by PEOPLE
***
In close elections, pollsters are often reluctant to share their final numbers – especially if the election in question falls within their margin of error.
Rick Quinn – son of the late legendary strategist Richard Quinn – is clearly not burdened by such reluctance. With less than 16 hours before voters go to the polls, the veteran GOP pollster and tactician extraordinaire is letting it all hang out by releasing the results of his final survey of the Palmetto State’s divided electorate.
Data from Per Quinn, released Monday (November 2, 2026), Democrat Annie Andrews enjoys narrow lead over acting U.S. senator Darline Graham Nordone – sister of fire Lindsey Graham. Andrews was supported by 46.2% likely voters compared to 44.6% for Nordone – an advantage 1.6% for the Democratic challenger, according to the survey.
Quinn’s poll (.pdf) allowed other candidates to receive 2.7% of the vote and 6.5% of respondents are undecided.
According to Quinn, Nordone has some momentum behind her in the final days of the race – with two visits from the US president Donald Trump apparently encouraging many reluctant Republicans to support his candidacy.
***
“The race moved slightly in Graham’s (Nordone) direction over the last few days of voting,” Quinn said. “This is one of the closest general elections I have ever polled, and turnout on Election Day is key.”
“Trump’s two visits in recent weeks appear to have worked, at least to some extent,” Quinn added. “Republicans are rallying behind Graham (Nordone), which has tightened his race.”
Republican candidate for governor Alan Wilson — the Palmetto State’s four-term attorney general — enjoys a significant lead over his Democratic rival, state Rep. Jermaine Johnsonaccording to Quinn’s data. Wilson was supported by 50.6% of respondents – compared to 42.3% for Johnson. It is an edge of 8.3% – which means Wilson almost runs ten percentage points in front of Nordone.
Other candidates in the gubernatorial race were drawing lots 1.2% support, while 5.9% of those questioned say they are undecided.
“The question for Tuesday is simple: will the Republicans who have not yet voted be present?” Quinn noted this in his memo. “For Wilson, the answer determines the size of his lead. For Graham (Nordone), it decides the race.”
Referring to more than 1 million first votes cast in South Carolina over the past two weeks, Quinn noted an estimate 27% of them came from black voters – prompting him to model a final model of black turnout of 22.5%.
***
RELATED | FORMER GOVERNORS ENDORSE ANNIE ANDREWS
***
“If on Election Day, turnout brings that share down to 22 percent, Wilson will win by double digits and the Senate race will be a game of chance,” Quinn said. “If he stays close to 27 percent, Wilson still wins comfortably, but Graham (Nordone) is in serious trouble.”
Quinn questioned 600 likely voters on October 30, 2026. The margin of error of his poll is more or less 4% — meaning the U.S. Senate race is well within his margin of error.
National Republican Pollster Robert Cahaly also released the final results of its investigation on Monday – showing Nordone at 47.5% and Andrews at 45.5% with 2.8% respondents supporting other candidates and 4.2% undecided. In the gubernatorial race, Cahaly’s data (.pdf) showed Wilson with a 15% advances on Johnson – 54.1%–39.1% – with 2.1% respondents supporting other candidates and 4.7% undecided.
Cahaly interviewed 1,091 respondents between October 31 and November 1, 2026. The margin of error of his poll was more or less 2.9%meaning the U.S. Senate race is also within his margin of error.
Bottom line? Wilson is well-positioned to become governor-elect of South Carolina tomorrow night, while the U.S. Senate race is a definitional coin flip… which is absolutely shocking considering how reliably red South Carolina has been over the past few decades. Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in South Carolina since 2006 — and haven’t won a U.S. Senate election in the Palmetto State since 1998.
Against all odds, Andrews is an even bet to break that streak on Tuesday night…
***
THE INVESTIGATION…
Document reserved for subscribers
This PDF is available to FITSNews subscribers. Get full access and be able to view documents like this.
Subscribe to access
Already subscribed? Log in here
***
ABOUT THE AUTHOR…
Do people is the founding editor of the media outlet you are currently reading. Before founding FITSNews, he served as press secretary to the governor of South Carolina. He lives in the Midlands with his wife and eight children..
***
ITS COUPE…
Do you have something to say in response to one of our articles? Or a problem you would like to proactively solve? We have an open microphone policy! Submit your letter to the editor (or guest column) by email HERE. Do you have a tip for a story? CLICK HERE. A technical question or a bug to report? CLICK HERE.
Gn usa
