With less than three weeks until the midterm elections, major voting groups, including independents, rural voters and even some Republicans, are increasingly disillusioned with Donald Trump’s economy, according to an exclusive Harris poll for the Guardian.
The majority of respondents are pessimistic about the economy: three-quarters of Americans say they are concerned about a recession, while 61% incorrectly believe that the United States is already experiencing one. By its usual definition, the United States is not currently experiencing a recession.
The poll shows growing weariness across the political spectrum with high prices.
Republicans, struggling to maintain control of Congress, are losing support from independent voters, who are expected to be the deciding factor in key elections. Nearly two-thirds (65%) of independents said the economic situation was worse, compared to 48% who said the same in September 2024, in the heat of the 2024 presidential election.
Even within Republican ranks, optimism has waned. In February 2025, just weeks after Trump’s inauguration, 39% of Republicans said the economy was improving. In February 2026, just before the United States launched attacks on Iran, this optimism reached 49%. In the latest poll, only 28% of Republicans said the economy was improving.
Voters say the high prices they see at gas stations and grocery stores will be a key factor when they cast their ballots in November. Two-thirds of respondents said gas prices and food prices were their most important issues heading into the election, followed by living expenses, health care costs and foreign affairs.
Recent inflation data showed annualized prices rose 3.7% in September, the highest figure before a midterm election, excluding the pandemic, since 1990.
Energy prices have been particularly high since the war in Iran, with the average price of gasoline at the pump more than $1.20 per gallon higher than a year ago. Drivers in California, which experiences the highest gas prices, pay an average of $6.20 per gallon, according to AAA.
Democrats in swing races have spent much of the past few months framing their midterm battles as a fight, in part, against a growing affordability crisis. James Talarico, the Democratic nominee in a closely watched U.S. Senate race in Texas, has a campaign ad showing him holding a paper bag filled with groceries. “Too many Texans feel like they’re drowning, because of the cost of groceries, gas, health care,” he says in the video.
“They say I can’t win because of my name,” Abdul El-Sayed, another Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in Michigan, said at a recent campaign event. “My name is not the reason your gas prices are skyrocketing. My name is not the reason you can’t afford to buy groceries.”
In the new poll, a large majority of Americans agreed there was an affordability crisis, including 96% of Republicans. But Americans remain divided over who has a solution.
Democrats (71%) were more likely than Republicans (59%) to say their own party had a solution.
Republicans were more likely (26%) to say neither party had a solution, compared to Democrats (17%).
Half of independents said neither party had a solution, while 14% sided with Democrats and 10% sided with Republicans.
Rural Americans, seen as a key base for Trump, were more likely to believe neither party has a solution (41%) compared to their counterparts in suburbs (35%) and urban areas (27%). Four in 10 rural Americans said they live in “survival mode,” where a surprise bill could sink them, compared with 35 percent of urban Americans and 27 percent of suburban Americans.
When asked what most affects gas prices today, 46% of rural Americans said it was the U.S. government, compared to 28% of Republicans who said the same. Republicans were the group least likely to blame the U.S. government, instead allocating blame to oil companies, the Iranian government and natural economic fluctuations.
This survey was conducted online in the United States by The Harris Poll from September 24 to October 3, 2026 among a nationally representative sample of 3,998 U.S adults.
Gn headline
