President Donald Trump could well have cost Republicans the Senate majority in 2020 and 2022.
In the first case, even Trump himself admitted that his stolen electoral crusade could have harmed turnout in the decisive runoff in Georgia. And in the latter case, Trump loaded his party with a number of low-quality MAGA candidates that he supported and who then lost very winnable seats.
Could this happen again in 2026?
It certainly seems possible. And recent developments make this spectrum larger.
The biggest example is the Texas Senate race. But Trump also made it harder for his party to win seats in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina.
It is unclear whether Trump’s involvement changed the final outcome of any of these negotiations. But if the battle for the majority is close, the party could certainly ruin some of Trump’s maneuvers – again.
Trump said this week he had “no regrets” about supporting state Attorney General Ken Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in the May runoff. But the same probably can’t be said for many members of his party.
Paxton still hasn’t repaired his image since that brutal election, and some recent polls suggest he’s actually lost ground since then. His standing is in double digits in most polls — including by about 20 points in two recent polls — and he now trails Democrat James Talarico by six points in three different polls.
Cornyn is also not a popular politician right now. And judging by how competitive Democrats are in red states like Alaska, Iowa and Ohio, it’s possible he could have been vulnerable as well. But Paxton’s problems are large and obvious for all to see: A recent Fox News poll showed Talarico winning 20 percent of likely voters who supported Cornyn in the March primary.
(Cornyn has avoided supporting Paxton to this day. And CNN’s Patrick Svitek on Friday reported leaked audio of Paxton privately saying Cornyn wanted him to lose.)
Even Trump seems to be well aware of Paxton’s flaws as a candidate, judging by the way he has mocked his appearance, his dressing and his speech. Paxton also has plenty of other baggage, including indictment and criminal charges.
The conventional wisdom after the primary was that Trump was likely to support Cornyn, although Cornyn sometimes criticized Trump gently, because Cornyn had a better chance of holding the seat. Trump said an approval would come “soon.”
But Trump just didn’t do it. A few weeks later, when Paxton was poised to win the runoff, Trump came on board and sealed the deal.
If Paxton loses and the Democrats gain a simple majority, Cornyn’s non-support could appear to be a THE pivotal moment of the 2026 elections.
Cornyn is, of course, not the only Senate Republican that Trump has sidelined.
Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina has spoken openly about how Trump’s attacks pushed him toward the exit. In his new book, he recalls how he decided to retire just after Trump attacked him on social media and said he was looking for other candidates.
“Ack Mr. President,” he texted Trump, according to the book. “Now would be a good time to start looking for my replacement. »
Trump replied: “I am! DJT.”
That didn’t work out so well for the GOP. Tillis stepped down, and then popular Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper took office. Today, it appears the Republican Party may abandon North Carolina, even though Trump has won it in all three of his elections.
Tillis could very well have struggled against Cooper in this environment as well. But that’s if Cooper actually challenged him. And Tillis would have at least benefited from his tenure.
There is no doubt that he would have been more formidable than the man the Republican Party rallied around, former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. Whatley’s image has been underwater in the most recent quality polls from Elon University and Fox News.
Last June, Trump decided to support Georgia Rep. Mike Collins over former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley in the GOP Senate runoff. And that made sense, given that Collins was the most MAGA candidate and Dooley was supported by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, who has sometimes tangled with Trump.
But even then, it was clear that Collins could be a problematic candidate, given some of his past controversies. And the situation has only gotten worse since then, with a series of revelations about Collins’ apparent ties to white nationalists.
Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is very popular, so Dooley is unlikely to have made the race competitive. But as with North Carolina, Trump probably sealed the deal. And as with North Carolina, there are signs that the Republican Party may be throwing in the towel.
The latest addition to this list is one that Republicans are unlikely to lose. But South Carolina still proves to be an unnecessary headache.
Amid some concerns in the state, which Trump won by 18 points in 2024, the Republican Party recently decided to spend $5 million to support nominated Sen. Darline Graham in her race against Democrat Annie Andrews. And Trump recently decided to attack Andrews on social media using an anti-transgender slur.
Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, emerged from near-total obscurity when Trump endorsed her for the nomination to replace her brother in July. Then both decided that she should also run for a full term. She won the second round of the primaries with the support of Trump, despite some very unstable moments.
Elevating a neophyte above a group of more established politicians who had spent years waiting for a Senate vacancy did not go over well with the party establishment. And there was even talk of Republican voters writing in Rep. Ralph Norman, who narrowly lost the primary to Graham.
It’s unclear how close the race is; we expect quality surveys. But Trump’s decision to impose Graham on his party was strange from the start. There seemed to be little reason for Trump to get involved.
And now the party must face the consequences of this.
What’s particularly striking about all of this is that Trump and his political operation have been through this before. They should know the downsides of appointing bad candidates as it has cost them dearly in previous years. They should know that Trump’s actions have made it harder to win Senate seats.
There is ample evidence that Trump’s antics in trying to overturn the 2020 election cost the party the runoff election held in Georgia on January 5, 2021. Turnout fell disproportionately in strongly conservative areas. Until then, the GOP had almost always gained ground in Georgia runoffs, but it actually lost ground.
And Trump even admitted in a later interview that GOP voters had been turned off because of alleged voter fraud (which he essentially made up out of whole cloth). He also said he didn’t urge them to trust Georgia election officials as much as he could have, because he was angry.
Trump did not have to account for it due to the events that occurred hours after the runoff on January 6, 2021. But it was striking to see him acknowledge so candidly that he may have played a role in his party’s loss of the Senate majority — even though he believes he did so for legitimate reasons.
Yet he still proceeded in 2022 to make a number of curious endorsement decisions. And now it’s happening again, to some extent.
The difference in 2026, of course, is that Trump will actually have to deal, as president, with whoever has the majority in the Senate.
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