The Padres are among the teams that have expressed interest in Tarik Skubal early in the offseason, reports Jon Morosi of The MLB Network. San Diego has been speculated as a dark horse for the two-time Cy Young winner, but this is the first definitive connection to the game’s top free agent.
It’s a fascinating offseason for the Friars. They have significantly reduced free agent spending since the 2023 death of former owner Peter Seidler. The Seidler family sold the franchise to a group led by José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones over the summer. This has sparked optimism among fans that the Padres will return to the high end of the market.
The Padres’ string of delayed contracts has left them with a luxury tax amount considerably higher than cash payroll in recent years. MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker (courtesy of contributor Ethan Hullihen) shows that they finished the 2026 season with a tax figure of around $269.43 million and an actual payroll in the range of $224 million. They are projected around $193 million in the double digits for the 2027 season, including arbitration estimates. Next year’s thresholds won’t be set until a new collective bargaining agreement is in place as MLB pushes for a cap/floor system. (The cap would not take effect until at least 2028, even if the league were able to convince the MLBPA to relent on its long-standing strong opposition.)
Skubal is expected to easily beat the current record annual value of $43.333 million for a pitcher. MLBTR predicts he will both set a new AAV record and easily surpass the $325 million guarantee held by Yoshinobu Yamamoto. We were planning a nine-year, $425 million contract; San Diego’s franchise record is their $340 million extension for Fernando Tatis Jr. They only gave an annual value of $30 million to one player, Manny Machado — although they technically did so for both Machado’s initial free agent contract and his extension in 2023 to void his opt-out clause. Machado and Alexandre Bogaerts are the two players they gave a free agent contract exceeding $200 million.
The Padres need to overhaul essentially their entire rotation. Michael King withdrew, while the team declined what amounted to a two-year, $32 million option on Nick Pivetta. Acquisition deadline Casey Mize And Robbie Ray It seems unlikely that he will return as a free agent. Walker Bühler, Griffin Canned Foods And Lucas Giolito also all arrived on the market.
Randy Vasquez is San Diego’s only returning pitcher to start more than six games this year. We don’t know exactly what they can expect. Joe Musgrove or if Yu Darvish will continue his career in the MLB. It’s possible that no members of the team’s season-opening rotation are on the roster yet. Even if they re-sign King or pull off a surprise high-end strike for Skubal, they’ll need to do a ton of work to shore up depth.
Skubal is not linked to a qualifying offer, as Detroit’s midseason trade with the Dodgers made him ineligible. The brothers issued a QO to Adrien Morejón and would receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round of next year’s draft if he signs elsewhere. Trevor Rogers was the only starting pitcher to receive a QO this year. The Padres would give up their second- and fifth-highest picks, as well as $1 million in international bonus space, if they signed Rogers. No other free agents would be attached to draft compensation.
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