This article was adapted from our premium politics newsletter, The Blast, which provides exclusive reporting, nonpartisan analysis and the first word on political movements across the state. Subscribe today.
Several counties reported record turnout on the first day of early voting, offering fresh tea leaves for election observers to analyze in the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico.
Harris County, the largest in the state and with the most votes, set its turnout record for the first day of midterm voting. Dallas County, meanwhile, saw its highest number of first-day early votes in its history.
The phenomenon is not limited to blue counties. The Republican stronghold of Montgomery County saw record turnout in the midterms, as did Ellis County in North Texas and Bell and McLennan counties in Central Texas.
As early voting continues and election observers run wild with their way-too-early predictions, Renzo Downey, senior editor of our premium newsletter The Blast, is here to guide you on how to interpret the onslaught of data.
Step #1: Give it a few days.
Campaign consultants on both sides warn that it’s difficult to learn lessons from a single day of early voting.
“You could probably ask a consultant from either party, and they would say that increased participation benefits their side,” said consultant Derek Ryan. told The Blast.
The first early votes will be tilted towards the party with the most enthusiasm, and both camps agree that it is currently the Democratic Party. The question, as early voting drags on, is whether Republicans can mobilize their supporters.
President Donald Trump is traveling to Lubbock and Waco next week for appearances with Paxton. These are two of the biggest red zones that Ryan says he will be monitoring over the next couple of weeks.
“There’s a heightened energy level among Democrats, and so they’ve been waiting two years to get to the polls,” Ryan said. “There’s only a limited number (of former Democratic primary voters) in the state, so once that pool starts to shrink, do Republicans start to make up some of the ground there?”
Step 2: Monitor new voters.
One cohort some consultants focus on is young and new voters. Independent consultant Samuel Temple said the more newcomers to politics, the better for Democrats.
“There’s an old adage that stable periods in the stock markets help you sleep at night, but market volatility pays the bills,” Temple said. “The same is probably true here. If Democrats want to flip statewide seats beyond Talarico and maybe (the railroad commissioner candidate) Jon Rosenthal), they need to see a lot of unknowns appear.
Step 3: Remember, high turnout also helped Republicans.
Republican consultant Ross Hunt said turnout would break all midterm election turnout records, but rejected the idea that analysts can determine which party enjoys high turnout. Like Ryan, Hunt said it would be a matter of each party mobilizing its base.
“Everyone always wants to know, ‘Well, if turnout is high, is that good for us?’ “, Hunt said. “There are some situations where there is an answer to this question, but generally the overall level of participation or the percentage of participation doesn’t really have a direct influence on the outcome.”
Hunt noted that the number of Republicans in the state has increased significantly since 2018, the last hotly contested midterm.
“Where Republicans really bleed, at least at the Senate ballot level, is when it comes to voters who don’t participate in private party primaries but have tended to vote Republican in the past,” Hunt said. “These voters are the ones who are really split in their vote, whereas most of the Democratic-leaning independents are all solidly aligned for Talarico, so that’s really what puts Paxton in a bad position right now.”
Ryan said he would monitor the previous 1.2 million Republican voters who did not participate in the March primary.
“These people were probably getting 10 text messages a day, multiple emails and phone calls and seeing all kinds of streaming ads,” Ryan said. “The fact that they did not show up makes us wonder why they did not show up to vote in such a contested Republican primary, and do they still intend to vote Republican in this election.”
Step 4: Monitor rural voters.
Another benchmark Ryan monitors is rural participation. Republicans need at least 25% of overall turnout to come from counties outside the 25 largest counties. Matte corner, a Democratic strategist and founder and director of the Lone Star Project, also cited a 25 percent rural vote share.
Angle said Democrats need the five largest counties to account for 40% of turnout. And when it comes to demographics, Democrats need the Hispanic vote share to be around 25% and the white voter share to be below 60%.
