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When voters rate the economy and the president negatively just weeks before Election Day, the ruling party is vulnerable, and that’s certainly the case in the latest Fox News survey.
The economic landscape is bleak. Six in ten voters say the cost of living is their top economic concern, eclipsing government spending (15%), employment and income inequality (both 7%), tariffs (6%) and taxes (5%).
The majority rate the economy negatively (74%) and expect it to deteriorate over the next year (53%), while two-thirds are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country (66%). Few, 18%, say that their family is doing better than two years ago. Self-employed people say their situation is worse (52%) and think the economy will get worse (70%).
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A majority of voters, 55%, believe that inflation is “not at all” under control. That’s an increase from a low of 45% earlier this year, and that includes 30% of Republicans.
President Donald Trump’s lowest rating on jobs is on inflation: 22% approve, a new low. Last summer, 36% approved. Four years ago, before the 2022 midterm elections, 29% approved of former President Joe Biden’s performance on inflation.
Disapproval of Trump’s work reached 77% on inflation, 70% on the economy, 69% on tariffs and 64% on foreign policy. A smaller proportion, but still a majority, disapprove of his handling of immigration (56% disapprove), while border security is the only issue close to positive (50% approve, 50% disapprove).
Trump’s overall job approval rating is 36 percent, his lowest ever in a Fox News survey for either term. It has remained at 39% since May. This drop is mainly due to a decrease among voters under 45, those with an annual household income of less than $50,000, non-white voters and those without a college degree.
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Approval stands at 76% among Republicans. This represents a drop of 3 points since last month, 12 points since September 2025 and 16 points since the start of his second term (March 2025).
As in most midterm elections, voters are inclined to punish the party in power: 7 in 10 say they will vote to send a message to Trump, and nearly twice as many express opposition (47%) as support (25%).
If the election were held today, 54% of voters say they would support the Democratic candidate in their district and 45% would support the Republican. That’s outside the margin of error and represents a wider lead than last month, when Democrats were ahead 51 to 44 percent. The race is tightening among those who say they are certain to vote, with the Democratic candidate leading 52% to 46%.
The survey finds that about the same number of people identify as Democrats (43%) and Republicans (41%), and both parties feel equally confident about voting (62% and 64% respectively), while more Democrats (61%) than Republicans (52%) say they are extremely interested in the election.
Party loyalty is strong: 98% of Democrats support their party’s candidate, and 94% of Republicans support theirs. Independents favor Democrats by 26 points.
The Democratic candidate is the choice among college-educated whites, those under 45, women, union households and Hispanics. The Republican leads among whites without a college degree (white men without a degree in particular), those 65 and older, voters who regularly attend religious services, veterans and white evangelical Christians.
While 43% of Hispanic voters supported Trump in the 2024 election, only 31% prefer the Republican candidate this year.
“When the country is this divided along partisan lines, small differences in defection and turnout rates can make a big difference,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who is on the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Republicans have time to address these apparent gaps, but it’s getting late.”
Meanwhile, Democrats are leading on 10 of 13 issues.
Voters’ top five concerns are government corruption (60% extremely concerned), inflation (58%), gas prices (50%), government leadership (49%) and health care (48%). And a double-digit share trust Democrats more than Republicans to handle each of these issues.
The Republicans maintain the advantage on crime (by 10 points) and border security (R+8), while opinions are very divided on immigration (R+3). Democrats are considered better on health care (D+22), inflation (D+16), gas prices (D+12), voting rights (D+12), election integrity (D+12), government leadership (D+11), what is taught in public schools (D+11), artificial intelligence (D+10), government corruption (D+10), and foreign policy (D+9).
Republicans lost ground on key issues compared to four years ago, when more voters trusted them by 21 points on border security, 13 points on inflation and 9 points on foreign policy.
Other issues voters are extremely concerned about are the war in Iran (42%), immigration (35%), crime (34%), voter suppression (32%), AI technology (32%), what is taught in public schools (29%), voter fraud (28%), and border security (25%).
Although government corruption and inflation are the top two concerns of both parties, far more Democrats (72% and 70%) than Republicans (47% and 49%) are extremely worried about them.
The question of how to explain the Democrats’ advantage is not a problem at all. By a 14-point margin, more voters think Democrats will do a better job “fighting for people like you.” Majorities of white voters with a college degree (53%), men (52%), women (60%), and nonwhite voters (77%) believe Democrats will fight for them. Whites without a college degree are distributed between 49 and 49 percent.
Despite their issue advantage, only 35% say Democrats have a clear plan to solve the country’s problems, and 33% say the same about Republicans. This wipes out the Republican advantage compared to July 2025, when 43% of respondents said Republicans had a clear plan, compared to 33% for Democrats.
There is deep dissatisfaction with lawmakers: 15 percent approve of Congress, while 84 percent disapprove. Remarkably, this figure is higher than the low of 9% approval recorded in October 2013.
Both parties are viewed negatively. The Democratic Party is underwater by 16 points (42% favorable, 58% unfavorable), while the GOP’s ratings are net negative by 23 points (38% favorable, 61% unfavorable).
Yet favorable ratings do not translate directly into vote choices. A third of those who support the Democratic candidate (31%) dislike the party, while 23% of those who support the Republican dislike the GOP. Among the 26% who dislike both parties (double haters), Democrats come out on top between 62% and 36%.
Here’s how polarized the parties are: Only 16% of Republicans say Democrats love America and want what’s best for the United States, and even fewer Democrats, 6%, think Republicans do.
Compared to four years ago, the number of voters saying Democrats want what’s best for the country increased by four points, while fewer said Republicans love the country by 6 points.
Poll-rotten
Fifty-one percent of voters have a favorable view of capitalism, compared to 32% for socialism. Compared to last year, positive evaluations of capitalism decreased by 2 points while they increased by 5 points for socialism. Eight in ten people with a positive view of socialism support the Democratic candidate, while six in ten people with a positive view of capitalism support the Republican candidate.
Voters who plan to vote in advance favor the Democratic candidate (by 19 points), as do postal voters (D+33), while the choice of candidate is shared between those who vote in person (in advance or on election day).
Six in ten people oppose U.S. military action against Iran and support Democrats by 56 points.
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A new high of 46 percent think the United States supports Israel too much, and those voters favor the Democratic candidate by 42 points, while the 4 in 10 who think U.S. support for Israel is about right choose the Republican by 27 points.
Nearly 6 in 10 people have a negative opinion of artificial intelligence technology and support the Democratic candidate by 27 points.
Conducted October 9-12, 2026, led by Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News investigation includes interviews with a sample of 1,202 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (114) and cell phones (786) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (302). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling errors, the wording and order of questions can influence the results. Weights are typically applied to age, race, education, and region variables to ensure that demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing target weights include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data.
Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.
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