President Donald Trump remains deeply unpopular among urban voters, but his net approval rating in the Echelon Insights poll improved 20 points between July and October.
The move could influence the Nov. 3 midterm elections, as Democrats depend on leading margins in big cities to run competitive statewide elections.
Even modest changes in support or turnout around Atlanta and Detroit could affect Georgia’s gubernatorial race and Michigan’s open Senate race.
Republican political scientists and strategists said News week that crime, heavy Republican Party advertising or changes within Trump’s urban coalition could be contributing, although they cautioned that volatility in a small polling subgroup could explain some of the movement.
Why it matters
Midterm elections typically cost the president’s party seats, but the urban numbers raise another question: Can Democrats produce the margins they need from their strongest territory.
What the polls show
Trump’s monthly city numbers in the Echelon Insights series were:
- July: 23 percent approval and 76 percent disapproval, net negative 53.
- August: 28 percent approval and 71 percent disapproval, net negative 43.
- September: 26 percent approval and 72 percent disapproval, net negative 46.
- October: 33 percent approval and 66 percent disapproval, net negative 33.
The 20-point net improvement consists of a 10-point increase in approval and a 10-point decrease in disapproval, rather than a 20-point increase in support.
Trump gained ground in August, lost three net points in September, then recorded his best urban result of the four surveys in October.
“The direction of four surveys is worth studying, but the size and weighting of the urban sample is crucial,” said Daniel Schatz, a political scientist and former visiting scholar at Harvard University, Stanford University and Georgetown University.
“A national survey can have a respectable overall sample while containing relatively few urban respondents. »
The October Echelon Insights Verified Voter Omnibus surveyed 1,010 likely voters Oct. 15-19 and found Trump at 39% approval to 60% disapproval nationally.
Echelon Insights also reported a five-point Democratic lead on the generic ballot and identified cost of living as the dominant voting concern.
Its overall margin of sampling error was plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
The published figures do not provide a separate margin of error for the urban subgroup, making this result less precise than the national figure.
What could move urban opinion
Costas Panagopoulos, a distinguished professor of political science at Northeastern University, said Trump was starting from such a low position in cities that there was considerable room for recovery.
“One of the things we can hope for in cities is improvement in crime,” Panagopoulos said. News weekwhile cautioning that federal policy alone may not deserve credit for local conditions.
John Thomas, a veteran Republican Party strategist, pollster and chief executive of Nestpoint, argued that extensive advertising by MAGA Inc. and affiliated groups emphasized economic prosperity, public safety, border respect and energy production.
“This message shows early interest among some Hispanic voters and young urban independents who are more open to arguments about crime and immigration,” Thomas said.
Brittany Martinez, a Republican strategist and former aide to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, also suspected the movement of minority voters was contributing.
“Moving from deeply unpopular to less unpopular could be of marginal importance if this improvement holds and translates into Republican votes,” Martinez said. News week.
Schatz urged caution, emphasizing that urban voters cannot be used as a substitute for racial or ethnic polls.
Establishing cause would require racial breakdowns within the urban sample, ideally pooled across multiple surveys.
“The overall movement could reflect shifts among white urban voters, shifts within multiple demographic groups, or differences in responses to the monthly survey,” he said.
He said the numbers suggested “an erosion of Democratic dominance, rather than an urban embrace of Trump.”
The broader polling picture complicates this explanation.
The Pew Research Center found that Democratic House candidates trailed Republicans 51 to 24 percent among Hispanic registered voters and 70 to 7 percent among black voters, in a survey conducted from September 28 to October 4.
Another 23 percent of black voters and 25 percent of Hispanic voters supported another candidate or remained unsure.
The survey of 5,062 U.S. adults was conducted online and by telephone and had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 1.6 percentage points for the full sample.
White House points finger at Trump coalition
White House spokesman Davis Ingle said Trump had built “one of the strongest coalitions in political history with the MAGA movement” and remained the Republican Party’s “unequivocal leader, greatest messenger and unrivaled motivator.”
Ingle credited the administration with tax cuts, lower prescription drug costs, tighter border control, increased energy production and private sector job growth.
“The choice has never been clearer: double down on President Trump’s winning, common-sense agenda or the Democrats’ extreme liberal policies and obstruction,” Ingle said. News week in an emailed statement.
Why Atlanta and Detroit Matter
Schatz said Republicans could benefit from a reduction in Democratic margins without being close to winning either city.
“In a close statewide contest, narrowing a wide Democratic margin can be decisive,” he said. “The electoral value lies in reducing the Democratic vote surplus that Republican candidates must overcome elsewhere.”
Martinez acknowledged that modest gains could matter around Atlanta or Detroit, but said she would like to see the movement hold up in multiple polls.
A national urban score cannot prove that any metro area is changing.
Their electorates differ, while statewide results also depend on suburbs, rural turnout and the candidates themselves.
Jason Cabel Roe, a Michigan-based Republican strategist and principal at Roe Strategic LLC, said Republicans are making more deliberate efforts in black communities.
He cited three Michigan Republicans as examples: party veteran Mike Rogers, who is facing Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, an epidemiologist, for an open Senate seat; John James, the party’s candidate for governor, who is running against Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson; and incumbent Rep. Tom Barrett.
Barrett is seeking re-election in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District against Democrat William Lawrence, co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, and Green Party candidate Shane Dedrick.
Rogers opened an office on Detroit’s Avenue of Fashion, a notable investment for a Republican campaign in the heavily Democratic city, as both parties pursue undecided residents and work to increase turnout.
Democrats have always counted on winning Detroit with more than 85 percent of the vote, according to Roe.
“If turnout is low and a small number of voters give Republicans an opportunity, that could be why Republicans win,” he said.
Roe likened the risk to Michigan’s 1990 gubernatorial election, when Republican John Engler unexpectedly defeated Democratic Gov. Jim Blanchard.
He said Detroit Mayor Coleman Young’s refusal to put the full force of his political organization behind Blanchard was widely seen as a factor in the outcome.
In Georgia, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democratic candidate, is running against Republican Health Care Director Rick Jackson.
An average of 270 to win in five recent polls puts Jackson at 48.4 percent and Bottoms at 46.6 percent, underscoring why metropolitan margins could be significant.
A change in participation or political realignment
Lower Democratic turnout could prove just as significant if voters shift to the Republicans.
“A voter who disapproves of Trump but stays home offers Democrats no electoral protection,” Schatz said, adding that approval numbers alone cannot establish an enthusiasm gap.
The October result therefore establishes a clearer point: Trump’s deficit among urban voters has shrunk over a series of polls.
Whether this reflects lasting policy change will depend on subsequent investigations and, ultimately, the results.
Newsweek reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek’s editor-in-chief for this story: Edward Pearcey.
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