A decade ago, the Paris Agreement came into force, binding nearly all countries to a common goal: keeping global warming well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels and continuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C (2.7°F).
A decade later, the agreement has helped strengthen climate policies and drive rapid expansion of clean energy. But emissions remain near record levels, temperatures continue to rise and countries are still far from the reductions needed to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach.
In this visual explainer, Al Jazeera examines the goals of the Paris Agreement, how much global temperatures have risen since then, and the countries behind the emissions.
What is the Paris Agreement?
The Paris Agreement is a legally binding climate treaty adopted by 196 parties at the United Nations climate summit in Paris, also known as COP21, on December 12, 2015. It entered into force on November 4, 2016.
The United States, the world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China, has joined and left the agreement twice. President Donald Trump ordered both withdrawals. The first took effect in November 2020, and President Joe Biden re-entered the country in February 2021. The United States left again in January this year, 12 months after Trump ordered them to leave for the second time.
Today, 194 parties, 193 countries and the European Union are signatories to the agreement.
Rather than imposing the same reductions on everyone, the deal calls for each government to set its own targets through nationally determined contributions, or NDCs, outlining how it will reduce emissions and adapt to climate change.
Countries submit a new, more ambitious NDC every five years, and a global stocktake assesses collective progress during the same cycle. The agreement also covers reporting, climate finance and support for developing countries.
The agreement does not require countries to meet their targets. It is counting on transparency and international pressure to increase its ambitions.
How close is the world to exceeding the 1.5°C limit?
Temperatures have continued to rise since the agreement was adopted.
In 2024, the planet was for the first time 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels over a full calendar year.
The last three years, from 2023 to 2025, have been the warmest on record and the first three-year period to record average warming above 1.5°C.
The long-term average warming now stands at around 1.4°C, and scientists expect it to exceed 1.5°C towards the end of this decade.
In October, the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) declared that the chance of keeping warming at 1.5°C without exceeding it was lost.
“Each additional fraction of a degree and each additional year of warming above 1.5°C increases climate impacts and risks, such as the deadly floods, heatwaves and wildfires that have hit many countries this year,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen.
The outlook is nevertheless less gloomy than it was in 2015.
When the Paris Agreement was signed, existing policies put the world on track for warming of around 3.6°C by 2100. According to the Climate Action Tracker, this projection has since fallen to around 2.6°C as countries have adopted climate policies and clean energy has expanded.
However, progress has stalled since 2021 and current policies still point to far more warming than the deal promised.
Which countries emit the most?
Carbon dioxide, the main cause of warming, comes mainly from the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, while deforestation is causing the trees that once absorbed it to disappear.
China, the United States and India now produce more than half of the world’s annual emissions. China alone emits more than the United States, India, Russia and Japan combined, even though the United States has historically emitted the most carbon emissions.
Investments in clean energy are now almost double those in fossil fuels, but emissions reductions have been too slow to keep 1.5°C within reach.
The chart below ranks the largest emitters in 2024 and shows how their emissions have changed since the agreement came into force in 2016.
China remains by far the biggest polluter, and its emissions have continued to rise alongside those of India and Indonesia, as these fast-growing economies burn more coal to meet growing electricity demand. Indonesia moved into the top 10, replacing Canada.
Germany, Japan and the United States have reduced their emissions, largely by replacing coal with renewable energy and gas. But growth elsewhere has outpaced those reductions, and global emissions are 9% higher than in 2016.
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