The world must cut its carbon emissions by almost a fifth over the next four years, and by almost half within a decade, to avoid disastrously overshooting climate targets.
Although the “window has closed” for the maintenance temperature to rise to 1.5°C, in line with scientific advice, limiting “overshoot” of this target is still possible, according to the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
But countries are failing to translate their long-term emissions reduction targets into short-term actions, according to a report on the “emissions gap” between climate targets and policies.
Global carbon production appears to be at a standstill: emission levels in 2025 were broadly similar to those of the previous year. But UNEP analysts are reluctant to speak of a peak or plateau, given the great geopolitical uncertainties and the increased dependence on fossil fuels, despite the strong growth in renewable energies.
Reducing greenhouse gases by 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 would give a good chance of limiting the rise in temperatures to 1.7°C compared to pre-industrial levels. This would still allow events such as the record heatwaves of recent months to become frequent and common, but could help prevent them from getting significantly worse.
Governments have been warned for years that time is running out, said Inger Andersen, executive director of UNEP. “(We used to say) there is still an opportunity if we make this herculean effort (to stay within the 1.5°C limit),” she said. “It is now clear that this herculean effort was not made. We procrastinated, and now we say that window is closed.”
Nonetheless, she urged countries to maintain the 1.5°C target – the centerpiece of the Paris climate agreement. “We can make overtaking as brief and short as possible. It’s not time to throw in the towel and give up. It’s about how to find our way back as quickly and quickly as possible.”
Under Donald Trump, the United States – the world’s second-largest emitter after China – has withdrawn from the Paris climate accord and is threatening to reverse its long-standing trend of falling greenhouse gas emissions.
Bill Hare, chief executive of the think tank Climate Analytics, said: “All governments have a job to do, but in particular it is time for big fossil fuel producers like the US and Saudi Arabia, who produce 20-25% of the world’s fossil fuels, to stop playing politics and face the scientific reality. Right now they are staring at the fire, denying it exists and pouring more gasoline on it, while their own citizens increasingly face scorching heat, wildfires and other impacts.”
Other countries appear to have been affected by US intransigence – commitments made last year on greenhouse gases were noticeably weak, according to UNEP analysis. At the Cop30 climate summit in Brazil last November, governments were expected to make new commitments under the Paris agreement to reduce emissions. But the commitments made were far from strong enough.
Even if all these updated promises were kept, temperatures would still rise 2.6°C above pre-industrial levels, according to UNEP projections, putting life at risk in large areas of the globe. The policy has also failed to deliver on its promises: with current policies around the world, temperatures would rise to 2.8°C. Every five years, greenhouse gas emissions at current levels increase forecasts of global warming by 0.1°C. Scientists also fear that the greater the margin by which we exceed 1.5°C, the greater the likelihood of triggering tipping points in the climate system.
Mohamed Adow, director of the think tank Power Shift Africa, said: “The tragedy is that we have the solutions within our grasp. Solar and wind power are growing much faster than expected, and yet governments are still failing to move away from fossil fuels fast enough. Technology is moving at full speed while political leaders drag their feet.”
The shortfall in country commitments is supposed to be addressed under a mechanism in the Paris agreement called a “global stocktake,” an assessment of planned emissions targets for 2028. But that has also been cast into doubt: This week, the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change failed to set a timetable for releasing its latest report before the global stocktake, which would prevent governments from assessing their progress against the latest science.
Johan Rockström, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and one of the world’s leading climate scientists, said squabbles over the timing of IPCC reports should not block government action. “If all current national commitments are implemented, global emissions are expected to reach around 50 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year by 2035, while they are expected to be below 35 gigatons. The science is already clear. Closing this gap is a matter of policy action and not a lack of scientific evidence,” he said.
One way identified by Unep to quickly limit warming would be to reduce methane, a greenhouse gas 80 times more powerful than carbon dioxide.
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