California voters are unhappy with the Nov. 3 vote to impose a one-time tax on billionaires to help fund health care programs, a proposal that sparked one of the costliest political battles in state history.
Half of likely voters plan to vote against Proposition 40, the proposed wealth tax on billionaires’ assets, while 42 percent support it, according to a new poll by the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley and co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times. The results mark a significant decline in support for the measure, which was developed by an influential California health care union to offset an estimated $100 billion in federal health care cuts approved by President Trump and congressional Republicans.
The survey also found that a solid majority of likely voters opposed Proposition 39, which would require Californians to provide identification when voting and for election officials to verify that registered voters are U.S. citizens. These findings come as the Trump administration continues to attack California as a haven for voter fraud, including unfounded claims of widespread illegal voting by undocumented immigrants.
Mark DiCamillo, poll director, said previous polls showed support for Proposition 40 was fragile, and the most recent one shows its prospects have dimmed as Election Day approaches.
The increase in opposition to Proposition 40 is “broad and covers virtually every major segment of the electorate,” DiCamillio said. The ballot measure was leading in a Berkeley poll just six weeks ago, although by a narrow margin, meaning its reversal of fortune is significant, he said.
This decline in support comes after a wave of money spent to oppose Proposition 40, including a torrent of television and social media ads running everywhere from NFL games to reruns of “Everybody Loves Raymond.” Nearly $368 million was contributed to efforts against the billionaires tax, while $36 million was donated to support the proposed levy.
Proposition 40 would impose a one-time 5% tax on the assets of billionaires residing in California starting January 1, with some exceptions. Democrats and their allies are divided on the proposal. Some, including Gov. Gavin Newsom, say it will cause the wealthy to flee California, further harming its volatile budget, which depends on the state’s wealthiest residents. The California Democratic Party and leading progressives support the measure, with Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) calling it a modest tax needed to help Californians struggling because of Republican cuts to fund tax breaks for the wealthy.
While Republican voters overwhelmingly oppose Proposition 40, nearly two-thirds of Democrats support it and more than a quarter oppose it. There is also a generational divide, with 6 in 10 voters aged 65 or older opposed to the measure, while more than two-thirds of those under 30 support it, according to the poll.
The results are similar to a Public Policy Institute of California poll released Tuesday that found 52% of likely voters would vote against Proposition 40, while 46% would support it.
The campaign against the wealth tax, funded by some of California’s wealthiest tech moguls, is centered on three closely related ballot initiatives: Proposition 40 and Propositions 41 and 42, both of which would weaken Proposition 40 through a series of changes to state tax laws and spending restrictions.
Proposition 41 would reduce wasteful government spending by requiring audits of new special state taxes and prohibit new state taxes that are exempt from a state spending cap. Proposition 42 would prohibit new taxes on retirement assets, individual assets and other personal savings. Propositions 41 and 42 would strike down the billionaires tax if passed, provided either measure receives more votes.
A plurality of voters oppose Propositions 41 and 42, a turnaround from just six weeks ago, according to the poll.
As of mid-September, voters were sharply divided on Proposition 41 — 37% for and 33% against — with large numbers undecided. In the current poll, 38% of likely voters favor the measure and 47% oppose it. Proposition 42 led by 9 percentage points in the September Berkeley/LA Times poll – 43% for and 34% against. Today, 43% of likely voters support it and 45% oppose it.
DiCamillo said supporters of a ballot measure should also be concerned any time support registers below 50%, because undecided or unsure voters tend to vote no.
“It’s below 50% and it’s trending downward. Those are two worrying signs,” DiCamillo said. Proposition 42 is “still very close. I’m not saying it’s definitely going to go down, but it’s moving in the wrong direction at the end of the campaign, and usually the movement in a late poll is even more significant than the actual numbers themselves,”
He added that while many voters were unaware that the two proposed measures were designed as poison pills to kill the billionaires’ tax, among those who did know, opposition was significantly greater.
If all three measures fail, it would still be a victory for the billionaires who have spent aggressively to cut the wealth tax.
Another notable result was voter support for Proposition 3, which would make permanent a higher income tax rate on the wealthy who fund education. A majority of voters — 54% — are in favor of maintaining this levy, while 37% are opposed to it, according to the poll. DiCamillo says the disparity in favor of the proposed billionaires tax and the expansion of the existing wealth tax is consistent in IGS polls, and is likely due to the different underpinnings of the levies.
“Proposition 3 is already in place, and if you read the fiscal impact, if it were to pass, it would maintain annual funding of $5 billion to $15 billion,” he said. “It’s a major revenue generator, and I think it’s something that’s already in place.”
“Voters kind of understand the progressive nature of California’s tax system and they support that, but they’re not as supportive of the idea of a new type of tax, the wealth tax, that would tax assets rather than income,” he said. “So that’s the distinction.”
These ballot measures are among 14 that voters will decide on Nov. 3, as well as in statewide, congressional, local and judicial elections.
Other controversial measures include Proposition 39, a measure pushed by Republicans that would require all voters in upcoming elections to present a government-issued ID every time they vote in person or provide a special PIN or the last four digits of their Social Security number when submitting their absentee ballot.
The measure would also require California’s secretary of state and county election officials to verify that registered voters are U.S. citizens by “using government data,” which supporters say could include information in the federal Social Security Administration’s database, jury summons information and other government records.
Nearly 6 in 10 likely voters oppose the effort, while more than a third support it, divided largely along partisan lines. More than half of voters registered as “no party preference” or belonging to a smaller political party oppose the proposition, which DiCamillo said is an indication of problems for the proposition given the state’s majority Democratic electorate and proximity to the election.
“It’s hard for Republicans to get it across the finish line themselves,” he said.
Other important election measures:
- Proposition 43, which would prohibit local governments from imposing certain new special taxes unless two-thirds of voters approve the proposition. Such proposals require a simple majority vote to be approved. While 46% of likely voters oppose the proposition, 36% support it, calling the numbers into question as Election Day approaches, DiCamillo said. “There needs to be 50,” he said. “We’ll see how you proceed at this end of the campaign.”
- Proposition 4, which would repeal the ban on public campaign financing, allowing state and local governments to support candidates if they follow several rules. Likely voters are evenly divided on the proposition, with 41% for and against, and 18% undecided. “It’s close, but it’s still below 50 percent. Most voters tend to vote no late if they’re not convinced,” DiCamillo said, adding that he views the lack of support among voters who are not affiliated with a political party as a signal of potential failure.
The poll of 2,787 registered California voters was conducted online in English and Spanish from Oct. 19-25 and has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points in either direction.
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