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Maine voters are in a negative mood this election season. Only 12% say their family is in a better financial situation than two years ago, and more than 6 in 10 people disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, including 2 in 10 Republicans.
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A Fox News survey of likely Maine voters finds mood weighing on Republican Sen. Susan Collins, as 53% fear she will vote too much with Trump. On the other hand, 46% fear that Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is too liberal.
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Despite these views, the horse race shows the candidates tied, with Jackson and Collins at 49% each. All investigative interviews were conducted after the candidates’ debate on October 15.
Collins, who first won his seat about three decades ago, is seeking a sixth term. She is the only Republican senator running for office this year in a state that Trump lost in 2024 (by 7 points). In 2020, Collins won by almost 9 points.
Democrats view Maine as a must-win seat in their effort to take control of the Senate. When voters are asked about control of the U.S. Senate, 53% prefer a Democratic-led Senate, compared to 45% who want Republicans to remain in power. While almost all Jackson supporters want Democratic control (96%), Collins supporters are more divided: 89% want a GOP-led House, but 9% prefer Democratic leadership.
Collins will have to overcome the energy of the left, because far more Democrats (79%) than Republicans (61%) say they are extremely interested in the election, which explains why Jackson is ahead by 16 points among that group. He’s up 4 points among those who say they’re “certain” to vote, and also ahead of one in five Mainers who have already voted by a decisive 40 points. On the other hand, a slim majority plans to vote on Election Day and favors Collins by 12 points.
“Collins is no stranger to running ahead of her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point edge in enthusiasm,” says Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, a Democratic polling firm that conducts the Fox News poll with Republican Daron Shaw. “Trump’s rating is 25 points underwater, and a majority strongly disapprove of him. Jackson has an opening if he can carry this momentum past his base and to the finish line.”
Views of the president’s performance are an issue for Republican candidates in Maine. Currently, 37% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 62% disapprove, including 54% who strongly disapprove.
The candidates’ personal preference ratings are both underwater. Opinions for Jackson are negative by 2 points (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable) and by 4 points for Collins (47%-51%).
Partisan vote choice varies markedly across key groups. Voters under 45 prefer Collins by 6 points, while those 45 and older prefer Jackson by 3 points. The women support Jackson by 5 points, while the men support Collins by 4 points.
The widest gap is in education: Mainers with a college degree choose Jackson by 23 points, while Collins leads among those without a degree by 16.
Collins is ahead by 7 points among those living in rural areas, while Jackson is the choice of fewer suburban voters by 18 points.
For comparison, in 2020, Collins won both voters living in rural areas and those without a college degree by 18 points each.
“Republicans appear to be having difficulty with white rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception,” Shaw said. “Republican candidates desperately need the presence of these voters and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas.”
Party loyalty is roughly even as 9 in 10 loyalists in each candidate’s party support him, and the small subgroup of independents favor Collins by 13 points. Supporters of Jackson (92%) and Collins (90%) have a high degree of vote certainty.
In the race for Maine governor, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by 10 points, 49% to 39%, while independent candidate Rick Bennett takes 9%.
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Unlike Jackson, whose coalition supports Pingree almost unanimously (only 8% defecting), nearly one in five Collins supporters (19%) side with either Bennett (11%) or Pingree (8%).
Conducted October 16-20, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,689 registered voters in Maine, randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (226) and cell phones (1,035) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (428). Results based on the sample of registered voters have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,514 likely voters it is ±2.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, the wording and order of questions can influence the results. Sources for developing target weights include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data. Weights are typically applied to the age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that respondent demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Likely Voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that draws on past voting history, interest in the current election, intent to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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