Super El Nino is ‘off the charts’ – and that could be good for New York, bad for parts of the US

An unusual Super El Niño, expected to peak this winter, could be strangely good for New York City, while other parts of the United States could be hit by storms and flooding, forecasters said Thursday.

The “giant” weather system – measured by sea surface temperatures – could reach more than six times that of a typical El Niño between November and January, according to the World Meteorological Organization.

“This literally exceeds the monitoring graphs we have used over the last four decades,” Celeste Saulo, WMO secretary, said Wednesday.

In the Big Apple, the weather could feel like fall in January — with up to a quarter less snow this winter than last year, AccuWeather senior meteorologist Matt Benz told the Post.

Super El Nino chart. WMO

“Fall will last longer this year,” Benz said. “We expect winter to come later.”

“By mid-to-late January, we will start to get a taste of winter in the tri-state area,” he said.

While 43 inches of snow fell last year in New York, only 10 to 20 inches are forecast this year, he said.

Much of the northeastern United States is also expected to experience a mild winter due to the weather system.

Heavy snowfall in Manhattan Stephen Yang for the NY Post

However, parts of the western United States will not benefit from Super El Niño.

“Northern California could experience frequent storms with rain and wind, as well as coastal storms with erosion,” Benz said.

“California and the desert southwest are at greatest risk of flooding,” he said.

Parts of the southern United States, including the northern Gulf Coast, are expected to see more “heavy rain,” he said.

Hundreds of people gather for a snowball fight in Washington Square Park in Manhattan on Monday, February 23, 2026. Paul Martinka for the NY Post
Dark storm clouds hover over the city of Los Angeles during a break between storms. Getty Images

Meanwhile, the Rockies, Sierra Nevada and parts of the Midwest Plains will likely be hit with heavier snowfall, he said.

“El Nino is a term that comes up every year, but in this case it could be one of the strongest on record,” Benz said.

On Wednesday, UN emergency relief chief Tom Fletcher described Super El Niño as “a wrecking ball” with extreme heat, droughts and floods on a global scale.

“This El Niño is a monster,” Fletcher said.

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