President Donald Trump promised voters angry about inflation that he would cut the price of gasoline below $2 a gallon in his first year in office.
“My plan will cut energy prices in half, or more, within 12 months of taking office,” Trump said in a speech to the New York Economic Club in September 2024, during his re-election campaign.
“Energy was the original cause of our problem,” he told voters. “Energy is going to bring us back. That means we’re going to go down and gasoline will be below $2 a gallon.”
But when voters go to the polls on Tuesday, energy prices will remain a headache. Gasoline and diesel prices are expected to be the highest ever on an election day, according to Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
“Prices have never been higher at this end of the year,” De Haan said.
Gas prices Friday stood at a national average of $4.20 per gallon, nearly 40% higher than the same time last year. The price of diesel, essential for transportation and agriculture, has jumped about 70% over the past year, to $6.32 a gallon.
During the 2022 U.S. midterm elections, the year Russia invaded Ukraine and sparked an energy crisis, retail gas prices stood at $3.80, according to AAA data.
Own goal
“Trump got in his own way,” De Haan said. “In December, we predicted that 2026 would be the cheapest year for gas since 2020. It took no effort. And obviously, it didn’t turn out that way.”
Fuel prices have soared since Trump decided to attack Iran in a joint attack with Israel on February 28. Tehran responded with a wave of strikes against oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz, severely curtailing oil flows through the vital maritime route.
Trump told voters at a rally in Michigan last Sunday that rising fuel prices were a “small price to pay” to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
“Once this conflict ends, gas prices will fall drastically and the Iranian terrorist regime will no longer have nuclear weapons,” White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement.
The White House said gasoline prices, when adjusted for inflation, were higher in previous election days.
Exports through Hormuz have rebounded since the summer, with the U.S. military helping ships cross the strait. But disruptions in the Middle East have been worsened by attacks by Houthi rebels on Saudi refineries and by Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. Trump had promised to end this war in the first week of his second term, but the conflict is stuck in an intractable stalemate.
“Frankly, diesel is the crux here because it’s critical to economic growth,” ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told CNBC on Friday, after the nation’s largest oil company posted huge profits thanks to the disruption.
Airlines have raised fares to cover the high costs of jet fuel, their biggest expense other than labor, hurting the fight against inflation.
Political pressure
Trump has faced political pressure from Republicans to take action on fuel prices before Tuesday’s election. The cost of diesel hurts large agricultural states like Iowa, which overwhelmingly supported Trump in his presidential campaigns. The Senate race in the Hawkeye State has become competitive.
Trump briefly considered a ban on diesel exports as Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) pushed to help the state’s farmers. The president decided not to do so because it could have also increased gas prices.
Instead, Trump issued an executive order allowing truckers to use tax-exempt off-road diesel on U.S. highways, and announced an $8 billion relief package for farmers hit by high fuel prices.
Trump then struck a controversial deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for Moscow to export about 6 million barrels of diesel to the global market through November.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and even some Republican senators have criticized the deal, calling it payback for Russian aggression. Energy sector analysts say the diesel volumes planned in the Russia deal are low relative to global demand and will not have a significant impact on prices.
More recently, crude oil prices have increased in the run-up to the election. Trump said he would not resume strikes against Iran before the midterms. But the market is pricing in the risk of a new series of fights after the end of voting on Tuesday. International Brent crude oil prices rose more than 13% in October and the price of U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 15%.
“If there is an escalation, that obviously could put upward pressure on prices right before Thanksgiving,” De Haan said, “which is also the time when Americans have very ingrained traditions of driving to visit friends and family.”
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