As many as 10 million people in Texas could vote in this year’s midterm elections, according to the organization VoteHub, which works with the CBS News Data Desk.
That represents nearly 90% of the nearly 11.4 million people who voted in the 2024 election. presidential election. Zachary Donnini, Head of Data Science at VoteHubtold CBS News Texas that the Senate race between Democrats James Talarico and republican Ken Paxton attracts a lot of attention not only in Texas.
He said it was “a race that frankly captivates the nation. If we look nationally at which races have the most media interest, this idea that Democrats could win Texas dominates media coverage of the campaign.” midterm exams 2026“.
As of Friday evening, Donnini said that in the first four days of early voting, nearly 2.9 million ballots had been cast in the Lone Star State. He said he thinks about 67% of Texas voters will vote in early voting this year. Asked about turnout in the four large North Texas counties, Donnini said turnout in the first three days was high. Dallas County.
“Dallas, the first day, I believe, had a larger turnout than 2024,” Donnini said. “One reason is they added more centers, which made it easier to vote this year. There was more capacity to handle voters.”
He said more Democrats than Republicans are voting in Dallas County. “What we’re seeing, compared to 2024, is that turnout is just a little bit higher in Democratic areas and a little bit lower in Republican areas. But I want to caution that. So that could mean two different things: One, ultimately, Democratic turnout will just be better than Republican turnout compared to 2024. The second thing, though, is just that Republicans might vote later.”
Donnini said Tarrant County resembles that of Dallas County during the first three days of early voting.
“It’s the same as Dallas in the sense that it just looks a little more Democratic than it does in 2024,” he said. “So, for example, Tarrant is often a battleground county. So far, the people who have voted are just a little bit more blue than red compared to the history of past primaries. But the problem with all this kind of early voting, and looking at who’s voting, is that it doesn’t tell you who someone is voting for, and that’s crucial.”
When asked what needs to happen in Tarrant County for Talarico to win statewide, Donnini said, “We think Talarico needs to win probably six percentage points to win statewide.” Again, we talked a lot about participation. There are a few different areas. In the northeast part of Tarrant County, we have towns like North Richland Hills that are historically Republican suburbs. What he needs to do is reduce the Republican margins in these suburbs. Then in Fort Worth, for example, or South Arlington, those are bluer areas, but there’s a strong population of Asian and Hispanic voters that Donald Trump did well with in 2024. So for Talarico, he has to get back to Hillary Clinton’s margins, or else. Joe Biden’s margins in these areas, while making progress, reducing his deficits in the red suburbs, this is a state that Donald Trump won by 14 points. If you’re James Talarico or (Gina) Hinojosa, you need everything to get you through.
During the first three days of early voting in Collin and Denton counties, Donnini said it was a different story.
“So far, we have electorates that have more Republicans than Democrats, and we think they may have voted for Donald Trump by high single digits or double digits in 2024,” Donnini said. “So for Talarico, that means two things: One, you have to turn people around. To win a state like Texas, you need people who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 and who, for whatever reason, whether it’s Talarico, whether it’s Ken Paxton, or just dissatisfaction with the Trump presidency, have to change their vote for Texas to purple or even light blue. Then the second thing is you have to get your people to the over time. More Asian voters, younger voters, more Hispanic voters in Collin County need to get closer to Election Day.
Early voting continues until Friday, October 30 at 7 p.m. Election day is Tuesday, November 3.
This week’s full episode is available below:
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