Tropical Storm Isaias formed in the southern Gulf and is expected to quickly strengthen into a powerful Category 2 hurricane and track toward the northern Gulf Coast later this week. Isaias is expected to approach the coast Friday and landfall is currently estimated late Friday or early Saturday between Biloxi, Mississippi and Panama City, Florida.
TAKEAWAYS
- Tropical Storm Isaias formed in the southern Gulf and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall along the northern Gulf Coast later this week.
- Florida declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm.
- Heavy rain is expected to begin Friday, with flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, storm surges and even tornadoes possible as the storm makes landfall.
- Uncertainty remains as to the exact location and force of Isaias’ landing.
Tropical Storm Isaias formed in the southern Gulf and is expected to quickly strengthen into a dangerous Category 2 hurricane and track toward the northern Gulf Coast later this week. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis already declared a state of emergency ahead of the storm.
Isaias is expected to approach the coast Friday, with landfall currently estimated to be late Friday or early Saturday between Biloxi, Mississippi and Panama City, Florida.
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Isaias strengthened from Tropical Depression Nine in the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday and sustained winds of 40 mph and moving east-northeast at 8 mph.
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The storm is both compact and moving in a favorable environment for development, which forecasters say will allow it to reach hurricane strength by Thursday.
According to the FOX Forecast Center, Isaias is expected to intensify quickly with winds ranging from 40 mph to 75 mph between Wednesday morning and 2 a.m. Thursday. Additionally, winds are expected to intensify and reach 180 km/h between 2 a.m. Thursday and 2 a.m. Friday.
(FOX Weather)
Isaias’ forecast cone shows it heading directly toward the northern Gulf Coast, with impacts centered on about 30 million people in Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi and the Florida Panhandle.
Heavy rain is expected to begin Friday, with flash flooding, damaging wind gusts, storm surges and even tornadoes possible as the storm makes landfall.
There is still some uncertainty as to the exact location and strength of Isaias when he landed.
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The Florida State Emergency Response Team is beginning to provide fuel, water and food, according to the governor’s emergency declaration.
Hurricane hunters are now conducting regular reconnaissance missions into Tropical Storm Isaias, to collect the latest forecast data.
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Today, I signed Executive Order 26-202, declaring a state of emergency in 25 counties in anticipation of Tropical Depression 9. This order ensures that communities have the time and resources needed to prepare for possible severe weather impacts to Florida’s Panhandle and Big Bend region. Floridians should have their plans in place, keep emergency supply kits well stocked, and follow @FLSERT for weather updates and preparedness information.
– Ron DeSantis (@GovRonDeSantis) October 7, 2026
Isaias is expected to remain in the southern Gulf for much of Thursday, bringing heavy rain to the Yucatán Peninsula, before making a sharp turn toward the northern Gulf Coast as it is gripped by a sharp decline in the jet stream.
The storm is expected to continue to strengthen and rapidly accelerate Friday morning, with heavy rain reaching parts of the Gulf Coast as early as Friday morning.
“Residents from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should closely monitor the latest forecast updates and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place,” the NHC said.
(FOX Weather)
The NHC also said it was increasingly likely that Isaias would become a significant hurricane when it reaches the coast.
FOX hurricane weather specialist Bryan Norcross noted that many factors are still in play that will determine exactly how strong the storm will be when it makes landfall and where the worst impacts will occur.
A strong belt of hostile winds in the atmosphere could weaken the storm as it approaches, depending on how far south these winds are at the time of landfall.
Norcross said most of the storm’s most impactful weather will likely be on the right side of the storm’s center, where there is still some variability.
(FOX Weather)
Meanwhile, NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a flash flood risk for Friday in parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, as well as southern parts of Tennessee, southwest North Carolina, and western South Carolina.
A Level 3 of 4 flash flood risk covers Mobile, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle west of Panama City. A Level 2 risk includes Atlanta and Montgomery, Alabama, and ultimately moves inland through Saturday to include the Carolinas and the Tennessee Valley.
“Rainfall estimates currently show 6 to 10 inches with localized higher amounts, which will lead to flash and urban flooding and possibly river flooding,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
(FOX Weather)
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a Level 2 out of 5 severe weather risk Saturday from southern Alabama and into the Florida Panhandle, particularly for the risk of tornadoes as the storm’s outer bands make landfall.
Gulf water temperatures are currently at their hottest levels on save dating from 1982. Warm waters are conducive to tropical development.
September ended without hurricane for the first time in 32 years, although it is the climatological peak of the season.
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The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
This story is developing. Check back frequently for updates.
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