SpaceX (SPCX) will report its highly anticipated third-quarter results after the bell on Tuesday, only its second report as a public company. The report comes as the stock has rallied in recent weeks.
After losing nearly 30% following its $150 IPO during its first weeks as a public company, SpaceX stock recovered in the third quarter and is now trading around its debut price.
As for the quarter itself, SpaceX is expected to report third-quarter revenue of $12.7 billion, according to the Bloomberg consensus, up sequentially from the second quarter’s $7.8 billion. SpaceX is expected to report adjusted EPS of $0.15, with adjusted EBITDA of $6.59 billion.
The key to SpaceX’s quarterly results is what’s happening in its AI unit, now called SpaceXSI. In the last quarter, the unit recorded an operating loss of $1.26 billion versus estimates of $2.39 billion, with AI spending reaching $15.8 billion in the quarter, more than expected and well above the $7.7 billion spent in the first quarter.
147.86 -0.10 (-0.07%)
At 10:51:19 a.m. EDT. Open market.
The worry is whether this AI spending will continue to rise as SpaceX continues to invest in data centers like Colossus and AI products like Grok and its agent, Grok Bot, and whether the company can get the funding it needs to support its infrastructure spending.
“The need for additional financing remains a major driver of sentiment, particularly given the recent Neocloud debt saga,” Adam Jonas, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a note published Monday. “This is the biggest risk to our model, and we don’t want to downplay it, although a hypothetical world in which SpaceX cannot raise financing will likely have much broader implications for the economy and the rest of an investor’s portfolio.”
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SpaceX surprises Wall Street with October 20 earnings date – here’s why
While Wall Street was still in a state of disbelief late last week that Elon Musk had made a flying Tesla (TSLA) Roadster, his SpaceX (SPCX) team posted a not-so-small note on its investor relations page.
SpaceX results will be released on October 20 after the market close. The announcement came as a surprise to many on the Street, as it is common for results release dates to be shared weeks in advance.
But there may be several reasons behind SpaceX’s rushed earnings date.
“Possible explanations include a desire to release updated financials in advance of new financing deals or to share urgent operational/strategic updates – either ahead of quid pro quos or to give the market time to digest the implications before large lock-up releases (1.30 billion shares two days after earnings, 329 million on 10/24 and the group’s remaining 857 million 180 days thereafter). Or the explanation could be as mundane as calendar – it’s just hard to know,” said Evercore ISI analyst Kutgun Maral.
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, October 8, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci · REUTERS/REUTERS Learn more.
SpaceX has a significant financial swing factor that investors are focusing on a lot
The deciding factor in whether SpaceX (SPCX) stock actually takes off in 2027 could revolve around what happens on Mother Earth, particularly how much computing power the company sells to a world hungry for AI infrastructure builders.
“For next year, the biggest mover from forecast will, in our view, be compute deployment. Management is targeting >2 GW at the end of 4Q26, which we believe is achievable, then 5-10 GW at the end of 2027. We continue to model down the scale to around 6 GW and have our sights set on purchasing 5-7 GW of power over the next two years,” he said. said Edison Yu, analyst at Deutsche Bank.
CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA, UNITED STATES – 2026/10/13: A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket and Dragon spacecraft with supplies for the International Space Station (ISS) take off from SLC 40 at the Cape Canaveral Space Station in Cape Canaveral. The CRS-35 mission’s cargo includes replacement solar panels for the ISS and three live shrimp as part of the SCAMPI research project. This was SpaceX’s 35th flight under the Commercial Resupply Services 2 contract with NASA. (Photo by Paul Hennessy/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) · SOPA images via Getty Images Learn more.
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