WASHINGTON (AP) — Voter turnout is soaring compared to the last midterm elections in many states that are expected decide on control of the U.S. Senate, according to an Associated Press analysis of early voting two weeks before Election Day.
In Texas, early voting is up 74% compared to 2022. In Kansas, it has more than doubled. Maine, North Carolina and Ohio also saw more than 30% increases in in-person and mail-in early voting compared to the same point in 2022.
Democrats are trying to flip Republican Senate seats in each of these states. In most of them, Republicans represent a smaller share of advance voters than four years ago.
The AP data, which runs through Tuesday, provides insight into potential voter enthusiasm — and areas where it might be lacking — after early voting opened in most states during a midterm cycle that has moved in often unpredictable ways.
Dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s tariffs, persistence high cost of livingand high gasoline and diesel prices caused by the war in Iran have generated political backlash against the Republicans in places that the party did not anticipate having to defend this year.
Nationwide, more than 13 million mail-in and in-person votes cast were sunk, compared to 9 million at the same time in 2022. The increase also reflects a few additional states that have expanded their early voting opportunities and those that have made more of their data available since the last midterms.
Midterm elections generally favor the departure of the party from power in Washington. With Republicans in control of both houses of Congress and the White House, the environment is markedly different than in 2022, when Democrats were in charge.
Democrats energized by competitive Senate races in Republican-leaning states
Senate Democrats were should face a tough map this cycle, defending a number of battlegrounds with only a few opportunities to flip seats in areas won by Trump by single digits in 2024. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the House.
But with gasoline and diesel prices up significantly from last year and Trump increasingly unpopular among voters, Democrats are heading to traditionally Republican states, hoping to win there for the first time in decades.
Earlier this month, Republicans reduced his expenses in a once-competitive North Carolina Senate race and poured nearly $12 million into Kansas, a state Trump won by 16 percentage points in 2024, to support Republican Sen. Roger Marshall against Democrat Adam Hamilton.
Trump held a rally Monday in the state, where more than 55,000 people have voted so far, more than double the 27,000 people who had voted at this point in the cycle in 2022. That year, Democratic Governor Laura Kelly He was narrowly re-elected while Republican Senator Jerry Moran won by a landslide.
Specific races appear to attract voters to the polls
Texas also saw a massive increase, even though in-person early voting just began Monday. The number of ballots cast two weeks after Election Day reached nearly 1 million, up from about 550,000 at the same point in 2022. Texas data does not show ballots returned by party registration.
The surge comes as Democrats James Talarico and Republican State Attorney General Ken Paxton competing for the Senate seat currently held by Republican Sen. John Cornyn, whom Paxton defeated in a primary runoff with Trump’s endorsement.
Democrats targeted Paxton, who benefits from millions of dollars in outside spending, over corruption allegations and his impeachment by the Texas Legislature, although he was later acquitted.
Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat to win a statewide victory in more than three decades. Incumbent GOP Gov. Greg Abbott is also in an election fight against Democratic state lawmaker Gina Hinojosa.
Ohio has some top-notch racing this year, with close competition for US SenateHouse and governor. Total spending on the Ohio Senate race will reach nearly $500 million, according to AdImpact.
This increased attention is reflected in voting, with 156,000 more ballots cast so far than in 2022, an increase of 30%. Some election laws have changed in Ohio since 2022, including the state eliminating its grace period for receiving mail-in ballots, a change that requires voters to return those ballots sooner.
In Maine, where five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking re-election against Democrat Troy Jackson, votes cast were up 39% this year compared to two weeks before the 2022 midterm elections.
Early voting has not increased in all competitive states
In Michigan and Georgia, two states where Democrats are defending their Senate seats, early vote totals are high, but similar to four years ago.
Both states broke their voting records in the 2022 midterms, with reproductive rights on the ballot in Michigan and a highly competitive U.S. Senate race in Georgia that year.
Iowa, which voted for Trump three times during presidential years, has contests for governor, Senate and in three of its four House districts. Early voting two weeks before the election is down about 6% compared to the same period four years ago.
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Ryan Dubicki and Michaela Herbst of the Associated Press Election Services team contributed to this report from Washington.
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