The supermarket hacks could be part of a model of collaboration between state services and the underworld long observed in Russia. “As geopolitical tensions increase, I expect more of them to collaborate with criminal groups or pose as criminals themselves, using ransomware and extortion as cover for state objectives,” said Joseph Rooke, senior director at cyber intelligence firm Recorded Future.
There are many plausible explanations for France’s first round of refrigerator attacks, ranging from bored teenagers to a disgruntled former employee. But these attacks have shown opposing foreign nations how easy it is to target supermarkets, and the level of disruption and confusion it can cause.
Although many supermarket chains reported that only a small number of their stores were affected, the attacks attracted public attention and sent the message that remote cyberattackers can target critical services. “Cyberattacks do not need to be designed as psychological operations to have cognitive effects,” said Charl van der Walt, head of security research at Orange Cyberdefense.
“On this scale, and also because of the repetition of what happened, I am no longer really convinced that it was someone very innocent,” said cybersecurity researcher Inti De Ceukelaire.
The Russian Foreign Ministry did not respond to a request for comment. The Belgian federal public prosecutor’s office confirmed local media reports on Monday that it had opened a criminal investigation into the attacks.
Counterfactuals
Experts have cautioned that other potential culprits are still entirely plausible. “All options seem open as to who could have done this, from state actors to lone actors,” said James Sullivan, director of cyberspace at the British think tank RUSI.
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