Trump escalates chaos in October barrage

President Trump continues his insatiable appetite for controversy in the most unforgiving period of the election calendar, fortified by a decade of political survival.

• “In the end, everything is going to work out. You know why? It always does,” Trump told reporters this week.

Why it’s important: Gone are the days of a single “October Surprise,” engulfed by a familiar barrage of scandals, provocations and broken conventions that persisted in the final weeks of Trump’s final midterm election.

The big picture: Axios documented Trump’s steady demolition of presidential norms during his second term, from the transition through his first 100 days and first year in office.

• This year, even the threat of losing Congress — and with it, much of his ability to pursue his agenda over the next two years — has done little to moderate the pace or boldness of Trump’s presidency.

Consider only the first 15 days of October, and the succession of controversies which could have shaken the foundations of a more conventional presidency:

• Raid against a political opponent: Federal agents searched the home of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) and seized her phone as part of an investigation aimed at stripping the sitting congresswoman of her U.S. citizenship and ultimately deporting her, the Wall Street Journal reports. Omar denies any wrongdoing.

• Calls to shoot the fugitives: Trump told a campaign rally in Arizona that officials who leak sensitive military information “should be taken down,” invoking an earlier era when he claimed the government routinely executed leakers.
• Concessions to Vladimir Putin: Trump eased sanctions⁠on Russian diesel, demanded the ouster of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and pressured kyiv to stop attacking Russian refineries. Late Friday night, Trump lifted sweeping new sanctions against Russia⁠under bipartisan legislation named for the late Sen. Lindsey Graham and which he signed last month.
• Taxpayer-funded political ads: Trump spent millions of taxpayer dollars on campaign ads promoting his presidency, until a federal judge ordered them stopped. He then ordered his super PAC MAGA Inc. to fund future spots, filing a separate complaint alleging violations of campaign finance law.
• Federal crackdown on the press: The Justice Department launched an antitrust investigation into ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News and NBC after the networks suspended coverage from the White House to protest Trump’s ban on three news organizations.
• Election promise of $5,000: Trump has pledged to send every adult American a $5,000 check if Republicans maintain control of Congress, explicitly tying more than $1 trillion in proposed federal payments to the outcome of the midterm elections.
• Mid-term DOJ intervention: With voting already underway, the Justice Department sued California to block 20,000 ballots from suspected non-citizens – the latest escalation in a broad campaign to affect US elections.
• Macabre messages on social networks: Trump posted footage of a man fatally mauled by a tiger, followed by a montage of animal attacks set to upbeat music and an AI-generated video of himself wrestling and hugging a tiger.
• $333 million in ballroom donations: Secret documents obtained by The Washington Post revealed that corporations and billionaires bankrolled Trump’s White House ballroom, including donors who benefited from government contracts, regulatory decisions and a presidential pardon involving a family member.

The other side: Three episodes in October forced Trump into rare retreats – largely due to others.

• A televised execution: Trump abandoned plans to livestream the execution by firing squad of a convicted mass murderer after bipartisan outrage.
• The fall of an ambassador: Trump forced Kimberly Guilfoyle – who was engaged to his son for four years until 2024 — to resign as ambassador to Greece after learning she had solicited $100,000 from a political donor to cover her personal credit card bills. Guilfoyle denies any wrongdoing.
• A five-day press officer: Trump ousted Katie Zacharia after scrutiny of her legal credentials and a widely criticized debut. Axios reports that Trump was surprised to learn that Zacharia — whom he had introduced as a lawyer — had never passed the bar exam.

What they say: Far from viewing October as a month of political peril, the administration is celebrating it as a continuation of Trump’s record.

• “Since the first day of his administration, President Trump has boldly and consistently delivered on his campaign promises to protect national security, make America great, secure the borders, crack down on crime, ensure free and fair elections, and make life more affordable,” White House spokeswoman Allison Schuster told Axios.
• “October is shaping up to be another incredible month,” she added.

Between the lines: Trump spent a decade defying political gravity. But the economic strength that helped protect him during his first term has given way to a deepening crisis of public confidence.

• A Fox News poll released Wednesday puts Trump’s approval at 36% — his lowest level in either presidency — including a devastating 22% for his handling of inflation.
• In the same Fox poll, government corruption narrowly surpassed inflation as the topic of most concern among voters.

The bottom line: Trump is treating a moment of peak political vulnerability as if nothing had happened, betting that the instincts that carried him this far will not fail him from now on.