More than seven months after the start of the U.S.-Iran war, sharp rises in fuel prices are making car and plane travel more expensive and raising the cost of some goods, prolonging the strain on American households as the midterm elections approach.
Motorists and airline passengers have suffered the most obvious consequences, with fighting disrupting oil shipments in the Middle East. Some companies have increased shipping costs or prices on certain products. Yet the higher cost of manufacturing and transporting goods has not translated into widespread price increases in stores.
However, buyers may not be spared forever. Many companies have absorbed at least part of their higher production and transportation costs. A rise in wholesale prices in September suggests some companies could potentially charge more if fuel prices remain high.
Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi estimated this week that the war cost the average American household the equivalent of nearly $2,000, including $1,100 in higher energy prices, $540 in higher interest rates and $360 in military spending. The energy share increases by $50 per week at current fuel prices, Zandi said.
Here’s a look at how prices have changed since the start of the war and which goods and services could be most likely to rise in the coming months:
Refilling fuel tanks costs significantly more
BEFORE THE WAR: Regular gasoline averaged $2.98 a gallon nationwide and diesel $3.76 nearly eight months ago, according to AAA. Gasoline peaked at $4.56 in May, below its 2022 record, while diesel hit a record $6.53 in September.
WHAT HIT CONSUMERS: As of Friday, the national average stood at $4.33 a gallon for gasoline, 45 percent above its prewar level, and was up 68 percent for diesel at $6.33, AAA reported. Gasoline generally costs less in the fall, and October 1st is when a gallon of regular gas costs more than $4 on average, he says.
The high price of diesel is less obvious to most U.S. residents, but it contributes to overall inflation by increasing the cost of transporting goods.
WHAT COULD COME NEXT: Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains dangerous and limited, prolonging uncertainty over oil supplies and fuel prices. The Energy Information Administration said this month that it expects winter heating costs to be 21% higher for the roughly 3% of households that rely on heating oil, most in the Northeast, assuming mild weather.
Higher airfares are also hard to escape
BEFORE THE WAR: A barrel of jet fuel cost an average of $99 worldwide before the war, doubled to $209 in April and rose again to nearly $195 in September after a decline in the spring, according to the International Air Transport Association.
WHAT HIT CONSUMERS: Airlines raised ticket prices and fees, cut schedules and abandoned plans to add flights. Airfares cost about 22% more in September than a year earlier, according to the Consumer Price Index. Average domestic airfares rose from $405 at the end of 2025 to $445 between April and June of this year, excluding optional fees, according to the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
WHAT COULD COME NEXT: Volatility in fuel prices makes it harder for airlines to plan and could discourage them from lowering fares even when fuel prices start to fall, analysts said. United Airlines cut some flights in December and warned of possible further cuts in 2027. Fewer available seats could mean less pressure to keep ticket prices low.
The fare hike helped cover a substantial portion of higher fuel costs for domestic airlines, but not enough to prevent a squeeze on their profits in the third quarter, according to consensus estimates.
Any increase in food prices hurts Americans after several years of food inflation
BEFORE THE WAR: The U.S. Department of Agriculture initially expected food prices to rise 1.7 percent this year, below the historical annual average. The USDA now expects a still relatively modest increase of 2.4%.
WHAT HIT CONSUMERS: Food prices can be volatile, and it’s unclear how much of this year’s expected increase is due to the war and how much is due to other factors, including tariffs, unfavorable weather and rising labor costs.
Chris Barrett, an economics professor at Cornell University, said he was surprised that food prices had not risen more quickly given the rising costs of diesel, fertilizer and refrigeration. The USDA revised upward its 2026 fertilizer cost estimates for major crops by 9 to 13 percent and its estimates for fuel, lubricants and electricity by 33 to 41 percent.
Barrett suspects retailers are absorbing some increases to avoid alienating customers who are fed up after several years of food inflation. In September, food prices were about 22% higher than five years ago.
WHAT COULD COME NEXT: Experts have warned that frequently restocked fresh produce and other perishables could respond quickly to rising transportation and refrigeration costs. Barrett sees “very little prospect” of a significant reduction in fuel prices that could ease pressure on farmers and truckers.
The intensification of the El Niño weather phenomenon could damage crops due to drought, heat or flooding, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has warned. That could push up commodity prices, although ample stocks and good harvests elsewhere could limit the impact on groceries.
The Rubber Meets the Road When It Comes to Shoe Prices
BEFORE THE WAR: Nearly all shoes sold in the United States are imported, and about 70 percent of the materials in a synthetic shoe are of petrochemical origin, according to Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America. The industry’s trade group opposed the Trump administration’s tariffs last year.
WHAT HIT CONSUMERS: Shoe prices were 3.4% higher in September compared to 12 months earlier, according to the Consumer Price Index. Men’s shoes increased the most, by 4.5%.
WHAT COULD COME NEXT: Although import costs are down from a year ago, the footwear trade group said oil prices, tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty are expected to keep shoe retail prices rising through 2027.
“Shoe manufacturers work hard to keep shoes affordable, but there is a limit to the additional costs companies can absorb before these pressures reach consumers,” said Matt Priest, president and CEO of the FDRA.
Transportation costs add up throughout product supply chains
BEFORE THE WAR: The cost of transporting goods and delivering packages was already increasing and did not depend solely on fuel.
WHAT HAS REACHED CONSUMERS: It’s not clear. Producer price data for September showed that transportation and storage of goods sold to businesses as inputs cost 10.2% more than a year earlier. Prices for road and sea freight services each increased by 19.3%. The indices measure what transport providers charge, but do not show how much of the increase is attributable to retail prices.
Consumers felt the higher costs when sending packages more directly. The U.S. Postal Service raised base prices 8% in April for Priority Mail Express, Priority Mail, Ground Advantage and Parcel Select, citing rising shipping costs. UPS, FedEx and DHL also impose fuel surcharges on many shipments.
WHAT COULD COME NEXT: Transportation costs could remain high during the holiday season, even if oil prices fall. Third-party provider AFS, logistics and financial services company TD Cowen, projects record package costs this quarter and the highest truckload rates since early 2022.
“We expect fuel to drive increased transportation costs for the foreseeable future,” said Andy Dyer, CEO of AFS Logistics.
Although UPS and FedEx surcharges could decline if diesel and jet fuel prices fall, changes to carrier surcharge plans, holiday fees and restricted trucking capacity could keep total shipping bills high, AFS said.
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