- Former Republican senators are unlikely to publicly blame President Trump. There is a price for that. And don’t expect Trump to take responsibility for it.
- But expect outgoing Republican lawmakers to go after Trump or his team, and for Trump to hit back at Senate Republicans, whom he has never hesitated to torch.
The irony of Trump’s second term: While Republicans have privately resigned themselves to losing the House, Trump can still credibly claim victory if they retain the Senate.
- “It’s Donald Trump’s midterms. He gets all the credit if we win. He gets all the credit if we lose,” a Republican Party national strategist told Axios.
The war in Iran: From Alaska to Maine, Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran — and the resulting surge in gasoline and diesel prices — has become a major political liability for Republican Senate candidates.
- “It’s not tariffs…it’s war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel,” Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said at a closed-door fundraiser in September, Axios reported last month.
Prices: Trump’s trade policies have worsened Republicans’ affordability problems, particularly in agricultural regions, where producers face higher costs and uncertainty about export markets.
- “We have to end this tariff war now,” former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), the Republican Senate candidate, said in an October campaign ad, breaking with Trump over his tariffs on Canada.
Bad candidates: Trump’s preferred candidates are also being blamed, GOP strategists tell Axios.
- Paxton in Texas and Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina forced Republicans to spend huge sums defending races that should have been easier — and for which the party had other options.
Complacent holders: Senators Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) and Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) face accusations of “arrogance” and “laziness” from Republicans frustrated that their once-safe seats have become last-minute battlegrounds — exactly the complacency that NRSC Chairman Tim Scott has warned against.
Weak governors: Underperforming gubernatorial candidates in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio threaten to unseat Republican Senate candidates. Vivek Ramaswamy, for example, has seen his poll numbers plummet in recent weeks.
Recruitment failures: Republicans failed to persuade Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp to run for Senate, and in New Hampshire they chose Sununu, former Sen. John Sununu, over his brother, former Gov. Chris Sununu.
- Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) landed big-name candidates in Alaska, Ohio and Iowa — although Michigan and Maine proved tougher.
MAGA money: Trump’s political operation has amassed a huge war chest, but some Republicans complain the money came too late to save vulnerable candidates.
Distraction: Trump’s focus on Washington, D.C. construction projects, the Kennedy Center, Sen. Jon Husted’s (R-Ohio) backseat and the SAVE Act have frustrated Republicans desperate for a final message focused on the economy.
- “The Reflecting Pool presser was an interesting choice for the closing message,” another Republican Party national strategist said of Trump’s press conference Monday.
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