in this group.
Kansas City may need help at receiver after injuries to Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton, but Kenneth Walker III has taken the offense to another level, and the defense under Steve Spagnuolo always ends up in playoff form. The Rams have alternated between looking ordinary (or worse) with looking much more like the team we expected going into the season, but as long as they can get through the season healthy, they have as high a two-way potential as any team in the NFL.
San Francisco and Seattle appear to be the two best teams in the league so far. The Niners cannot be stopped offensively, and despite a failure against Washington, the Seahawks still have arguably the best defense in the NFL when healthy (it’s them or the Vikings). These two teams should be a major factor throughout the year.
Gn sports
