Talarico leads Paxton in new poll as early voting continues in Texas

Democrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for the U.S. Senate in Texas. (FOX local)

A new poll shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race as early voting continues across Texas.

The poll was conducted by Texas Public Opinion Research between October 15 and 18 and surveyed 969 likely Texas voters and has a margin of error of 3.9%.

In figures:

The TPOR poll found that 51% of respondents support Talarico, a four-point lead over Paxton (47%). Libertarian Ted Brown received 2%. Talarico’s lead has narrowed by one point since last month’s TPOR poll and by two points since August. Brown also saw his support decline by 1%.

Friday’s poll is the latest in a series of polls that show conflicting information about who will lead the race to become Texas’ next senator.

Talarico leads independent voters

Dig Deeper:

Talarico continues to enjoy strong support among independent voters, with 66% saying they support him, compared to 28% for Paxton and 6% for Brown.

The Democrat also leads Paxton with black voters (87%-11%), Latino voters (60%-39%), female voters (54%-47%) and voters under 55.

Paxton’s support comes from white voters (60 to 38%), men (50 to 47%), voters without a college degree (50 to 47%), and voters over 55.

Since September, men have shifted their support from Talarico to Paxton, according to a TPOR poll.

Which candidate will do the most to tackle the cost of living, AI and data centers?

Voters were asked which candidate would do the most to improve Texans’ financial situation and which candidate they thought would do the best job handling issues related to artificial intelligence and data centers.

Respondents said they thought Talarico would do more to combat the cost of living crisis and improve the financial situation of ordinary Texans, 51% to 43%, compared to Paxton. Ted Brown was the choice of 3% of voters and 4% were unsure who would have the best plan.

The margin was much narrower when it came to data centers, with 47% saying they felt Talarico would handle AI and data center issues better than Paxton (43%) and Brown (3%). More voters (8%) were undecided about the best plan versus a plan for increasing costs.

Where are they?

FOX Local is publishing articles each week leading up to the start of early voting in Texas on October 19 on Paxton and Talarico’s positions on various issues. Here’s a preview of the cover:

Early voting for the November general election will run through October 30. Election day is November 3.

The source : The information in this article comes from a Texas Public Opinion Research poll conducted October 15-18 of 969 likely Texas voters with a margin of error of 3.9%.

TexasTexas PoliticsPolitics2026 ElectionsKen Paxton

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