A developing Super El Niño exerts its influence throughout the atmosphere, shaping weather patterns from the southwest to the Atlantic. FOX Weather meteorologists Ian Oliver and Haley Meier explain how the powerful weather pattern will continue to affect the United States this fall and winter.
In less than 24 hours, the Climate Prediction Center is expected to officially declare a Super El Niño, which is expected to remain in effect until next winter.
Since late spring, El Niño has been in effect and strengthens throughout the summer and early fall.
FOX Weather Meteorologist Steve Bender analyzes El Niño and the impacts it can have around the world and on the economy.
Forecasters have been warning for months that El Niño would reach “super” status, the point at which water temperatures would be at least 2 degrees Celsius above average in the equatorial Pacific for at least three consecutive months.
PENA BECOMES FIRST NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM TO FORM IN CENTRAL PACIFIC SINCE 1982 AMID INTENSIFYING EL NIÑO
(FOX Weather)
They predicted this would occur in late fall and maintain this status until spring 2027, when La Niña conditions are expected to take over.
Assessments by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) found that water temperatures during the three months of July, August and September were not high enough to meet the “very strong” or “super” El Niño category.
(FOX Weather)
However, on Thursday morning, the CCP is expected to announce that August, September and October have indeed reached the 2 degree Celsius threshold needed for Super El Niño.
Although not yet an official Super El Niño, the weather pattern has proven to have significant impacts, particularly with respect to hurricane season in the Pacific and Atlantic.
El Niño’s impacts on the 2026 hurricane season
The Eastern Pacific had one of the busiest seasons on record, with only four names on the roster for the season.
The Atlantic, on the other hand, has had a record underactive season, with only 1 hurricane and 10 named storms for the season so far.
NASA SATELLITES REVEAL STRIKING OCEAN COLOR CHANGE AS SUPER EL NIÑO STRENGTHENS
(FOX Weather)
In the Atlantic, wind shear limited storm development, while in the Pacific, warm ocean temperatures and limited wind shear helped fuel tropical activity, all thanks to El Niño.
The impacts of El Niño won’t stop there, as the climate pattern is also expected to have significant impacts on the upcoming winter.
What Super El Niño Could Mean for Winter
NOAA’s winter outlook for the 2026-27 season indicates that more storms are expected from Southern California across the entire South to Florida.
During a Super El Niño, the Pacific jet stream tends to become larger and more active, acting like a conveyor belt that directs storms farther across the southern part of the continent. WE.
SUPER EL NIÑO-POWERED WINTER COULD LIGHT MORE STORMS, LEADING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IN THE SOUTH
Southeast Winter Forecast
(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
This increased likelihood of storms is expected to keep temperatures near normal in the Southeast throughout the winter.
Super El Niños of the past vs today
In recent years, we’ve seen a Super El Niño, but forecasters don’t yet know what this Super El Niño will be like compared to others in history.
The winters of 1997-98 and 2015-26 were both Super El Niño years.
SUPER EL NIÑO YESTERDAY AND TODAY: HOW THIS YEAR’S STRENGTHENING EVENT COMPARES TO HISTORICAL EXTREMES
Ron Williams (left) walks past a Jeep as he walks home from the grocery store in Denver, CO on October 25.
(DOUG COLLIER/AFP/Getty Images)
Forecast clues indicate that this most closely resembles the winter of 1997-98.
In 1997-98, Super El Niño brought a major snowstorm in October from Colorado to Maine.
(FOX Weather)
HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER
Then, just after the start of the new year in 1998, torrential rains and a major ice storm swept through the Midwest, Southeast, and Northeast.
While forecasters continue to monitor strengthening conditions and their impacts, it is too early to know exactly how this year’s expected Super El Niño will shape the story.
Gn usa
