Vance must convince MAGA voters were disappointed that he understood their sense of betrayal, even though he remains a central figure in the administration responsible for the Iran war.
- His maneuvers will take place under the gaze of a president who does not seem particularly eager to leave the stage – and who does not hesitate to rein in those on his team who overstep.
- “Today, JD Vance became president — or acted like he wanted to become president,” a source close to the administration told Axios.
Zoom: Vance argued that defections from the Trump 2024 coalition — not lack of turnout — led to the collapse of the Republican Party in Tuesday’s midterms. Citing a poll of disaffected Trump voters, he identified four demands:
- “End the war.”
- “Focus on cost of living/inflation.”
- “Put America first.”
- “Let’s change our relationship with Israel.”
These are the four hottest topics among top MAGA podcasters and activists. So Vance aligns with these leaders on issues where MAGA anger against Trump rages.
What they say: “If you want to argue that (the war) was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next six years was worth it, then do it,” Vance wrote. “Say it was worth paying for. Agree or disagree, at least it’s honest.”
- Trump accepted that challenge Wednesday, acknowledging that the war had hurt Republicans but insisting it was worth the cost. “If I had to do it again, I would do it,” he told reporters. “When it comes to this war, I wouldn’t have done anything differently.”
- As for Vance’s message, Trump said: “I know how he feels about it. I think it was good. I thought it was good.”
Behind the scenes: Vance’s comment surprised some in the White House. But inside sources said the vice president worked with senior administration officials in the role.
- “These are his words and his thoughts,” a close source said. “He leads.”
- Another said: “It pains me to say this, but Tuesday showed the emperor was undressed, and Vance knew he just had to state the obvious. There will be plenty of other Republicans who will put a lot more distance between themselves and the president.”
- A Republican consultant representing a potential rival in the 2028 presidential race delivered a more blunt assessment: “The vice president needed to show he’s not a dead man walking out there.” »
Zoom out: Trump’s second term was riven by a bitter ideological feud between MAGA’s anti-interventionist wing and the pro-Israel hawks who championed the Iran war.
- Vance privately questioned the war’s goals and duration, then publicly defended the campaign and led peace negotiations with Iran. His autopsy now places him squarely in the anti-interventionist camp.
- That could help him fend off potential 2028 challengers who are also skeptical of foreign intervention.
- It also gives Vance an opening against more hawkish Republicans, particularly Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. If Cruz runs in 2028, as many expect, and says it’s time for the party to move away from the Trump administration’s numbers, Vance could try to argue that Cruz was on the wrong side of the issue that helped cost Republicans the midterm elections.
Mid-term results triggered a new wave of recriminations, with MAGA influencers accusing Laura Loomer, Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin and other hawks of betraying Trump’s America First promises.
- These influencers, in turn, have typically accused their critics of anti-Semitism or disloyalty to Trump.
In figures: A Republican political group that studied 12 key congressional elections in January found that a plurality of voters blamed Democrats for inflation.
- In October, the numbers reversed and Trump and the Republicans took the blame.
- “What changed? The war in Iran. The cost of gas. It’s that simple,” said a Republican consultant who provided the poll to Axios.
The plot: Donald Trump Jr., an influential voice in the grassroots MAGA movement, lent his support to Vance’s autopsy, writing on X: “Every word of this is 💯 💯 💯.”
Between the lines: For all his outspokenness, Vance’s autopsy is surprisingly selective.
- It blames the war in Iran and acknowledges voters’ anger over inflation, but makes no mention of Trump’s tariffs, corruption controversies or fixation on White House construction projects as Republicans’ political fortunes plummeted.
- The omissions are telling: Vance offers a diagnosis of defeat that validates the “America First” wing of MAGA, while shielding Trump from a broader reckoning with his presidency.
What to watch: Trump has not yet named Vance as his successor, and the Republican collapse is already revealing the contours of a potential succession struggle.
- Asked Wednesday whether he had discussed a presidential run with Vance, Trump said the two talked about “a lot of things,” before adding, “Maybe he won’t run. I don’t know who’s going to run.”
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) a primary rival to Trump in 2024, took advantage of his state’s narrow Republican victories — a rare GOP bright spot amid Tuesday’s rout — to offer his own diagnosis of the party’s failures.
- “This is close to an extinction-level event for Republicans,” DeSantis said at a news conference.
- “In January, when everyone in office leaves, whether they are term-limited or elected from the 10 largest states in this union, only one state will have Republican control of its state: the state of Florida.”
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