- Governor: Hochul 54% Blakeman 40% (September: Hochul 50-41%)
- Attorney General of the State of New York: James 54% Komatireddy 39% (September: 52-39%)
- State Controller: DiNapoli 59% Hernández 32% (September: 56-33%)
- Voting in Congress: Democrat 54% Republican 39% (September: 51-40%)
- A majority of voters – for the first time – view Hochul favorably, 51 to 45%
- More than 2/3 of voters – including 40% of Republicans – think Hochul will win
Press release crosstabs
Loudonville, New York. Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) widened her lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) to 54-40 percent, up from 50-41 percent in September, according to a new Siena poll of likely New York state voters released today. For the first time, a majority of voters, 51 to 45 percent, view Hochul favorably. By a margin of 68 to 23 percent, voters believe Hochul will win the election, including 40 percent of Republicans.
In the other two statewide elections, Democratic incumbents have double-digit leads. Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy, 54 to 39 percent, up slightly from September’s 52 to 39 percent, and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads Republican Joseph Hernandez 59 to 32 percent, up slightly from last month’s 56 to 33 percent. Democrats also increased their lead in the generic congressional vote and now lead 54 to 39 percent, up from 51 to 40 percent in September.
“Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is widening rather than narrowing,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “And here’s the bottom line: For Republicans to win statewide, they need to win convincingly in the upstate and downstate suburbs to offset the Democratic tsunami that is New York City, and they need to win independents by a significant margin to offset Democrats’ two-to-one registration advantage. But with just a week to go, Blakeman and Hochul are virtually tied in the upstate and the southern suburbs of the state, while Hochul has an 11-point lead with independents.
“Hochul leads the women’s by 23 points and also leads the men’s by six points,” Greenberg said. “White voters are narrowly divided, however, Hochul leads among Latinos by more than two to one, and among black voters, 81 to 16 percent.”
Hochul’s approval rating is 51-45%, up slightly from 48-46% in September. His job approval rating also increased this month, from 48-47% to 51-46%. Blakeman’s favorability rating of 39 to 40 percent compares to 35 to 34 percent last month.
“We have often noted that never in her five years as governor has Hochul’s favorable rating reached 50% in a state where 48% of voters are her fellow Democrats. We note that more than 51% of likely voters now view Hochul favorably and 51% approve of the job she is doing as governor,” Greenberg said. “Although Blakeman has become better known to more voters during the campaign, voters are narrowly divided, with 39% viewing him favorably and 40% viewing him unfavorably.
“Three in ten voters, including 51 percent of Democrats, say Hochul, if elected, will make life more affordable for the average New Yorker, while 27 percent, including 60 percent of Republicans, say Blakeman will make life more affordable if elected,” Greenberg said. “A majority of voters, 35 percent, including 45 percent of independents, say neither candidate would make life more affordable for the average New Yorker,” Greenberg said.
“When will the prediction come true? With Hochul leading Blakeman by 14 points, voters overwhelmingly think Hochul will win, 68-23%,” Greenberg said. “Even Republicans aren’t convinced their candidate will win, as 49% think Blakeman will win, but 40% of Republican voters say Hochul will win re-election.”
DiNapoli has a 27-point lead over Hernandez; James leads Komatireddy by 15 points
DiNapoli has a favorability rating of 47 to 16 percent, up from 41 to 18 percent last month. Hernández’s approval rating is 21-13-66%, up from 16-9-74% in September. James’ favorability rating is 51-39%, little change from 51-40% last month. Komatireddy has a favorability rating of 26-15-59%, up from 17-12-71% in September.
“DiNapoli, the state’s least known official, received more votes than any other candidate in New York in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Unless something dramatic happens in the final week — virtually unheard of in a down-ballot race — he appears headed for an easy victory over Hernandez and leading the poll again,” Greenberg said. “While James doesn’t have a DiNapoli-sized lead, she appears poised for comfortable re-election, with the support of 87 percent of Democrats and leading among independents between 50 and 40 percent. Komatireddy must overcome a 70-22 percent deficit in New York, made more difficult since she’s also trailing in the downstate suburbs, between 50 and 44 percent.”
Democrats extend lead to 15 points in congressional wildcard vote
“Democrats have a 54 to 39 percent lead over Republicans in the generic congressional vote, up from 51 to 40 percent last month,” Greenberg said. “While this is not a harbinger of what is to come in any particular congressional district, it does indicate that overall, New York voters, including independents by a margin of 50 to 36 percent, prefer an unnamed Democrat over an unnamed Republican for election to the House,” Greenberg said.
Everything and nothing
- ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) continues to be viewed unfavorably, between 37 and 60 percent. This is an improvement for ICE from the 28-67% favorable rating recorded in January. By a margin of 60 to 37 percent, voters oppose the operation of ICE, a figure that was little changed from 36 to 60 percent in August. A majority, 62%, say ICE’s tactics went too far, 11% say it didn’t go far enough and 24% say ICE’s tactics are about right, little change from August’s 63-12-24%.
- Voters say the state is going in the wrong direction (not on the right track) 49-41%, a slight improvement from last month’s 49-38%. By a margin of 66 to 27 percent, voters believe the country is heading in the wrong direction, virtually unchanged from September’s 66 to 28 percent.
- President Donald Trump has an approval rating of 36 to 61 percent, up slightly from September’s 34 to 63 percent. His job approval rating stands at 37-62%, also up slightly from 35-62% last month.
- Zohran Mamdani’s favorability rating is 47-43%. It was 46-44% last month. He is popular with Democrats, 75-16 percent, and is better than two to one in New York, 69-28 percent, up from 60-31 percent last month.
- By 48 percent to 28 percent, voters say Trump’s support of Blakeman has been negative for this campaign (51 to 30 percent last month), and Mamdani’s support of Hochul has been positive for his campaign, 45 to 30 percent (50 to 30 percent in September).
Methodology
This Siena poll was conducted October 19-22, 2026 among 807 likely New York voters. Of the 807 respondents, 494 were contacted via dual mode (landline and mobile) (313 completed via SMS to Web). Telephone calls were made in English and sampling of respondents was initiated by asking for the name of the voter registered in the voter file. Telephone sampling was conducted using a stratified dual-frame probability sample of landline and cellular telephone numbers, weighted to reflect known population trends. The landline sample and cell phone sample were obtained from the L2 voter database. Duplicate responses are identified by their response ID and removed from the sample. Coding of open-ended responses was performed by a single human coder. Data from collection modes were weighted to balance sample demographics to match New York population estimates using state voter file data, age, region, race/ethnicity, education, party identification, a combined measure of reported and derived voting probability, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, including design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error, and there may be other unmeasured errors in this or any other public opinion poll. The Siena Research Institute (SRI) powered by ReconMR is directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D.. SRI conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in New York. SRI, an independent, nonpartisan research institute, subscribes to the Code of Ethics and Professional Practices of the American Association of Public Opinion Research.
For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858.
For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
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