Three days before the midterm elections, Democrats are heavily favored to win the House of Representatives but hold a more limited advantage in the Senate; there, several potentially decisive races remain within normal ballot error.
The outcome will determine which party controls the congressional agenda, runs committees and oversees President Donald Trump during the final two years of his term.
Why it matters
Midterm elections have historically created difficulties for the president’s party, allowing voters to control the White House without evicting its occupant. This year, this effect could extend beyond the House and threaten the Republican majority in the Senate (53 votes to 47).
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Democrats need a net gain of four seats to have full control, as Vice President JD Vance can break a 50-50 tie in favor of the Republicans. With several crucial races happening simultaneously, a slight error in national polls one way or the other could change the outcome in several states.
What you need to know
The following details have been verified by News week at 7 a.m. ET on Friday, October 30.
The Silver Bulletin, which updated its forecast on October 29, gives Democrats a 95.1 percent chance of winning the House, with an average projection of 240 Democratic seats to 195 Republican seats. He estimates their probability of controlling the Senate at 77.7 percent, with an average split of 53 Democratic seats to 47 Republican seats.
In his Oct. 29 update, Nate Silver said Democrats remain heavy favorites to take back the House. However, he added that poll results in Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Maine were each within the range of normal polling error.
The Decision Desk headquarters, last updated at 7:25 a.m. Oct. 29, gave Democrats an 80 percent chance of winning the House and a 60 percent chance of controlling the Senate. It called for 238 seats in the House and 52 seats in the Senate.
VoteHub gave Democrats an 89 percent chance of controlling the House and a 63 percent chance of controlling the Senate, including a 60 percent chance of winning both chambers.
The forecasts are not directly interchangeable because they rely on different assumptions about polls, political fundamentals and uncertainty.
They also differ from polling averages, which measure voters’ current preference rather than the likelihood of an eventual outcome.
Eight Senate races were within four points in at least one polling average reviewed by News week; this places them among the competitions most likely to determine control of the chamber.
Alaska
Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman and the first Alaska native to serve in Congress, is challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan.
The ballot also includes Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. Under Alaska’s ranked choice system, lower-ranked candidates are eliminated and their votes carry over until one candidate wins a majority.
Trump and Vance have argued that similar names could confuse voters, something Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. denies.
As of 7 a.m. Eastern on October 30, RealClearPolling’s average gave Peltola a 1.2-point advantage, 49.4 percent to 48.2 percent, based on surveys conducted October 1-16. Decision Desk HQ gave Peltola a 60 percent chance of winning and rated the race as a toss-up.
Bill Roth, Mariam Zuhaib/Anchorage Daily News via AP/AP, file
Iowa
Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former television journalist, and Democrat Josh Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist in wheelchair basketball, are separated by one of the narrowest averages in the country.
At the time of writing, RealClearPolling’s average gave Hinson a 0.5 point lead, or 46% to 45.5%, based on surveys conducted between September 29 and October 28.
The Decision Desk headquarters gave Republicans a 53% probability, thus treating Iowa as a toss-up.
Kansas
Democrat Adam Hamilton, founder of a Methodist megachurch, is trying to defeat Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic senator in nearly a century.
The RealClearPolling average gave Adam Hamilton a 0.2 point advantage, 46.1% to 45.9%, the slimmest margin of any race this election. News week analysis.
The Decision Desk headquarters gave Republicans a 58 percent probability and placed Kansas in its toss category.
Ohio
Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is seeking to return to the House against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to the seat previously held by Vice President Vance.
The RealClearPolling average gives Sherrod Brown a 2.6 point lead, 47.9 percent to 45.3 percent, based on polls conducted between October 5 and 26.
Decision Desk’s seat gave Democrats a 54% probability of winning Ohio, making it one of the tightest Senate races in its model.
Maine
Democrat Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and former state Senate president, is challenging Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term.
The RealClearPolling average gives Jackson a 1.4 point lead, 48.7 percent to 47.3 percent, based on surveys conducted from September 23 to October 26.
The Decision Desk headquarters gave Democrats a 57 percent probability and ranked Maine as a toss-up.
Michigan
Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, a doctor and former Detroit health director, faces Republican Mike Rogers, a former FBI agent and former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.
The RealClearPolling average gives Abdul El-Sayed a 3.2-point lead, 48.8 percent to 45.6 percent, based on a poll conducted September 28-October 27.
The Decision Desk seat gave El-Sayed a 72 percent chance of winning, the highest Democratic probability among the eight elections examined.
South Carolina
Republican Sen. Darline Graham Nordone, appointed after the sudden death of her brother Lindsey Graham, faces Democrat Annie Andrews in a race that has become more competitive than South Carolina’s recent voting history suggests.
The RealClearPolling page gives the Republican a 2.7 point lead, or 47.7 percent to 45 percent. The average covers polls conducted from September 28 to October 26.
Decision Desk Headquarters gave the Republican a 65 percent probability and rated the race as Lean Republican.
Texas
Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton are vying for a seat that would normally favor the GOP.
The RealClearPolling average gives James Talarico a 2.1-point lead, 48.6 percent to 46.5 percent, based on polling conducted Oct. 8-27.
Decision Desk headquarters gave Democrats a 60 percent probability and ranked Texas as a toss-up.
What happens next
No poll average or forecast guarantees a result. Turnout, the makeup of the electorate and the possibility of a polling error affecting several similar states in the same direction could still change which party controls the Senate.
Election day is November 3.
Newsweek reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here.
Contact Newsweek editors about this story: Sam Stevenson And James Debens
Sign up for our discussion on November 10, “Newsweek Webinar: How AI Politics Could Shape the Midterm Elections,” which will examine how AI politics played out in key races, the data centers, lobbying, and policy lines that emerged.
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